The first estimate for the 2016 harvest revealed that the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 206.5 million tonnes, 1.9% below the total crop harvested in 2015. This reduction was due to the lower forecasts for the North (-11,5%), South (-1,2%) and Central-West Regions (-4,5%).

The tenth estimate of 2015 for the national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounted for 210.6 million tonnes, 8.2% higher than that of 2014 (194.6 million tonnes) and 331,303 tonnes (-0.2%) below September's estimate. The estimated area to be harvested was 57.8 million hectares, with an increase of 1.9% in comparison with that of 2014 (56.5 million hectares) and a decrease of 23,982 hectares in relation to the previous month. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, and, together, represented 92.7% of the production estimate and accounted for 86.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 5.9% for the area of soybeans, of 1.3% in the area for corn and reduction of 6.1% in the rice area. Concerning production, the increases were of 3.0% for rice, 11.7% for soybeans and of 7.4% for corn.

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Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions
Participation in the production
October 2015

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Participation in the production
October 2015

In regional terms, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution:  Central-West, 89.7 million tonnes; South, 76.9 million tonnes; Southeast, 19.4 million tonnes; Northeast, 16.9 million tonnes and North, 7.7 million tonnes. Compared with the previous harvest, increases of 21.5% in the North Region, of 7.3% in the Northeast Region, of 5.2% in the Southeast, of 8.3% in the South Region and of 8.1% in the Central-West Region were reported. In the 2015 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.8%, followed by Paraná (18.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.4%). These states together accounted for 58.2% of the national forecast.

October estimate in relation to September 2015

The following production estimates stood out against September: sorghum (+4.3%), coffea canephora (+2.8%), beans - 3rd crop (+2.5%), coffea arabica (+1.9%), potatoes - 3rd crop (+1.3%), beans - 1st crop (-1.8%), beans - 2nd crop (-3.7%), wheat (-7.7%), barley (-7.8%) and oat (-9.8%).

POTATOES 3rd crop – The October´s estimated production of potatoes - 3rd crop was 846,045 tonnes, an increase of 1.3% in relation to the previous month. The planted area increased 1.7% and the average yield reduced 0.3%. Minas Gerais, which contributed with 35.6% to the production of this third crop, had its estimated production decreased by 0.4%, as well as its planted area (0.1%) and the average yield (0.3%). São Paulo estimated an increase of 5.9% in the production, as well as an increase in the planted area (5.8%) and in the average yield (0.1%).

COFFEE BEANS – The October´s estimate for the production of coffee was 2.6 million tonnes or 43.8 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 2.2% over September´s. The estimated production of coffea arabica rose 1.9%, due to reassessments of the harvested area, which increased 1.6%, and of the average yield, which increased 0.3%. São Paulo reported a production of 248,020 tonnes, an increase of 13.7% in relation to the previous month. The harvested area expanded 10.1% and the average yield, 3.2%. Minas Gerais (0.4%) and Espírito Santo (1.1%) also increased their production in relation to the previous month. In regard to coffea canephora, the estimated production reached 650.7 thousand tonnes or 10.8 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 2.8% over the previous month. Espírito Santo had its production estimate increased by 4.1%, due to the reassessment of the average yield, which rose at this same rate.

BEAN SEED - Compared with September, the estimates for the total planted area with beans and for the average yield decreased 0.5%, affecting the production estimate, which fell 2.0%. In this survey, the biggest producers were Paraná (23.9%), Minas Gerais (16.7%) and Mato Grosso (10.8%). The first crop was estimated at 1,258,883 tonnes, a drop of 1.8% against September´s estimate, reflecting the reduced forecast of the average yield (1.1%) and of the planted area (0.4%). In the October´s estimate, the biggest producers of this crop were Paraná (26.4%), Minas Gerais (12.9%) and Bahia (10.8%). The reduction of the expected production in the first crop was mainly due to the states of the Northeast, which contributed with 23.3% to the overall production and reduced the estimated average yield by 6.2%. The estimated national production of beans 2nd crop added up to 1,326,608 metric tons, according to the October´s survey, 3.7% lower than the September´s estimate. Such decrease followed the forecast of reduction of the planted area (1.3%) and of the average yield (0.6%). Mato Grosso produced 18.5% of this harvest and had its planted area reduced by 4.3% and its average yield decreased by 1.1%, leading to a production estimate 5.4% lower than that of September. In this survey, the three biggest producers of the second crop were Paraná (29.6%), Mato Grosso (18.5%) and Bahia (14.0%). For the third crop, the increase of 2.7% in the estimated planted area led to a rise of 2.5% in the expected production in relation to September, standing at 462,008 tonnes. The estimated average yield was 0.2% lower than that of the previous month. São Paulo, which produced 12.2% of the national production of the third crop, had its expected planted area increased by 25.9% and the expected average yield, by 7.1%. As a result, the estimated production rose 34.8%.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production of sorghum was 2.1 million tonnes, representing an increase of 4.3% over the previous month and involving positive reassessments in the harvested area (2.6%) and in the average yield (1.7%). The data were mainly influenced by Goiás, which was the biggest producer with a participation of 42.3% of the total sorghum to be harvested. Goiás had its production estimate increased by 6.1%, an increase of 4.9% in the average yield and of 1.2% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested. São Paulo had its production estimate revaluated, showing a rise of 57.3%, as well as an increase of 33.0% in the planted and harvested areas and an increase of 18.3% in the average yield. The production reached 67,469 tonnes.

WINTER CEREALS (GRAIN) - The estimated production of wheat reached 6,247,565 tonnes, a drop of 7.7% over the previous month. The area to be harvested did not drop, but the average yield fell 7.7%. The data were mainly influenced by the estimates of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, which dropped 2.0% and 20.6% in relation to the previous month, due to excessive rainfall and frost in a number of producing municipalities. As to oat, the production estimate reached 517,552 tonnes, a drop of 9.8% over the previous month. The area to be harvested recorded an increase of 0.4%, whereas the average yield dropped 10.1%. Unfavorable weather, like excessive rainfall and isolated frosts, caused the production estimate to fall, as was the case of Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%). As to barley, the production estimate hit 288,056 tonnes, a decrease of 7.8% in relation to the previous month. The area to be harvested and the average yield retracted by 0.6% and 7.3%, respectively. Having dropped its production by 25.2%, Rio Grande do Sul was responsible for this change.

October 2015 estimate in relation to the production of 2014

Among the 26 major products, nine registered a positive change in the production estimate over the previous year: paddy rice (3.0%), oat grain (19.8%), potatoes - 3rd crop (5.3%), barley grain (14.5%), castor beans (122.%), cassava (1.9%), corn grain - 2nd crop (15.0%), soybean grain (11.7%) and triticale grain (87.8%). Seventeen products recorded negative changes: upland cottonseed (2.5%), peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (10.3%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (39.3%), potatoes- 1st crop (1.7%), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.3%), cacao nuts (4.7%), coffee beans (arabica) (1.8%), coffee beans (canephora) (17.8%), sugarcane (4.2%), onions (2.6%), bean seed - 1st crop (10.5%), bean seed - 2nd crop (6.4%), bean seed - 3rd crop (2.2%), oranges (3.3%), corn grain - 1st crop (4.6%), sorghum grain (7.7%) and wheat grain (0.2%).

Perspectives for 2016 harvest

In October 2015, the IBGE carried out the first projection of the area and production for the 2016 harvest. This first estimate was carried out through field surveys and calculated projections. The information accounted for 58.6% of the estimated national production, while the projections accounted for 41.4% of the estimated overall.

In this first projection, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2016 was estimated at 206.5 million tonnes, 1.9% lower than the total crop harvested in 2015. This reduction was due to the lower forecasts for the North (-11,5%), South (-1,2%) and Central-West Regions (-4,5%).

Among the six more important products for the next summer harvest, three registered positive changes in the production: peanuts in the shell (5.3%), beans - 1st crop (23.3%) and soybeans (3.5%). Upland cotton (-4.1%), paddy rice (-2.%) and corn grain - 1st crop (-2.4%) recorded a negative change. Concerning the expected area, the following products posted positive changes: upland cotton (0.7%), rice (3.0%), beans - 1st crop (10.6%) and soybeans (0.5%), while peanuts - 1st crop (5.3%) and corn - 1st crop (1.7%) registered negative changes.

UPLAND COTTONSEED - In 2016, Brazil might follow the world trend to reduce the production of cotton. Four million tonnes were expected, 4.1% less than in 2015. This figure was influenced by the eventual drop of 4.7% in the average yield, estimated at 3,727 kg/ha.

PADDY RICE - The first production estimate of rice for 2016 reached 12.2 million tonnes, a reduction of 2.6% against the production of 2015. The area to be planted reached 2,264,544 hectares, representing an increase of 1.9%, whereas the expected average yield (5,393 kg/ha) fell by 5.4%.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop - The first estimate of the area to be planted was 1,740,526 hectares, 1.0% larger than that of 2015. In the area to be harvested, a growth of 10.6% was expected, as a number of crops in the Northeast Region were affected by droughts in 2015. The average yield might present a growth of 11.5%, as long as the weather conditions favor the crop growing. The estimated production of beans - 1st crop for 2016 was 1,552,572 tonnes, 23.3% bigger than in the 2015 harvest. This growth should partly offset the production loss that took place in 2015.

CORN GRAIN - 1st crop - The estimated production of corn in 2016 hit 28.9 million tonnes, a reduction of 2.4% in relation to 2015. The area to be planted might fall 5.3%, reaching 5,734,296 hectares.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - an increase of 0.4% was expected for the planted area in the 2016 harvest, reaching 32.2 million hectares. A rise of 3.0% was expected for the national average yield, hitting 3,111 kg/ha. As a result of the better expectations of planted area and average yield, the production in 2016 was estimated at 100.2 million tonnes, 3.5% bigger than that estimated in 2015.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.