The fifth estimate for the 2017 harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds amounted to 238.6 milhões de toneladas, 29.2% above that of 2016 (184.7 million metric tons). The estimated area to be harvested is 60.9 million hectares, having recorded increase of 6.7% versus the area harvested in 2016 (57.1 million hectares). The results of April point to increase of output and area, by 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main cops in this group, and accounted, together, for 93.4% of the output estimate and for 87.8% of the area to be harvested. Versus results in the previous year, there was increase of area for soybeans, rice and corn (respectively 2.1%, 17.2% and 3.9%). There was also increase of output: 17.2% for soybeans, 14.7% for rice and 52.3% for corn. The complete LSPA publication is available here.

In the current evaluation for 2017, Mato Grosso was the leader as main national grain producer, with participation in output of 25.6%, followed by Paraná (17.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.3%) which, together, represented 58.8% of the overall output expected. Other important states in the production of grain were Goiás (9.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.7%), Minas Gerais (6.0%), São Paulo (3.5%), Bahia (3.2%), Santa Catarina (2.8%) and Maranhão (1.9%), which also integrate the group of ten main producers in the country.

May estimate for the 2017 harvest surpasses April figure by 2.4%

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of May highlights changes recorded in the following output estimates, in comparison with April results: oats (28.7%), barley (22.3%), wheat (7.6%), sorghum (8.6%), corn - 2nd crop (4.4%), corn - 1st crop (2.4%), beans - 1st crop (1.6%), rice (1.1%), soybeans (0.9%), beans - 2nd crop (-1.2%), beans - 3rd crop (-1.3%) and cassava (-3.7%).

PADDY RICE - Climate conditions were beneficial to crops in the current harvest, and there were no problems caused by the excess of rain during the harvest period; therefore, high-quality products are expected. Reevaluations of output in Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso and Tocantins accounted for the increase of monthly output estimates. The results of May for the national harvest in 2017 point to a harvested area of 2.0 million hectares, with output of 12.2 million metric tons and average yield of 6,032 kg/ha, respectively 0.5%, 1.1% and 0.6% bigger in comparison with figures of the previous month.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The estimated wheat output, of 6.1 million metric tons, recorded an increase of 7.6% in relation to the previous month. Despite the negative reevaluation of 3.2% in planted area, the average yield was revised with an increase of 11.1%. Those data reflected Rio Grande do Sul and the increase of 36.9% in the average yield due to the positive expectations in relation to the climate. Rio Grande do Sul is the second main producer of this cereal, which accounted for 36.2% of the overall amount produced in 2017.

The output estimate for oats reached 889.0 thousand metric tons, with an increase of 28.7% in relation to the previous month. The area to be planted recorded an increase of 6.1% and the average yield, increase of 21.3%. In Rio Grande do Sul, the area planted with this cereal increased by 0.9%, and the average yield, by 30.0%. The state is expected to produce a totals 673.3 thousand metric tons, 41.8% in relation to the previous month.

The expected output of barley is 434.3 thousand metric tons, 22.3% more than in the previous month.

BEANS (grain) - In comparison with results of April, the estimate for the area planted with beans increased 1.6%; output increased 0.1% and the average yield recorded a decrease of 0.9%. In this survey, the main producers are Paraná, with 23.3%, Minas Gerais, with 16.3% and Goiás, with 9.8% of participation in the national output.

The estimated output of beans - 1st crop s 1.6 million metric tons. That, in comparison with the April estimate, reflects the increase of 2.0% in the estimated harvested area. The average yield was 0.3% below the figure in the previous month. The increased estimate for 1st-crop beans came mainly from the Northeast Region.

As for beans - 2nd crop, there was decrease of 1.2% in comparison with the April estimate, following the decrease of average yield (1.1%). The reduced output estimate resulted mainly from the contribution of Pernambuco, where the area planted recorded a decrease of 16.9% and the average yield, a decrease of 13.1% in relation to April, which led the ouput estimate to fall by 28.0%.

Considering beans - 3rd crop , there is an expected decrease of 1.3% in the output in relation to the previous estimate. The main producers in this case are Minas Gerais (39.4%) and Goiás (31.9%). In Minas Gerais, a decrease of 4.7% is expected in the production estimate, as a result of decreases of 4.3% in the area to be planted and of 0.5% in the average yield.

CASSAVA (grain) - The estimated output reached 20.0 million metric tons, with a decrease of 3.7% in relation to the previous month. The planted areas, with 2.1 million hectares, is 5.3% smaller, whereas the area to be harvested in the years, of 1.4 million hectares, is 4.3% smaller. The data reflected the decreases expected for Pará, the main producer in the country, accounting for 26.3% of the overall national output in 20216, with reduction of the area planted and of the area to be harvested by 18.3% and 18.5%, respectively, in relation to figures in the previous month. The output estimate recorded a smaller decrease, of 16.2%, due to the average yield 2.8% bigger. Pará is expected to produce 4.2 million metric tond, 813.4 thousand less than in the previous month. Paraná, the second main producer in the country with as participation of 16.9% in the national overall of 2016, is expected to produce 2.8 million tons in 2017, 1.6% more than in the preceding month. The state recorded the highest average yield in the country, 25,836 kg/ha.

CORN (grain) – With the decrease of corn – 1st crop and beginning of the safrinha (period between harvests when other products are grown on the same land), the record estimate is confirmed all over the country, with a new increment to the national output. The information obtained in May indicate that the output of corn this year is expected to be 97.0 million metric tons, surpassing by 3.7% the estimate for the previous month. This time, the data were mainly affected by the increase of average yield in the states, which recorded as positive change of 1.7% in the 1st crop, amounting to 5,538 kg/ha and 3.8% in the 2nd crop, which is expected to hit 5,475kg/ha.

Corn - 2nd crop was also revised in a positive way, with Mato Grosso as the main highlight, recording average yield of 11.5%. That had a direct impact on the state output, which is expected to reach 27.2 million metric tons, 12.9% above the previous estimate. Mato Grosso confirmed high average yields, expected to reach 5,937 kg/ha in this harvest. The area harvested in the state also had a positive change of 1.3% and is expected to reach 4 579 705 hectares. In Minas Gerais, the review sent the estimate downwards, once loss of output areas were detected for Paracatu (Northwest), Sardoá (Rio Doce) snd Cascalho Rico (Triângulo) due to drought. As a result, the state of Minas Gerais reduced by 1.5% the area to be harvested in the 2nd crop, expected to be 379.2 thousand hectares, amounting to an output of 2.0 million metric tons.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The output estimate reached 2.1 million metric tons, with an increase of 8.6% against the previous month. The planted area recorded an increase of 17.0%, and the average yield, decrease of 7.2%. Data of output estimates for the municipalities of São Paulo were included, amounting to 77.2 thousand metric tons. The most significant increases in the production of this cereal were those of Maranhão, 50.5 thousand metric tons; Piauí, 29.6 thousand metric tons more and Minas Gerais, 15.2 thousand metric tons more, as the climate still benefits crops in this first semester. The main producer of the current harvest is Mato Grosso, with 30.7 million metric tons or 27.0% of the national overall output. Paraná is the second main producer, with 19.5 million metric tons, or 17.2% of the national output. Rio Grande is the third main producer, and accounts for 16.3% of the national output.

SORGHUM (grain) - The output estimate reached 2.1 million metric tons, with an increase of 8.6% against the previous month. The planted area recorded an increase of 17.0%, and the average yield, decrease of 7.2%. Data of output estimates for the municipalities of São Paulo were included, amounting to 77.2 thousand metric tons. The most significant increases in the production of this cereal were those of Maranhão, 50.5 thousand metric tons; Piauí, 29.6 thousand metric tons more and Minas Gerais, 15.2 thousand metric tons more, as the climate still benefits crops in this first semester.

May estimate versus 2016 output

Among the 26 main products, 16 recorded a positive percent change in the output estimate in relation to the previous year: