The fifth estimate for the 2015 national output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds amounted to 204.3 million metric tons, 5.9% above that of 2014 (192.9 million metric tons) and 3,332,05 metric tons (1.7%) above the April estimate. The estimated area to be harvested is 57.5 million hectares, presenting increase of 2.0% in comparison with the area harvested in 2014 (56.4 million hectares), representing an increase of 11,585 hectares versus the previous month. Rice, corn and soybeans - the three main products in this group – represented, together, 91.9% of the national output estimate and accounted for 86.0% of the area to be harvested. In relation to comparison with the previous year there were decreases of area by 5.4% for soybeans, by 0.8% for corn and decrease for rice, by 3.4%. In terms of output, increase was recorded: 2.1% for rice, 11.4% for soybeans and 0.4% for corn.

The complete publication can be seen at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Among the Major Regions, the production volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central West, 84.0 million metric tons; South Region, 77.1 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.7 million metric tons; Northeast Region, 18.5 million metric tons; and North Region, 6.0 million metric tons. In comparison with the previous harvest, there were increments of 10.3% in the North, 17.7% in the Northeast and 4.2% in the Southeast. In this evaluation for 2015, Mato Grosso was the leader as the major producer of grains, with participation of 24.2%, followed by Paraná (18.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.1%), which, together, accounted for 58.6% of the expected national output.

Comparison of estimates: May and April 2015

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of May, versus April figures, changes in the output of the following products stand out: upland cotton (+3.7%), rice (+1.3%), coffea arabica (+2.7%), beans - 1st crop (-3.4%), beans - 3rd crop (+6.5%), corn 1st crop (-0.9%), corn - 2nd crop (+6.6%), soybeans (+0.7%) and wheat (-6.1%).

UPLAND COTONSEED – At an advanced stage of vegetative development, this crop presents an output estimate of 4.0 million metric tons, 3.7% above that of the previous month. The good climate in Mato Grosso and Bahia, the main producing states, affected the estimated average yield, which rose from 3,741 kg/ha to 3,835 kg/ha, with hike of 2.5%, in comparison with the April figure. Mato Grosso is expected to represent 56.9% of all the national output. With a planted area of 570,508 hectares and average yield of 3,955 kg/ha, the estimated output is 2.3 million metric tons, 1.6% bigger than in April. Bahia presents increase of 8.9% this month versus the previous one, and reaches the amount of 1.2 million metric tons. The increase of the estimate resulted both from the expansion (3.3%) of the planted area and from the increase (5.4%) of average yield, which changed from 3,423 kg/ha to 3,608 kg/ha, a considerable change of 185 kg/ha.

RICE - The May estimate for the national harvest in 2015, presents a harvested area of 2.3 million hectares, with an output of 12.4 million metric tons and average yield of 5,648 kg/ha, respectively 0.1%, 1.3% and 1.2% bigger, when compared with data of the previous month. The South Region accounts for 78.9% of the national output. Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer in the country, with 68.8% of the national output, presents an estimate of production of 8.5 million metric tons and average yield of 7,617 kg/ha, respectively 1.7% and 1.8% above those in the previous month. The harvested area is 0.1% smaller. The climate was adequate throughout the crop harvest, contributing to the increase of product quality and to the slight increase of the average yield.

COFFEE (bean) - The output estimate for coffee this month amounted to 2.6 million metric tons or 43.2 million 60 kg sacks, pointing to increase of 1.9% in relation to the previous month. The data reflect the improvement of climate conditions and crop treatment in the main producing areas of Minas Gerais, a state which accounts for 54.2% of the country's output. Minas Gerais accounts for 71.5% of the output of coffea arábica, with an estimated output of 1.4 million metric tons in the month, increase of 3.8% in relation to April. The average yield increased 4.2%, having changed from 1,353 kg/ha to 1,410 kg/ha.

BEAN (seed) - The estimate for the area planted with beans decreased 0.2% in May 2015, versus the April result. The output estimate also fell by 0.7%, in spite of the increase of average yield (1.1%). In this survey, the main producers are Paraná, with 22.3%, Minas Gerais, with 16.1% and Bahia, with 11.3% of participation in the national output. The 1st crop of beans is estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, which represents decrease of 3.4% in relation to the April estimate, reflecting the 1.8% decrease in planted area and of 4.5% in the area to be harvested. In terms of average yield, there was increase of 1.0%. In the My estimate, the biggest producers of this bean crop were Paraná (22.7%), Ceará (13.4%) and Minas Gerais (11.2%). The reduction of the estimated output for this month was mainly affected by the estimates of the states in the Northeast Region, Ceará (-14.6%), Piauí (-22.9%) and Paraíba (-36.2%). In Ceará, the reduction of production resulted from the scarcity and delay in the rain period, which resulted from the exclusion of this product in the municipalities if Quixeramobim and Jati; reduction in Boa Viagem, Lavras da Mangabeira and the decrease of income in Senador Pompeu and Pereiro. As for beans 3rd crop, together with the increase of 7.0% in the estimated planted area, the expected output is now 440 thousand metric tons, with increase of 6.5%. Minas Gerais is the main producer for the 3rd harvest, with 46.2% of participation in the national total, without significant changes in the estimates in relation to April. Goiás, the second main producer of this crop, with 26.9% of the total amount produced in the country, kept the April estimates. Mato Grosso, the third biggest producer, increased its estimated planted area by 78.3%, influenced by the recovery of prices of this product. This increase of area, together with the rise of 4.2% in the estimated average yield, points to increase of 85.9% in the production estimate.

CORN GRAIN - The total production of corn estimated for this harvest is 79.0 million metric tons, with hike of 3.6% compared with the previous month, and reflecting the significant Ooutput increase of 6.6% for beans 2nd crop. The output estimate of corn - 1st crop fell 0.9% in comparison with that of April. The end of the harvesting period brought data on the consequences of the drought faced by the Northeast Region of the country, which recorded decrease of 7.2% in comparison with the previous month. In Bahia, the main producing state in the Northeast with 7.7% of the national output, the estimate is supposed to have fallen by 12.5%, reaching 2.4 million metric tons. The average yield was reduced by 8.6%, amounting to 4,317 kg/ha or 72.0 sacks/ha. The three biggest producing states, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais and Paraná, recorded slight recovery of estimates in relation to April figures. Minas Gerais increased its average yield estimate, which changed to 5,619 kg/ha, 0.9% above that of April, and also recorded increase of 0.5% in the harvested area. This change influenced the output, which, this month, increased 1.4%, resulting in an expected total of 5.5 million metric tons. Rio Grande do Sul estimates an output of 5.6 million metric tons, with hike of 2.5% in relation to April, whereas Paraná expects increase of only 0.2% in output, amounting to 4.7 million metric tons. According to data from GCEA/PR, the commercialization of this crop in the state has taken place properly. Throughout May, prices charged by producers ranged more frequently between R$ 18.50 and R$ 21.50 for a 60 kg sack. Up to the end of the month 70% of the production will probable have been traded. Corn 2nd crop was benefited by the increase of rain, notably in Mato Grosso, a state which recorded rise of the production estimate in May in relation to the previous month (14.8%), equivalent to 2.43 million metric tons, with output estimated at 18.8 million metric tons. The estimated average yield increased 8.0% from April to May, having changed from 5,147 kg/ha to 5,561 kg/ha, 414 kg/ha bigger. Paraná increased its output estimate to 10.4 million metric tons, with increase of 3.4%in relation to the previous month. This hike resuls from the 3.3% increase in the average yield, which changed to 5,487 kg/ha or 91.5 sacks/ha. The country as a whole expects a harvest of 48.5 million metric tons in this 2nd crop of corn, 6.6% more than in the previous month.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The estimated output for soybeans is 96.3 million metric tons, with hike of 0.7% in relation to April, which is equivalent to 647,476 metric tons more. This increase results from the hike of 0.7% in the harvested area. Mato Grosso, the main national producer of this legume, expects to face slight decrease of 0.2% in output, which is now 27.6 million metric tons, mainly due to the decrease of 1.1% in the average yield, reevaluated in May at 3,099 kg/ha or 51.7 sacks. Rio Grande do Sul recorded increase of 3.2% in the output in comparison with the previous month figure, reflecting favorable climate conditions, and expecting an output of 15.6 million metric tons. The average yield grew by 3.0%, amounting to 2,976 kg/ha or 49.6 sacks/ha.

WHEAT GRAIN - The output estimate is 7.3 million metric tons, in an area to be planted of 2.5 million hectares, respectively 6.1% and 10.5% smaller when compared with figures in the previous month. The expected average yield, of 2,914 kg/ha, is 4.8% bigger. The South Region, the main producer, accounted for 92.1% of the national total, and expects an output of 6.7 million metric tons, in a planted area of 2,3 million hectares, respectively, 6.6% and 11.2% smaller than in the previous month. The expected average yield, of 2,888 kg/ha, is 5.1% bigger. In Paraná the planting of the cereal amounts to 62% of the expected total. The crops already initiated are in the stages of germination (20%) and vegetative development (80%), according to data from GCEA/PR. In Rio Grande do Sul, a total 11% is supposed to have already been planted in the state. Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, in the current estimate, account for 88.5% of the national output.

May 2015 estimate versus 2014 output

Among the twenty six main products, twelve recorded positive percent change in relation to the previous year: peanuts in husk 1st crop (0.3%), peanuts in husk 2nd crop (2.4%), paddy rice (2.1%), oat grain (54.1%), coffee bean - arabica (0.9%), barley grain (22.1%), bean grain - 1st crop (4.2%), castor beans (139.0%), cassava (4.2%), corn grain - 2nd crop (0.7%), soybean grain (11.4%) and wheat grain (18.9%). Fourteen products recorded negative change: upland cottonseed (7.6%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.7%), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.6%), potatoes - 3rd crop (20.6%), cacao nut (10.6%), coffee bean - canephora (16.9%), coffee beans - canephora (13.0%), sugarcane (1.5%), onions (5.1%), bean seed - 2nd crop (1.8%), bean seed - 3rd crop (6.4%), orange (7.0%), corn - 1st crop (0.3%), sorghum grain (9.4%) and triticale grain (15.6%). Soybeans (9,837,268 t) recorded the most significant increment in output, in absolute figures, surpassing by 2.0 million metric tons the 2014 figure. In this annual comparison, the biggest negative change, in absolute figures, was that of sugarcane (-10,028,915 t).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.