In January 2017, in the seasonally adjusted series, the national industrial output showed negative change of 0.1% over the previous month, after accumulating an expansion of 2.9% in the last two months of 2016. In the comparison with the same month a year ago (not seasonally adjusted), the industry overall recorded growth of 1.4% in January 2017, interrupting 34 consecutive months consecutive of negative results in this kind of comparison.

The annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – with a decrease of 5.4% in January 2017, remained reducing the pace of decline started in June 2016 (-9.7%). The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM -PF) can be accessed here.

Indicators of Industrial Output by Major Economic Categories

Brazil - January 2017

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally adjusted-series

12 of 24 sectors surveyed with negative rates

From December 2016 to January 2017, 12 of the 24 segments surveyed reported negative rates, with a highlight to the 10.7% drop in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, which interrupted two months in a row of output expansion, when it accumulated a 18.7% gain. Other important negative contributions came from the activities of computer, electronic and optical products (12.5%), machinery and equipment (-4.9%), manufacturing of wearing apparel and accessories (-7.0%) and rubber products and plastic material (-3.8%). It is worth highlighting that those activities recorded positive rates in December 2016: 17.7%, 1.6%, 10.8% and 8.0%, respectively.

On the other hand, among the 12 months which expanded the output this month, the most important performances for the overall average were recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.0%) and pharmaceuticals (21.6%), with the former offsetting part of the 5.6% drop accumulated in the last two months of 2016; and the latter recovering the 19.4% loss occurred between September and December last year. Other positive highlight on the national overall came from food products (1.2%), beverages (5.5%), mining and quarrying industries (1.1%), basic metals (1.8%), non-metallic mineral products (2.6%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.3%) and other transportation equipment (6.4%).

Among the major economic categories, comparing with the previous month, durable consumer goods (-7.3%) and capital goods (-4.1%) had the sharpest negative rates in January 2017, with the former one eliminating part of the 12.0% gain accumulated in the last two months last year; and the latter intensifying the drop of 3.8% recorded in December 2016.

The producing sectors of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (3.1%) and of intermediate goods (0.7%) registered the positive results this month, with the former advancing 7.4% in two consecutive months of output growth; and the latter accumulating an expansion of 3.2% in the last three months.

Quarterly moving average up 0.9%

Still concerning the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average for the industry overall pointed to an increase of 0.9% in the quarter ended in January 2017 against December last year (0.5%), interrupting the downward trend started in July 2016.

Among the major economic categories, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, semi- and non-durable consumer goods (2.1%) recorded the highest advance this month and intensified the 0.7% expansion seen in the previous month, when the category interrupted eight consecutive months of output decline. The producing sectors of durable consumer goods (1.2%) and of intermediate goods (1.0%) also signaled positive rates in January 2017, with the former keeping the upward trend started in October 2016; and the latter registering the highest positive result since August 2012 (1.3%). On the other hand, the segment of capital goods (1.6%) registered the only drop this month and kept the negative behavior started in September 2016.

Industrial output increases 1.4% in relation to January 2016

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector grew 1.4% in January 2017, pointing to prevalence of positive figures in the four major economic categories, in 16 out of the 26 sectors, 47 out of the 79 groups and 52.8% out of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth observing is that January 2017 had 22 days workdays, two more than January 2016 (20).

Among the activities, mining and quarrying (12.5%) exerted the greatest positive influence on the formation of the industry average, pushed, to a great extent, by the items iron ores, crude petroleum oil and natural gas. Other relevant positive contributions to the national overall came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (5.2%), computer, electronic and optical products (18.0%), pulp, paper and paper products (6.9%), food products (1.6%), basic metals (4.2%), wearing apparel and accessories (13.3%), textiles (10.8%), other chemicals  (2.2%), leather articles, travel goods and footwear (5.0%).

On the other hand, among the ten activities which had reduction in the output, the main influence on the industry overall was recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-11.1%), pushed, to a great extent, by the item diesel fuel. It is also worth highlighting the negative result coming from electrical machinery and apparatus (-8.6%), machinery and equipment (-4.9%), fabricated metal products (-6.2%) and other transportation equipment (-9.4%).

Capital goods (3.3%) and durable consumer goods (3.2%) recorded the sharpest drops among the major economic categories. The segments of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (2.1%) and of intermediate goods (0.8%) also posted positive rates in the monthly index this month, with the former recording expansion above the level observed in the average national (1.4%); and the latter registering the most moderate growth among the major economic categories.