The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 - IPCA-15 changed 0.15% in March, well below the change of 0.54% in February. The index never registered such a low figure in March since 2009, when it stayed at 0.11%. Considering the monthly results, this was the lowest rate since August 2014, when the IPCA-15 stood at 0.14%. The IPCA-E, which is the cumulative IPCA-15 in the quarter, stayed at 1.00%, below the rate of 2.79% relative to the first three months in 2016. The cumulative index in the last 12 months decreased to 4.73% and stood below the rate of 5.02% posted in the immediately previous 12 months. In March 2016, the rate was at 0.43%.

The complete data of the IPCA-15 can be accessed here.

Once mitigated the strong effects of the adjustments in tuition usually practiced in the beginning of the year and concentrated in the February indexes, the IPCA-15 decreased from 0.54% to 0.15%. Although the Educationgroup registered the highest group change (0.87%), it significantly declined the index from one month to the other, as well as accelerated it between January and February. The following table shows it.

The rate of 0.87% in the Education group was influenced by the rise of 5.43% recorded in Fortaleza, whereas other areas did not surpass 1.86%, the rate posted in the metropolitan area of São Paulo. Some areas even registered slight decreases in tuition, which was the case in Belém (-0.23%) and Goiânia (-0.06%).

Except for the expenditures with Housing – which increased to 0.64%, while staying at 0.18% in February – and Wearing Apparel – which changed from -0.31% to -0.02% –, the other groups of products and services surveyed recorded rates below those posted that month.

Concerning the group of Housing, the rise pressure was exerted by electricity, whose bills rose 2.45% and took this item to lead the ranking of the major impacts on the index in March (0.08 percentage points). As a result, electricity accounted for 53% of the IPCA-15. Coupled with changes in the PIS/COFINS rates, the change of the tariff flag from green to yellow, in force since the first day of March, caused the bills to increase. That was because consumers began to pay R$2.00 for each 100 kWh of electricity consumed.

Besides Education (0.87%) and Housing (0.64%), the groups of Health and Personal Care (0.48%) andPersonal Expenses (0.30%) rose, whereas the others dropped. Among them, food products (-0.08%) stood out, since a number of them became cheaper between February and March. It was the case of carioca beans(-10.36%), black beans (-8.27%), whole chicken (-2.39%) and meat (-1.31%).

In regard to the group of Transportation (-0.16%), the result was due to the drop in the prices of fuel (-1.34%), since the liter of gasoline became 1.06% cheaper and that of ethanol, 2.69%.  Airfare also dropped (-9.71%).

At group level, the most intense drops were in Communication (-0.31%) and Household Articles (-0.30%).

Concerning the regional indexes shown in the table below, only the metropolitan area of Curitiba accelerated the rate from February (0.25%) to March (0.37%), as a result of the change of 14.56% in urban bus. Nevertheless, the highest index was registered in Fortaleza (0.57%), pressed by the result of the Educationgroup (5.43%). The lowest index was recorded in Goiânia, in which fuel (-1.55%) and meat (-2.54%) contributed to the drop of 0.17%.

In order to estimate IPCA-15, the prices collected from February 14 to March 14, 2017 (reference) were compared with the ones in force from January 13 to February 13, 2017 (base).  The indicator refers to families with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, and also Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.