In September, the retail trade shrank 0.5% over the previous month for the volume of sales, the eighth negative result in a row, whereas the nominal revenue remained virtually stable (0.1%) for the second consecutive month, both in the seasonally adjusted series. As to the moving average index, the volume of sales recorded a negative change of -1.0%, for the third month in a row, whereas the revenue has held steady (-0.1%) since December 2014. In the other comparisons, obtained from the unadjusted original series, the retail trade recorded, as to the volume of sales, a decrease of 6.2% over September of the previous year, the sixth negative rate. As a result, the cumulative rates stood at -3.3% in the year and -2.1% over the last 12 months. For the same indicators, the nominal revenue of sales recorded change rates of 1.8% in September, 3.5% in the year and 4.5% in 12 months, respectively.

In the seasonally adjusted series, the extended retail trade - which includes retail and the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material - recorded again a negative change on margin, with decrease of 1.5% in relation to August. The nominal revenue stood at -1.2%. In relation to the same period in the previous year, the extended retail trade recorded drops of 11.5% for the volume of sales and of 4.4% for the nominal revenue. Concerning the cumulative rates, the figures were: -7.4% in the cumulative index of the year and of -6.0% in the last 12 months, for the volume of sales, and of 1.1% and 0.1% for the nominal revenue, respectively.

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Eight of the ten activities surveyed recorded negative change

Between August and September the changes were of -0.5% in the retail trade and of -1.5% in the extended retail, with prevalence of negative results, in eight of the ten activities. In order of importance, the rates were: Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (-4.0%); Other personal and household articles (-3.8%); Office, computer and communication equipment and material (-1.7%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-1.6%); Construction material (-1.5%); Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-1.4%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-0.8%); Fuels and lubricants (-0.7%). On the other hand, Furniture and household appliances (0.0%), after seven consecutive drops, stayed stable this month. The sector with the greatest weight in the retail structure, Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (0.1%), remained virtually stable by the second month in a row.

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, in terms of volume of sales, all the eight activities of retail registered negative changes. The main highlight was furniture and household appliances (-17.9%), followed by hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (-2.2%); fuels and lubricants (-8.7%) and fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-12.9%). These segments account for more than 80% of the global rate. In the other sectors, the results were: books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-14.9%); office, computer and communication equipment and material (-9.7%), other personal and household articles (-7.0%); and pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-1.1%), the latter with the first decrease in the time series.

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF THE VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE  AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE,
ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACIVITIES: PMC - July 2015

Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally Adjusted Series. (2) The indicator of the retail trade comprises the results of activities from 1 to 8. 
(3) The indicator os the extended retail trade comprises the results of activities from 1 a 10.

Furniture and household appliances, with decrease of 17.9% in the volume of sales in relation to September last year, exerted the main impact on the formation of the rate. In cumulative terms, the drops were of -13.0% in the first nine month of the year and of -9.6% in the last 12 months. The negative behavior of this sector has resulted from factors such as credit restrictions, mainly due to the interest rate rise in credit loans for individuals, which went from 28.2% per year in September 2014 to 37.4% per year in September 2015, according to the Central Bank, besides the influence in the reduction in the real wage bill, with decrease of 6.1% over the same month in the prior year.

The sector of hypermarket, supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco, even though with September's result (-2.2%) below half of August's rate (-4.8%), represented the second greatest negative impact in the rate's formation. The performance of this activity was influenced by the decrease in the real income, besides food prices' behavior, which increased above the overall index in the 12-month period: 10.0% in the group food at home, versus 9.5% of the overall price average, according to the IPCA. The cumulative rates in the volume of sales were of -2.3% for the first nine months of the year and of -1.7% for the last 12 months.

Fuels and lubricants, down 8.7% in the volume of sales in relation to September 2014, were the third negative contribution to the overall retail figure. In cumulative terms, the activity rates were of -4.4% for the first nine months of the year and of -2.9% for the last 12 months. The high in the prices of fuels, with 11.1% of change in 12 months, above the average change of prices (9.5%), according to the IPCA, has been influencing on the negative performance of the sector.

The sector of fabric, wearing apparel and footwear, with a change of -12.9% in September in relation to the same month a year ago, shared with fuels and lubricants the third greatest contribution to the composition of the overall rate of retail. The results for the cumulative indicators were: -7.3% in the year and -5.2% in the last 12 months. Even with the price of wearing apparel (3.7% in 12 months) staying below the general average of prices, according to the IPCA, the performance of the activity keeps growing below the overall average of retail.

The activity of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, with a rate of -1.1%, registered the first negative result of the time series for the volume of sales. In the cumulative indicators for the first nine months of the year and for the last 12 months, the changes reached rates of 3.6% and 4.7%, respectively.

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITIES: PMC - SETPEMBER 2015
(Indicators of the volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the participation of the sectoral results in the formation of the global rate.

Extended retail falls 11.5% compared with September 2014

The extended retail trade, comprising the retail trade plus the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material, recorded a drop of 11.5%, in relation to September 2014 for the volume of sales and of -4.4% for the nominal revenue. The cumulative rates were -7.4% in the year and -6.0% in the last 12 months for volume of sales, and -1.1% and 0.1% for nominal revenue, respectively. This performance reflected mostly the behavior of sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which presented for the volume of sales a drop of 21.8% over September 2014. As to the cumulative rates, the changes were: -16.1% in the first nine months and -14.3% in the last 12 months. The reduced sales in this segment were due to the gradual reduction of credit and to the restrictive budget of families, as a result of the deceleration of the real wage bill. As to the sector of construction material, the change in the volume of sales was of -12.8% over September 2014. In cumulative terms, the rates stayed at -6.4% in the nine first months of the year and -4.9% in the last 12 months. The lower pace of the economic activity might be influencing the sector's performance.

Retail down 3.0% between Q2 and Q3, with drops in all activities

For the volume of sales, in the seasonally adjusted series, the retail trade decreased 3.0% in the third quarter of 2015 in relation to the previous quarter. In the extended retail, the rate was of -2.9% in the same comparison. The ten activities surveyed presented negative rates between the second and the third quarter of 2015 (adjusted series): office, computer and communication equipment and material (-6.4%); furniture and household appliances (-5.4%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-5.2%); fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-4.0%); construction material (-3.7%); vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (-3.2%); fuels and lubricants (-2.7%); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco (-2.2%); other personal and household articles (-2.0%) and pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-1.1%).

In the comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, the retail, shrinking 5.7% in the third quarter of 2015, signaled the third negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and the sharpest drop since the first quarter de 2003 (-6.1%). The gradual reduction in the pace of sales throughout 2015 is clear between the first (-0.8%) and the second quarter (-3.5%), and the latter and the third quarter (-5.7%). The downward trend is widespread among the activities, present both at the sectors with a negative rate in the first three quarters of the year and at the activities with positive rates in the first two quarters of the year and negative change in the third quarter, such as the case of office, computer and communication equipment and material (-7.5%) and other personal and household articles (-3,2%). The segment of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics also lost pace throughout the year, but it was the only one to keep a positive change in the third quarter (0.6%).

In the extended retail trade, the volume of sales of the third quarter, compared to the same period in the previous year, had a change of -9.3%, staying below the rate of the second quarter (-7.5%). The activity of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, with a change of -16.9%, kept the same result of the previous quarter (-16.9%). The segment of Construction material had a rate of -9.7%, against -5.0% in the second quarter.

Retail results were negative in 23 of the 27 Federation Units

Between August and September 2015, in the seasonally adjusted series, the retail trade recorded drops in 23 of the 27 Federation Units. The biggest ones were recorded in Maranhão (-5.3%) and in Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.0%). Among the states with positive changes over August, the highlights are São Paulo (1.5%) and Alagoas (1.7%).

Over September 2014, the volume of sales fell in all states, except for Roraima, which advanced 2.0%. The main decreases occurred in Amapá (-18.9%), Paraíba (-15.0%) and Alagoas (-13.2%). Concerning the contribution to the rate, the highlights were São Paulo (-4.0%); Rio de Janeiro (-6.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-8.9%).

In relation the extended retail, all the 27 states presented negative changes in comparison with the same period in the previous year, with highlight, in terms of volume of sales, for Tocantins (-23.2%), Espírito Santo (-22.8%) and Maranhão (-21.4). The state with the greatest negative impact was São Paulo, with rate of -5.4%.