Retail sales in the country changed -0.3% from September to October, after growing 0.5% in the previous month. The sector accumulates an increase of 1.6% in the year and 1.5% in 12 months. In this scenario, retail operates 4.4% above the pre-pandemic level, recorded in February 2020, and 2.0% below the highest level in the time series of the Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC), reached in October of the same year. The data was released today (13) by the IBGE.

“The changes are very close to zero since February, standing at stability in all months except for March (0.7%), May (-0.6%) and July (0.7%). That shows a return to the trend before 2020, after the sharpest changes that we saw in the pandemic period, with even smaller numbers than the pre-pandemic ones. But in the medium-run deadline, the scenario is positive with growth in the cumulative indices of the year and in 12 months”, analyses survey manager Cristiano Santos.

He emphasized that there was prevalence of negative rates between the activities, with 5 of the other sectors surveyed registering negative results. Office, computer and communication equipment and material (-5.7%), Fabric, apparel and footwear (-1.9%), Hyper and supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.8%), Fuels and lubricants (-0.7%) and furniture and household appliances (-0.1%). With positive results are Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (2.8%), Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic  articles and toiletries (1.4%) and Other personal and household articles (0.2%)

“The activity that had the biggest negative effect was Office equipment and material, but there were also activities with a higher weight, as Hypermarkets and supermarkets and Fuels driving the index down. Among positive results, the upward influence was driven by the activity of Pharmaceutical Products. The activity of Books and newspapers had a higher change, but its weight is small”, he explains.

As to the activities, Mr. Santos highlighted the behavior of the activity of Hyper and supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.8%), which interrupted four months of positive results. About the 5.7% decrease in Office, computer and communication equipment and material, the manager says its partially due to the dollar trend, going up since September.

Another highlight was the activity of Fuels and lubricants (-0.7%): the activity had been recording revenue gain, but with the real gain reduced due to the inflation effects. In October, the activity had a sharper decrease in revenue (-1.6%) than in volume (-0.7%). It should be noted that the upward trend of the activity in the volume indicator in the second half of 2022 was associated to a price reduction policy for gasoline, started in July 2022, making the base of comparison high.

As to extended retail, the volume of sales changed -0.4% between September and October. Both the activity of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (0.3%) and of Construction material (2.8%) stood positive over October. However, the activity of Specialized wholesale in food products, beverages and tobacco, which do not have such release in the survey, influenced the general index in a negative way”, said the manager.

Retail falls by 0.2% against October last year

The volume of sales of the Brazilian retail changed 0.2 over October 2022, the fifth positive result in this comparison. Six out of the eight activities surveyed recorded negative figures in November.  Fuels and lubricants (-9.5%), Other personal and household articles (-8.4%), Office, computer and communication equipment and material (-6.8%), Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-4.8%), Fabrics, apparel and footwear (-3.4%) and Furniture and household appliances (-0.4%). 

On the other hand, two activities presented growth: Pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries (9.2%) and Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.9%). As to the activities of the extended retail (2.5%), Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces recorded 10.5%, Construction material grew 6.4% and Specialized retail in food products, beverages and tobacco had increase of 8.8% in relation to October 2022.

Sales shrink in 17 Federation Units over September

Between September and October, the extended retail trade recorded negative figures in 17 out of 27 Federation Units, with a highlight to: Rio de Janeiro (-2.0%), Santa Catarina (-1.4%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-1.3%). On the other hand, accounting for positive contributions were 10 states, with a highlight to Maranhão (3.1%), Bahia (1.9%) and Tocantins (1.9%).  

In the same comparison, in the extended retail trade, the change between September and October 2023 was of -0.4%, with negative results in 11 of the 27 Federation Units, especially in: Mato Grosso do Sul (-2.4%), Rio de Janeiro (-2.3%) and São Paulo (-1.9%). Conversely, exerting a positive impact were 14 states, with a highlight to Sergipe (11.2%), Roraima (8.2%) and Tocantins (7.2%). Rio Grande do Norte and Mato Grosso registered stability (0.0%) from September to October.

More about the survey

PMC produces indicators to monitor the short-term behavior of retail trade in Brazil, investigating the gross revenue of formal enterprises with 20 or more employed persons and whose major activity is retail trade.

Having started in 1995, the PMC presents monthly results of changes in sales volume and nominal revenue for retail trade and extended retail trade (cars and construction material) for Brazil and Federation Units. The results are available at  Sidra. The next PMC release will be on January 17.