Between September and October, the Brazilian industrial output changed 0.1%, maintaining the less dynamic behavior noticed along the last months, reinforced by null change (0.0%) in the cumulative indexes in the year and over the last 12 months. These data come from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM), released today (1) by the IBGE.

The broad economic categories showed a widespread profile of negative rates, with three out of four broad segments dropping their outputs.

“With the advance of 1.6%, food products exerts the major positive impact and accumulates a surplus of 3.0% since last July. On the other hand, the sectors of petroleum products and biofuels and of mining and quarrying industries exerted the major negative influences on the average rate of the industrial sector, both of them retreating once again after advancing in the previous month,” analyzes André Macedo, manager of the survey.

The manager also highlights that, even with the slight positive surplus recorded over the last three months, the industrial sector is still 1.6% below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020 and 18.1% below the peak of the time series, hit in May 2011.

Fourteen out of 25 activities investigated in the survey grew their production. In addition to food products, which advanced 1.6% and was the major positive influence, other relevant positive contributions to the overall industry came from pharmchemicals and pharmaceuticals (3.7%),  machinery and equipment (2.4%), fabricated metal products (2.3%0, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (0.9%), beverages (1.6%), electrical machines, appliances and material (2.3%) and rubber and plastic products (1.3%).

Among 11 activities that dropped, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.4%) and mining and quarrying industries (-1.1%) exerted the major impacts in October 2023, the former interrupting three consecutive months of growth, a period in which it accumulated an expansion of 2.0%, and the latter offsetting part of the advance of 5.9% reported in the previous month. The retreat in the sectors of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-2.6%) and of printing and reproduction of recorded media (-5.8%) should be highlighted as well.

Among the broad economic categories, still comparing with September, intermediate goods (0.9%) was the only positive rate in October, after advancing in the previous month (0.6%), when it interrupted four consecutive months of retreat in the production, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 1.2%.

In contrast, the sector producing durable consumer goods (-2.4%) registered the most intense drop this month and recorded the second consecutive month of retreat in the output, accumulating a reduction of 6.7% in this period.

The segments of capital goods (-1.1%) and of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) also reported negative figures in October 2023, both of them registering the second consecutive negative rate and accumulating losses of 3.2% and 2.1% in this period, respectively.

Expansion of industry is of 1.2% in the inter-annual comparison

Compared with October 2022, the industrial sector grew 1.2%, with positive figures in two out of four broad economic categories, 12 out of 25 sectors, 36 out of 80 groups and 46.5% of the 789 products surveyed. Among the activities, the major positive influences on the overall industry were reported by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (10.8%) and food products (4.3%).

The sectors of beverages (8.8%), wood products (18.3%), rubber and plastic products (4.2%), chemicals (1.4%), textiles (7.2%), mining and quarrying industries (0.5%) and furniture (6.9%) expanded in October as well.

“This result marked the third consecutive month of growth in the output after declining 1.2% last July, when it interrupted two consecutive months of positive figures in this type of comparison. However, this month´s index maintains the characteristic of widespread profile of negative rates, reaching 13 out of 25 industrial sectors surveyed. Therefore, a larger number of activities on the negative side is noticed for the 14th month in a row in this type of comparison,” highlights Macedo.

Among the 13 activities on the negative side, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-7.1%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-15.6%) and machinery and equipment (-6.5%) exerted the major influences.

Other important negative impacts came from basic metals (-3.5%), electrical machines, appliances and material (-6.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-5.3%), miscellaneous manufacturing (-7.8%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-4.1%), fabricated metal products (-2.8%) and pharmchemicals and pharmaceuticals (-2.8%).

More on the survey

PIM Brazil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product of the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. March 2023 marked the beginning of the release of the new time series of monthly indexes of the industrial production, after a redesign to update the sample of activities, products and informants; create a new weighting structure of the indexes based on the most recent industrial statistics; update the base year of reference of the survey; and incorporate new Federation Units in the release of regional results of the survey. These methodological changes are required and they aim at incorporating the economic changes of the society. The results of the survey can also be checked on the Sidra database. The next release of the Industrial Production - Brazil, with November´s results, will be on January 5.

Keywords: Produção industrial varia 0, 1% em outubro e segue mostrando menor dinamismo