Inflation preview
IPCA-15 shows deflation of 0.07% in July, driven by drop in electricity charges
July 25, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 27, 2023 01h53 PM
After nine months in the positive field, the inflation preview was -0.07% in July. There was a drop of 0.11 percentage points in relation to the rate a month ago (0.04%). The main negative impact on this result came from retreat in residential electricity (-3.45%), after the inclusion of Bonuses from Itaipu, granted in invoices issued in July. These data como from the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (25) by the IBGE. Fuel recorded an increase of 44.83% in the year and of 48.0% in 12 months.
Besides residential electricity (-3.45%), the drop in prices of bottled gas (-2.10%) also influenced a retreat in Housing (-0.94%), one of the items which mostly affected the index. Water and sewage fees (0.20%) is among the items recording increases. The increase was a consequence of price rises observed in three areas: 8.33% in Belém (3.18%), since May 28th; 3.45% in one of the concessionnaires of Porto Alegre (0.77%), starting on July 1st; and 8.20% in Curitiba (0.25%), since May 17th.
Among the groups analyzed by the survey, the other main influence on the general index came from Food and beverages (-0.40%), whose result is related to the deflation of food at home (-0.72%). Among food products with falling prices, the highlights are pinto beans (-10.20%), soybean oil (-6.14%), long life milk (-2.50%) and meat (2.42%). On the other hand, potato (10.25%) and garlic (3.74%) became more expensive this month.
Among the increases, Transportation (0.63%) stood out. The advance took place due to the rise of gaoline prices (2.99%), which recorded the main positive impact (0.14 p.p.) among the subitems surveyed. Vehicles gas also rose (0.06%), whereas diesel diesel (-3.48%) and ethanol (-0.70%) faced deflation. With these results, fuels recorded an increase of 2.28% in July.
Among the increases, Transportation (0.63%) stood out. The advance took place due to the rise of gaoline prices (2.99%), which recorded the main positive impact (0.14 p.p.) among the subitems surveyed. Vehicles gas also rose (0.06%), whereas diesel diesel (-3.48%) and ethanol (-0.70%) faced deflation. With these results, fuels recorded an increase of 2.28% in July.
Also relevant is the rise of 4.70% in airfares, which had risen by 10.70% in June. As for decreases, the highlights are new cars (-2.34%) and used cars (-1.05%), besides urban buses (-0.72%), with the impact of retraction (25.0%) in the fares of Belo Horizonte (-5.17%), starting on July 08th.
Six of the 11 areas surveyed dropped in July. The biggest increase was that of Porto Alegre (0.34%), due to the increases in gasoline (3.78%) and airfares (13.87%). Deflation registered in Goiânia (-0.52%), the highest among the areas, was related to the drop of 7.31% in residential electricity.
Mais sobre a pesquisa
The methodology for IPCA-15 is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from June 15 to July 13, 2023 (reference) and compared to those in force from May 16 to June 14, 2023 (base).
The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. See the complete results at Sidra. The next release of IPCA-15, relative to August, will be on the 25th next month.
