IPCA-15
Inflation preview for June is 0.04%
June 27, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 28, 2023 02h00 PM
The inflation preview for was 0.04%, after the 0.51% recorded in May. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) released today (27) by the IBGE points out that the biggest change (0.96%) and the biggest impact (0.14 percentage points) came from the Housing group. The Transportation group (-0.55%), in view of the fall in fuel prices, pulled the rate down. Gasoline (-3.40%) was the subitem with the greatest individual impact (-0.17 p.p.) in the June IPCA-15.
The IPCA-E, quarterly accumulated IPCA-15, was 1.12%, lower than the rate of 3.04% recorded in the same period last year. In the last 12 months, the IPCA-15 change was 3.40%, below the 4.07% registered in the previous 12 months. In June 2022, the rate was 0.69%.
Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, six had increase in June. And in addition to Transportation, two other groups registered a decrease: Food and beverages (-0.51%) and Household items (-0.01%).
In the Housing group (0.96%), the highlights are the increase in the water and sewage fee (3.64% and 0.06 pp) applied in capitals such as Curitiba, São Paulo, Recife and Belém, and the increase in energy residential electricity (1.45% and 0.06 pp) in Belo Horizonte, Recife, Fortaleza and Salvador. However, there was a drop in piped gas (-0.33%) due to tariff reductions in Curitiba and Rio de Janeiro.
In Personal Expenses (0.52%), the 6.19% rise in gambling stands out, after an average increase of 15.00% in the value of bets. Cinema, theater and concerts (1.29%) and tour packages (1.07%) also registered increases in the month.
The result of the Health and personal care group (0.19%) was influenced by the increase in the prices of health plans (0.38%), due to the rise of up to 9.63% authorized by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) on June 13, effective from May 2023 – and whose cycle will end in April 2024. Thus, the monthly fractions of May and June were accounted for in the June IPCA-15.
In Transportation (-0.55%), the negative change was driven largely by the drop in fuels (-3.75%). In addition to gasoline (-3.40%), other fuels also suffered a decrease in prices: diesel fuel (-8.29%), ethanol (-4.89%) and vehicle gas (-2.16%). Furthermore, new car prices fell by 0.84% and contributed with -0.03 pp to the month index. Also in Transportation, airfares increased by 10.70%, after falling by 17.26% in May. And the increase of 0.99% in urban buses is due to the increase of 33.33% in Belo Horizonte.
There was also deflation in the Food and beverages group (-0.51%). Food at home registered a drop (from 1.02% in May to -0.81% in June) while food away from home prices slowed down (from 0.73% to 0.29%).
In relation to regional indices, four areas rose in June. The biggest change was registered in Recife (0.45%), due to increases in residential electricity (8.21%) and in the water and sewage fees (4.61%). The lowest change occurred in Goiânia (-0.66%), influenced by the 4.42% drop in gasoline prices.
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology used is the same as the IPCA, the difference is in the price collection period and geographic coverage. Prices were collected in the period from May 16 to June 14, 2023 (reference) and compared with those in force from April 14 to May 15, 2023 (base).
The indicator refers to families with an income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and the municipality of Goiania. See the full results on Sidra database.
The next release of the IPCA-15, referring to July, will be on July 25th.
