With the change of -0.2% in the national industrial output in February over January, five out of 15 places surveyed by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) retreated as well. The steepest drops in this period came from Rio Grande do Sul (-6.9%) and Mato Grosso (-4.9%). These two states had retreated in the previous month. In the cumulative index in the year, the industry fell 1.1% and the negative figures were spread along 11 out of 18 places surveyed by this indicator. In the cumulative rate in 12 months, the negative change reached nine out of 15 places. The data were released today (26) by the IBGE.

In January, the industrial output in Rio Grande do Sul had fallen 4.6% and, with the February´s result, it accumulated a loss of 11.2%. “The national industrial production registered the third consecutive negative figure between January and February, accumulating a loss of 0.6% in this period. The biggest influence on the February´s decline came from Rio Grande do Sul, which was impacted by the sectors of petroleum derivatives and vehicles,” explains Bernardo Almeida, an analyst of the survey.

The researcher states that the collective vacations in the sector of vehicles in February impacted the industrial output of this segment in Rio Grande do Sul, as well as the national result. “This sector has been decreasing the pace of production due to the rising prices of raw material and shortage of inputs and, on the consumption side, to the loss of purchasing power of families with inflation still at a high level. That does not favor the production of this type of industry, which decreases the overproduction by granting collection vacation, causing the pace to drop,” states him.

São Paulo (-0.7%), the state responsible for nearly 33% of the Brazilian industrial output, retreated for the third consecutive month, accumulating a drop of 4.7% in this period. The result of the São Paulo industry in February exerted the second biggest negative influence on the national index. “The food industry influenced this drop with the impact on this sector caused by the embargo of the Brazilian meat by the Chinese government in the last week of February. Another explanation for that drop is the production strategy of the segment concerning its production chain, since it accumulated a gain in the last months of 2022,” analyzes Almeida.

On the other hand, the retraction of the production in Mato Grosso was mainly impacted by the chemical sector. “This segment reduced the production of fertilizers. The industry in this state also suffered the impact of the negative results of petroleum derivatives and of the food sector, since beef is one of the major products within this segment,” says the analyst.

Goiás (-2.5%) and Ceará (-1.9%) retreated in February as well. On the positive side, Pernambuco (8.8%) recorded the highest expansion this month and the second advance in a row, accumulating a gain of 27.1% in the period. Having reported a negative change of 0.2% in the previous month, Bahia (4.9%) registered the second highest expansion and the second biggest positive influence on the national result among the places surveyed. The other positive figures came from Minas Gerais (3.3%), Pará (2.7%), the Northeast Region (2.5%), Santa Catarina (1.8%), Espírito Santo (1.6%), Amazonas (1.6%), Rio de Janeiro (1.1%) and Paraná (0.4%).

The result of Minas Gerais was the major positive influence on the national index. “This is the second consecutive positive rate of the production in Minas Gerais, which accumulates a gain of 4.7% in the period. The positive impacts came from the sectors of basic metals and  machinery and equipment,” assesses Almeida.

Industry retreats in 12 of 18 places in the inter-annual comparison

The industry retreated 2.4% over February last year and, in regional terms, 12 out of 18 places surveyed followed the negative result. The sharpest drops were registered in Rio Grande do Sul (-13.3%), Mato Grosso (-13.0%) and Ceará (-11.4%). In the case of the Rio Grande do Sul industrial production, the drop was mainly related to the sector of petroleum derivatives.

In contrast, the chemical and food sectors impacted the result of Mato Grosso in the comparison with the same period last year. Among the major influences on the negative result over February 2022 in Ceará is the drop in the performance of the sectors of wearing apparel and basic metals.

Other places that retreated in this comparison were the Northeast Region (-6.3%), Bahia (-6.1%), Pará (-4.9%), Pernambuco (-4.8%), Santa Catarina (-4.6%), São Paulo (-4.5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.4%), Goiás (-2.7%) and Espírito Santo (-0.6%).

“On the dropping side, the major influence was the output in São Paulo, which recorded negative figures in 12 out of 19 activities surveyed. The sector of petroleum derivatives was a highlight, impacted by the decrease in the production of diesel fuel, motor gasoline and naphthas. Ranked in the second position, the sector of computer, electronic and optical products suffered the impact of the drop in the output of cell phones and portable computers,” said him.

In the beginning of the month, the results of the Regional  PIM were released for the first time after the updating in the selection of samples of enterprises and local units, list of products and the inclusion of three new places: Rio Grande do Norte, Maranhão and Mato Grosso do Sul. In February, the Rio Grande do Norte production advanced 1.9% compared with the same period a year ago. “The major positive influence on this result came from the food sector, with the increase in the output of peanuts, cashew nuts, Brazil nuts and the like, either roasted or salted,” points out the researcher. The food sector represents 13.6% of the total industrial output in this state.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the drop of 3.4% was influenced by the sector of pulp, paper and paper products. “This is a very active segment in the state and, within this activity, the production of pulp dropped. Another impact came from the sector of petroleum derivatives and biofuels, with the drop in the output of ethyl alcohol,” says Almeida. In Maranhão, the pulp sector impacted positively on the advance of 6.3%.

More about the survey

The Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It presents, every month, indexes for 17 Federation Units, each one accounting for at least 0.5% of the national value of manufacturing, and also for the Northeast Region as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The survey results can also be consulted on Sidra, the IBGE database.