Industrial production changed by -0.3% from December to January, after a null change (0.0%) in the previous month. With these results, this sector is still 2.2% below the pre-pandemic level (February 2020) and 18.5% below the record level of May 2011. In comparison with January 2022, there was a change of 0.3%. In 12 months, industry reached a cumulative decrease of 0.2%.

These are the results of the Monthly Industrial Survey - PIM, released today (30) by the IBGE. This is the first release of the new series of the survey, which has gone through changes in the selection of samples from companies, adjustment in the price of products and activities, besides methodological adaptations to portray economic changes in society. These expected updates are regularly implemented by the IBGE.  

The average result of January comes after a null change (0.0%) in December 2022, with the interrption of two consecutive months of increase, a period marked by an increase of 1.5%. “Although industrial production has somehow improved in the end of the year, due to the positive result in the last few months of 2022, it starts 2023 with production losses and is still far from recovering from recent losses,” says André Macedo, manager of the survey. 

Mr. Macedo explains that, in January 2021, industry surpassed the pre-pandemic level, being 4% above it. Noevertheless, both supply and domestic demand accounted for the decrease of production. “Besides the factors that had an impact on the disposable income of families - high inflation for food products, a high interest rate affecting the granting of credit and leading to debts, workers in informal activities or out of the job market - industry was also affected by restraints in supply, difficulty to obtain raw material, electronic components and input for the production of final goods,” he says.

Fom December to January, three of the four major categories and 11 of the 25 sectors surveyed recorded reduction in production. Among the activities, the main negative contributioons came from: pharmaceuticals (-13.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-6.0%), food products (-2.1%) and food products (-2.1%).

As for pharmaceuticals, the researcher highlights that volatility is a characteristic of the sector. “Besides being an activity that oscillates significantly between months, there is also a high basis for comparison, since the sector has had a sequence of positive results for three months, with a cumulative increase of 27.1%.”

The sector of vehicles makes more significant the decrease of 3.7% registered in December 2022. According to Macedo, the sector was influenced by the decrease in the production of trucks since January 2023, due to the tranistion into a new techinoogy that reduces the emiission of polluting gases.  

“In addition to this specific factor, which also accounts for the reduced production of capital goods, it is also observed there was decrease in the production of cars, also affecting durable consumer goods. This decrease in production of cars follows the trend of a domestic market that has had no reaction,” Mr. Macedo contextualizes.  

In the case of food products, the manager explains the activity had recorded increase for three consecutive months, a period marked by an increase of 19.7%. “Besides this high basis for comparison, two groups call attention: sugar and meat, including beef, poultrt meat and pork. This negative behavior, so far, has been more specific rather than representing a downward trend of the segment.”

The main positive impact, in turn, came from the mining and quarrying sector, with an increase of 1.8% after two months of negative results and a cumulative decrease of 7.7%. “Besides the depreciated basis, both petroleum and natural gas recorded increase, which accounted for the advance,” said the manager.

Calendar effect and low basis for comparison cause industry to record a change of 0.3% from January

Against the same period in 2022, the industrial sector advanced 0.3% in January 2023, with positive figures in two of the four major economic categories, 9 out of 25 sectors surveyed.

“Despite the positive change, there is a predominance of negative activities The calendar effect also stands out - January 2023 had one business day more than the previous January and that adds to a positive perfromance. Besides the very basis for comparison, as in January 2022 the sector fell by 5.6%.”

Among the activities, the main positive contributions came from food products (4.6%), pharmaceuticals (34.1%), mining and quarrying industry (2.0%) and other transportation equipment (27.0%). Among the 16 activities with a decrease in production, non-metallic mineral products (-10.6%), wood products (-21.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2.1%) and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-12.6%) accounted for the main influences.

More on the survey

PIM Brasil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. From May 2014, the release of a new series of monthly industrial production indices began, after a reformulation to: update the sample of activities, products and respondents; prepare a new weighting structure for the indices based on the most recent industrial statistics, in order to harmonize with the needs of the implementation the National Accounts Series - reference 2010; and to adopt the new classification of activities and products used by other industry surveys from 2007 onwards, namely: the National Classification of Economic Activities - CNAE 2.0 and the List of Industrial Products - PRODLIST-Industry.

The survey results can also be consulted at the Sidra database.