Industrial output recorded a positive change (0.1%) from March to April, third consecutive month of increase, with a cumulative rise of 1.4%. Nevertheless, in the first four months of 2022, the sector also has cumulative decrease of 3.4% and, in the last 12 months, the cumulative index fell 0.3%, first negative result since March 2021 (-3.1%). These are the results of the Monthly Survey of Industry - PIM, released today (June 3rd) by the IBGE.

André Macedo, manager of the survey, explains that, there has been improvement, yet mild, in the performance of industry, characterized by the last three months of positive results. Nonetheless, this change is still insuficient to make up for losses from the past. “The cumulative gain of 1.4% in the period Feb-Apr does not make up for the decrease of 1;9% registered in January. Although in the last 6 minths industry has had 5 positive rates, it is still 1.5% below February 2020 and 18% below the series peak, in May 2011.” 

According to the researcher, this improvement is related to the end of sanitary restrictions, but the factors that impede the resumption of industry remain: industrial plants still notice he rise of production costs and reflect the scarcity of some types of raw material, which justifies the smaller intensity of industrial production.

“From the perspective of household demand, high interests have made difficult the access to credit, impede investments; inflation at high levels reduces the income of families, the labor market has not yet recovered and the wage bill does not progress. So, families have fewer resources to make household demand foster consumption and production,” Mr. Macedo contextualizes.

In April, the industrial sector recorded an increase in 16 of the 26 activities surveued, and the activity accounting for ht ebiggest positive influence was that of coke, petroleum products and biofuels, with an increase of 4.6%. “This activity had recorded negative results in for two consecutive months, a period which recorded a loss of 2.6%, with resumption of the production pace in April,” says the researcher.

Other activities that accounted for the positive change in April were: beverages (5.2%) and other chemicals (2.8%).

On the other hand, among the ten activities that recorded decrease, food products (-4.1%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-4.2%) accounted for the main impacts. “Food products recorded decreases for the second month in a row, strongly related to the production of sugar. However, before these decreases, the activity had recorded increases for 4 months, and kept a positive balance in the last six months,” Mr. Macedo says.

Two of the four major economic categories recored increase, semi and non-durable consumer goods (2.3%) and intermediate goods (0.8%). On the other hand, producers of capital goods (-9.2%) and durable consumer goods (-5.5%) recorded decreases in the month, both interruptinhg two consecutive months of increase in production, a period marked by cumulative advances of 12.1% and 3.8%, respectively.

Production fell 0.5% against April 2021

Against the same month last year, the industrial sector dropped 0.5% in April 2022, with negative figures in two of the four major economic categories, 18 of the 26 sectors, 56 of the 79 groups and 59.4% of the 805 products surveyed. It is also a highlight that April 2022 had 19 business days, one less than April 2021.

Among the activities, a highlight was the decrease in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-7.6%), food products (-4.7%), electric machinery and apparatuses (-16.7%) and metal products (-11.3%).

“The activity of motor vehicles is an example of activity that faces difficulty of access to raw material and electronic components, causing deceleration in production and interruptions in work shifts. After increases in March, results were negative once again in April, but the pace is still predominatly negative, and remained 16.9% below the pre-pandemic level. That is also the activity recording the biggest negative cumulative increase in the year,” says the researcher.

In the group of eight sectors that recorded increase, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (19.9%) accounted for the main influence. Other important positive impacts were those of other chemicals (11.0%), beverages (13.2%) and pulp, paper and paper products (2.8%).

Among the major economic categories, durable consumer goods (-13.2%) and capital goods (-5.1%) recorded negative rates in April 2022. On the other hand, producers of semi and non-durable consumer goods (3.3%) and intermediate goods (0.1%) advanced in the month.

More about the survey

PIM Brazil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. The release of a new series of monthly industrial production indices began in May 2014, after a reformulation to: update the sample of activities, products and respondents; prepare a new weighting structure for the indices based on the most recent industrial statistics, in order to harmonize with the needs of the implementation the National Accounts Series - reference 2010; and to adopt the new classification of activities and products used by other industry surveys from 2007 onwards, namely: the National Classification of Economic Activities - CNAE 2.0 and the List of Industrial Products - PRODLIST-Industry.

The survey results can also be consulted at the Sidra database.