National industry
After two years of rise, industrial production closes 2019 down 1.1%
February 04, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 05, 2020 06h43 PM
The national industry production decreased 1.1% in 2019, after two consecutive years of growth in 2017 (2.5%) and 2018 (1%). However, there was a reduction in the intensity of losses from the first (-1.4%) to the second half of the year (-0.9%), compared to the same periods in the previous year. Even so, the month of December saw a fall in production, both in relation to November (-0.7%) and in relation to December 2018 (-1.2%), as well as against the last quarter of the year (-0.6%).
This information was released today (4) by the IBGE is from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM-PF). “The effects in mining and quarrying industry negatively influenced the results, due to the Brumadinho’s dam rupture in 2019”, says the survey manager, Mr. André Macedo. Mr. Macedo highlights that if the mining and quarrying sector (-9.7%) was out of the calculation, the change in industrial production would be 0.2% in the year.
However, Mr. Macedo says that other factors contributed to this scenario. “16 out of the 24 surveyed activities edged down in the year. The industrial production might have been affected by the uncertainty in the external environment. It can also have been affected by the situation of the labor market in the country, which, despite having increased, still affects the domestic demand”, he comments.
On the positive side, the influence was consumer goods, both durable and non-durable. “The advance in the labor market and the release of FGTS withdrawals pumped money into the economy, influencing this activity”, says Mr. Macedo.
Capital goods decreases in December, the sharpest drop since May 2018
In the fall of 0.7% of the industrial activity from November to December 2019, three out of the four major economic activities and 17 of the 26 surveyed sectors showed reduction in production.
Among the major economic categories, the sharpest fall was in capital goods: 8.8%, the most intense retreat since May 2018, when a negative rate of 18.5% was recorded. The category maintained the prevailing negative behavior since May 2019, accumulating a reduction of 12.9% in this period.
The most important negative influences among the activities were recorded in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-4.7%), which accumulated a retreat of 9.7% in three consecutive months, and machinery and equipment (-7.0%), which increased the loss of 2% verified in November 2019. On the other hand, among the sectors that expanded its production, the most important performance was recorded in coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.2%), which sharpened the upward trend noticed in the previous month (1.7%).
Rebound in ores and advance in fuels in relation to December 2018
The fall of 1.2% in December 2019, in comparison with same month in the previous year, was evidenced in the negative results in two out of the four major economic categories and in 14 out of 26 surveyed sectors, although December 2019 had one additional business day.
Among the activities, mining and quarrying industry (-12.2%) was the major negative influence over the industry average, under the pressure, mainly, of iron ore. Regarding the activities in expansion, the main influence was recorded in coke, petroleum products and biofuels (10.8%), leveraged mainly by the manufacture of fuel oils, naphthas for petrochemicals and motor gasoline.
Out of the major economic categories, the negative highlight in December compared to December in the previous year was also capital goods (-5.9%). Additionally, the sectors of durable goods (1.6%) and semi- and non-durable goods (1.2%) recorded positive results in the comparison.
Last quarter in the year recorded less sharp losses
On a quarterly basis, the intensity of losses fell in the total of industrial production from the third (-1.2%) to the fourth (-0.6%) quarter of 2019, explained by the increase in dynamism verified in three out of the four major economic categories, with the highlight to durable goods (from 1.1% to 3.3%), besides semi- and non-durable goods (from 1.0% to 2.0%), which had the third consecutive quarter of upward trend in production. The capital goods sector (from 1.2% to -3.5%) was the only sector that recorded loss of pace between both periods, thus, interrupting two consecutive quarters of positive rates.
