Industrial prices changed 0.13% in January 2025 over December 2024, the twelfth positive figure in a row. In this same comparison, prices of 14 out of 24 industrial activities rose. The cumulative index in 12 months stayed at 9.69. The IPP had been -0.24% in January 2024.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) of the Mining and Manufacturing Industries measures the evolution of the prices of products "at the factory gate", free from taxes and freight, and encompasses the broad economic categories.

In January 2025, industrial prices changed 0.13% over December 2024. Fourteen out of 24 industrial activities investigated in the survey registered positive price changes over the immediately previous month. On the other hand, 22 activities had recorded lower average prices in December against the previous month.

The four highest changes recorded were: electrical machinery and apparatus (1.85%), other chemicals (1.72%), oil refining and ethanol production (1.49%) and mining and quarrying industries (-1.49%).

In the comparison with December, food products were the most relevant sector of industry in the composition of the aggregate result. This activity was responsible for -0.22 percentage points (p.p.) of influence on the change of 0.13% in general industry. Still in this area, other activities that also stood out were petroleum refining and biofuels, with 0.15 p.p. of influence, other chemicals (0.14 p.p.) and mining and quarrying industries (-0.07 p.p.).

The cumulative index in 12 months reached 9.69% in January. In the previous month, the indicator had reached 9.28%. The sectors with the four highest price changes in the comparison between January and the same month in the previous year were: basic metals (26.77%), tobacco (17.47%), other transportation equipment (17.32%) and wood (15.69%).

The sectors that mostly influenced the aggregate result were: food products (3.36 p.p.), basic metals (1.59 p.p.), other chemicals (1.10 p.p.) and petroleum refining and biofuels (0.83 p.p.).

Among the broad economic categories, the result of January was as follows: 0.53% of change for capital goods (BK); -0.19% for intermediate goods (BI); and 0.53% for consumer goods (BC), with a change of 1.24% for durable consumer goods (BCD), and 0.39% for semi and non-durable consumer goods (BCND).

The major influence came from consumer goods, whose weight in the composition of the overall index was 37.34% and accounted for 0.20 p.p. out of the change of 0.13% in the mining and manufacturing industries.

Intermediate goods (accounting for -0.11 p.p.) and capital goods (for 0.04 p.p.) complete the list. In the case of consumer goods, the influence noticed in January was 0.07 p.p., due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and 0.12

As for the cumulative index in 12 months, the change in prices of capital goods amounted to 6.99% in January 2025. The prices of intermediate goods, in turn, changed 8.93% in this period of one year and the change in consumer goods was 11.40%, being that durable consumer goods changed their prices by 4.90% and semi and non-durable consumer goods, by 12.73%.

Weighting 55.06% in the calculation of the overall index, intermediate goods accounted for 4.95 p.p. out of 9.69% of cumulative change in 12 months in industry, in the reference month. In the result of January 2025, consumer goods also influenced 4.19 p.p. and capital goods, 0.54 p.p.

The result of consumer goods was especially influenced in 0.31 p.p. by durable consumer goods and by 3.89 p.p. by semi and non-durable consumer goods, the latter with a weight of 84.02% of that broad category.
Mining and quarrying industries: after three consecutive positive figures, the change in the prices of products of mining and quarrying industries was, on average, -1.49%. The annual figure also returned to the negative side (-1.15%), after remaining on the positive side in the months of November (2.09%) and December (5.00%) 2024. In the monthly comparison, the sector registered the fourth most intense change, the only negative change among them, besides being the fourth biggest influence (-0.07 p.p.).

The negative change accounted for the retreat in the prices of minerals, both ore and non-metallic, since the product from the extraction of petroleum and natural gas recorded a positive change.

Food products: after nine consecutive months of increasing prices in the comparison between the current month and the immediately previous month, the result was -0.84% in January 2025, more intense than that of March 2024 (-0.36%), the first negative figure along these months. With the January´s result, the cumulative index in 12 months changed from 13.80% in December to 13.64%.

The sector reported the major influence in the monthly comparison (which matches the cumulative index in the year), -0.22 p.p. out of 0.13% and, in the cumulative index in 12 months, 3.36 p.p. out of 9.69%.

The products "roasted and ground coffee" and "VHP sugar (very high polarization)"stood out both in terms of change and influence. In the case of coffee, the change was positive (the only one among the most influential products) and it has repeated due at least to two reasons: currency (despite the valuation of the real against the dollar in January, 1.2%, the devaluation was 22.5% along the last 12 months) and climate issues, decreasing the world supply. On the other hand, the reduction in the prices of sugar was in-line with the period of harvesting sugarcane. "Fresh or cooled beef" and "residues from soybean extraction" completed the list of the most influential products. The valuation of the real impacted on the price of meat, though the reduction was also caused by a lower demand, as pointed out by some companies. Besides the marginal valuation of the real in the case of soybeans, the global supply of the product is huge, highlighted by Brazil, which has led to the reduction of its prices. It is worth pointing out that the joint influence of those products was -0.98 p.p. out of -0.84%, leading to a net influence of 0.14 p.p. of the other 39 products selected in this sector.

Petroleum refining and biofuels: the prices in the sector registered a positive change for the third month in a row, being the highest one among them (1.49%). As a result, the cumulative index in 12 months changed from 1.47% in December to 8.14% in January, the highest change since July 2024 (14.17%).

The sector stood out as the third highest change (positive) in the monthly comparison and the second influence in the monthly comparison in January (0.15 p.p. out of 0.13%) and the fourth one in the annual comparison (0.83 p.p. out of 9.69%).

Among the highlights either by the intensity of the change or by the influence on the sectoral result, three products appear in the two cases: "Biodiesel" was among those with the most intense change (negative in this case), which was coherent with the retreat in the price of "soybean oil", an important raw material, but not among those with the biggest influence. In this case, "gasoline, except for aviation" stood out, the second weight (23.05%) in the sector, only behind "diesel fuel" (40.74%), which, in turn, was not a highlight neither as change nor influence.

Other chemicals: the chemical industry stood out in January both due to its monthly result and to the cumulative figure in 12 months. Having the third highest weight in the calculation of the IPP (8.01%), the sector rose 1.72% in January and highlighted as the second highest change in the monthly indicator among all the sector surveyed, besides having the third biggest influence (0.14 p.p. out of 0.13%). Compared with January 2024, the sector accumulated a rise of 14.31%, the highest one since August 2022 (25.72%), highlighting as the third biggest influence on this indicator among the other activities (1.10 p.p. out of 9.69%).

The positive change in the average prices of the sector between December and January was followed by two economic groups that are disseminated: "manufacture of inorganic chemicals" rose 1.46%, mainly leveraged by the manufacture of manure and fertilizers, and "manufacture of resins and elastomers", which rose 3.43% as a result of the influence of the higher prices of thermoplastic resins, like PVC. In contrast, the group of "manufacture of agricultural defensives and household disinfectants" recorded a negative change in the monthly indicator (-1.05%).

In the increase of 1.72% in the average prices practiced in January, the following products stood out positively in terms of influence: "NPK-based manure or fertilizers", "dyes and varnishes for printing" and "insecticides for agricultural use". On the other hand, the drop in the average prices of product "fungicides for agricultural use" stood out as well.

In the perspective of the most influential products on the result of 14.31% in the cumulative indicator in 12 months, the highlights were "NPK-based manure or fertilizers", "chemical or mineral fertilizers or manure, phosphate-based" and "polypropylene (PP)", which were sold at higher prices in the factory´s gate compared with January 2024. It is worth highlighting that the two first products belong to the group of "manufacture of inorganic chemicals", which accumulated a rise of 23.12% over the last 12 months and it was the group that mostly influenced the sectoral result in this indicator. The third product was from the group of "manufacture of resins and elastomers", which also stood out with a cumulative rise of 20.53% in the period.

Basic metals: the price change in this activity was -0.54% in January in relation to the previous month, standing on the negative side after a series of 13 positive consecutive figures in this indicator. As a result, the activity accumulated a rise of 26.77% in the last 12 months, the most intense change and the second biggest influence (1.59 p.p. out of 9.69%) in this indicator among the activities surveyed.

Of the four products that mostly influenced the monthly change, two of them followed the sector and registered negative figures this month, being one from the group of non-ferrous metals ("aluminum oxide") and the other from the group of steel products ("carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates"). The other two products that stood out reported positive figures this month and followed the same logic, i.e., one from the group of non-ferrous metals ("aluminum plates and strips, of a thickness exceeding 0.2 mm") and the other from the group of steel products ("galvanized coils or plates"). Those four products that mostly influenced on the monthly indicator impacted the result of the activity by -0.53 p.p., thus remaining only -0.01 p.p. to the other 20 products.

The group of non-ferrous metals was the most influential one, both in the negative result this month and in the positive result of the longer-term indicator. Its changes are usually linked with the quotations in international markets and have been especially impacted by changes in the quotation of gold, copper and, mainly, aluminum. It should also remind the importance of the currency rate to explain the result of the sector: in January, the dollar depreciated 1.2% against the real, though the currency rate still accumulated a rise of 22.5% in the last 12 months.