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Inflation preview

IPCA-15 reaches 0.40% in December and closes 2023 up by 4.72%

Section: Economic Statistics | Vinícius Britto

December 28, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 29, 2023 10h23 PM

Air fares rise by 9.02% in December and close  2023 with an increase of 48.11% - Photo:IBGE Archive

The inflation preview stood at 0.40% in December, 0.07 percentage points (p.p.) above the figure in November, when the change amounted to 0.33%. The result was mainly driven by Transportation, which rose by 0.77% and had an impact of 0.16 p.p. on the general index, and by air fares, with an increase of 9.02%, accounting for the main individual impact in the month (0.09 p.p.). In 2023, this subitem had a cumulative increase of 48.11%. The Extended National Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15) was released today (28) by the IBGE.

In the year, the result of IPCA-15 was 4.72%. IPCA-E, which is cumulative IPCA-15 per quarter, stood at 0.94% for the period October-December. In December 2022, IPCA-15 recorded an increase of 0.52%, whereas regarding the cumulative index in the year 2022, inflation preview had hit 5.90%. 

Among the nine groups surveyed, seven recorded increases in December. The group Transportation accounted for the biggest change (0.77%) and for the main impact (0.16 p.p). The main contribution to this result came from airfares, which rose by 9.02% and accounted for the main individual impact on the monthly index (0.09).

Other highlights are the subitems: taxi, which rose by 0.83% due to the price adjustment of 6.67% in São Paulo (2.80%), since October 28; urban bus (1.91%), due to the price adjustment of 6.12% in Salvador (5.69%), in effect since November 13; and train, subway, urban bus and public transportation connection, with an increase of 6.67% in São Paulo, which had recorded a drop of 6.25% in November, as a result of the free fares granted to all the population on the days of ENEM (university entrance) tests.

As for fuels (-0.27%), prices of diesel (-0.75%), ethanol (-0.35%) and gasoline fell (-0.24%), whereas vehicles gas (0,08%) rose.

As for food and beverages, which recorded an increase of 0.54% and an impact of 0.12 p.p., food at home rose by 0.55% in December, due, to a great extent, to the rise in basic items of the basket of families, such as onion (10.63%), potato (10.32%), rice (5.46%) and meat (0.65%). On the other hand, prices of tomato (-7.95%) and long life milk (-1.91%) fell.

Food away from home (0.53%) accelerated in relation to November (0.22%). Both meals (0.46%) and snacks (0.50%) recorded changes above those in the previous month (022% and 0.35%, respectively).

In the group of Housing (0.48%), the prices of residential electricity (0.82%) increased due to adjustments in four areas of coverage: Goiânia (2.97%), adjustment of 5.91% since October 22; 6.79% in one of the concessionaires surveyed in São Paulo (1.66%), since October 23; Brasília (1.35%), of 9.65% since October 22; and Porto Alegre (0.59%), of -1.41% in one of the concessionaires surveyed, since November 22.

Also in Housing, the rise of water and sewage fares (1.43%) was influenced by the following adjustments in fares: 14.43% in Fortaleza (6.28%), since October 29th; 10.23% in Rio de Janeiro (10.23%), since November 8th and that had not been incorporated into the IPCA-15 of November; 15.76% in Belém (9.21%), since November 28th; and 4.97% in one of the concessionaires surveyed in Porto Alegre (1.15%), since December 01st.

Piped gas (0.47%) also rose due to average adjustment of 0.98% in Rio de Janeiro (0.54%) as of November 01st and of 3.30% in São Paulo (0.55%) as of December 10th.

The other groups recorded the following results: Personal expenses, with a change of 0.56% and an impact of 0.06 p.p.; Health and personal care, with a change of 0.14% and an impact of 0.02 p.p.; Education, with a change of 0.05% and an impact of 0.00 p.p.; Wearing apparel, with a change of 0.03% and an impact of 0.00 p.p.; Communication, with a change of -0.46% and an impact of -0.02 p.p.; and Household articles, with a change of -0.15% and an impact of -0.01 p.p.

Fortaleza and Goiânia record main advances, and Recife, the main decrease

As for the regional indexes, all the areas rose in December. The main changes were those in Fortaleza and Goiânia, both with 0.77%. In both cases, the main contribution for the increase came from gasoline, with changes of 6.48% and 2.33%, respectively. The lowest result was that of Recife (-0.26%), with the fall of gasoline prices (-4.66%).

More about the survey

To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to estimate the IPCA-15, the prices collected from November 15 to December 14 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from October 14 to November 14 (base).

The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. See the complete results at Sidra. The next release of IPCA-15, relative to January, will be on the 26th next month.

Keywords: IPCA-15 de dezembro é de 0, 40% e fecha 2023 com alta de 4, 72%

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