Inflation preview
With a rise in airfare, IPCA-15 is 0.21% in October
October 26, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 26, 2023 04h54 PM
Inflation preview stayed at 0.21% in October, 0.14 percentage points (pp) lower than that of September, when it had changed 0.35%. The result was highly influenced by the rise in the airfare prices, which rose 23.75% and exerted the biggest individual impact (0.16 pp) on the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (26) by the IBGE.
The cumulative IPCA-15 in the year was 3.96% and, in the last 12 months, 5.05%, above the rate of 5.00% registered in the 12 immediately previous months. The rate had been 0.16% in October 2022.
Among the groups surveyed, seven rose, with the highest change (0.78%) and the biggest impact (0.16 pp) registered by Transportation for the second month in a row. Besides airfare, the sub-item with the biggest impact, only ride sharing apps (5.64%) and car licensing (1.64%) rose. Taxi inflation (0.31%) was due to the adjustment of 20.00% in Porto Alegre (3.59%) since October 9.
On the other hand, the item fuels fell 0.44%, after the retreat in the prices of sub-items gasoline (-0.56%), ethanol (-0.27%) and vehicular gas (-0.27%). Only diesel fuel (1.55%) rose within this item.
The groups of Health and personal care (0.28%) and Housing (0.26%) increased their prices as well. Both of them contributed with 0.04 pp each to the October´s IPCA-15. In Housing, the rises in bottled gas (1.24%) and residential rent (0.29%) stand out. Water and sewage fees (0.27%) also rose, due to the adjustment of 6.75% in Salvador (4.42%) since September 25. In contrast, residential electricity dropped 0.07% in October.
In Health and personal care, the sub-item health insurance plans rose 0.77%. The items of personal hygiene also rose (0.05%), influenced by the rises in sub-items perfume (1.24%) and hair products (0.45%).
Among the two groups that dropped, the most relevant influence was of Food and beverages (-0.31% and -0.07 pp), which retreated for the fifth consecutive month in the IPCA-15. Having retreated 0.52%, the sub-group of food at home decelerated in relation to the previous month (-1.25%) and exerted an important impact on the group´s result. Among the sub-items, the drop in long-life milk (-6.44%) stands out, the major one in the October´s IPCA-15, as well as the retreat in the prices of carioca beans (-5.31%), hen eggs (-5.04%) and meat (-0.44%). On the other hand, the prices of rice (3.41%) and fruits (0.71%) increased this month.
In the analysis of the sub-group of food away from home, the survey recorded a rise of 0.21%, a deceleration in relation to September (0.46%). The rise in meals (0.22%) was also less intense than that in the previous month (0.35%). Snacks, which declined 0.11%, registered a drop in its prices after a rise in September (0.74%).
Goiânia records the highest rise and Fortaleza, the biggest retreat
Concerning the regional indexes, eight areas rose their prices in October. The highest change was recorded in Goiânia, with an increase of 0.63% due to the rise in airfare (30.33%) and gasoline (1.86%). The biggest drop occurred in Fortaleza, which retreated 0.28%. In the capital of Ceará, the result was influenced by the drop in the prices of gasoline (-9.32%).
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. The prices collected from September 15 to October 13 (reference) were compared with the ones in force from August 15 to September 14 (base). The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results on Sidra. The next release of the IPCA-15, related to November, will be on November 28.
