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Inflation preview

IPCA-15 reaches 0.28% in August, driven by the rise in electricity

Section: Economic Statistics | Vinícius Britto

August 25, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 28, 2023 10h50 PM

End of the Itaipu bonus led to the rise of residential electricity (4.59%) - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

The inflation preview stood at 0.28% in August, 0.35 percentage points (p.p.) above the rate of July (-0.07%). With a contribution of 0.16 p.p. to the result of the month, the main influnce came from Housing (1.08%), followed by Health and personal care (0.81%) and Education (0.71%), whi h accounted for impacts of 0.11 p.p. and 0.04 p.p. on the monthly index, respectively.

In the year, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (25) by the IBGE, reached a cumulative increase of 3.38% and, in 12 months, of 4.24%, above the 3.19% registered in the 12 previous months. In August 2022, the rate was -0.73%. 

The prices of seven of the nine groups of products and services rose in August. In the group Housing (1.08%), the decrease in residential electricity (4.59% and -0.18 p.p.), influenced by the end of the payment of Itaipu bonuses, charged in invoices issued in the previous month. Price rises were observed in three areas of coverage of the index: Curitiba (9.68%), with 10.66% starting on June 24th; Porto Alegre (5.44%), with 2.92% starting on June 19th, in one of the concessionnaires surveyed; and São Paulo (4.21%), with adjustments of -1.13% since July 4th, in one of the concessionnaires surveyed.

Also in Housing, the rise of water and sewage fees (0.20%) resulted from the price adjustment of 3.45% in one of the concessionnaires in Porto Alegre (0.93%), since July 01st, and of 5.02% in Brasília (2.20%), since August 01st. In turn, the drop in piped gas (-0.31%) results from tax reductions in two areas of coverage: in Rio de Janeiro (-0.65%), with an average drop of 1.70%, starting on August 1st; and in Curitiba (-0.77%), with a drop of 2.23%, since August 4th.

The acceleration of Health and personal care (0.81%) was due to the items personal hygiene, which changed from -0.71% in July to 1.59% in August. The prices of skincare products (8.57%) and of perfumes (2.94%) rose, after drops of 4.32% and 1.90% in July, respectively.

In Education (0.71%), regular courses rose 0.74% mainly due to the subitems day care (1.91%) and higher education (1.12%). The increase of other courses (0.06%) was influenced by preparatory courses (1.22%) and language courses (0.14%).

Other positive changes in the month came from the groups Personal expenses (0.60%), Transportation (0.23%), Communication (0.04%) and Household appliances (0.01%).

Drops in the groups Food and beverages were influenced by the deflation of food at home

The drop in Food and beverages (-0.65%) was mainly due to deflation in food at home (-0.99%), which had already decreased in the last two months. A highlight were the decreases in potatoes (-12.68%), tomato (-5.60%), chicken pieces (-3.66%), long life milk (-2.40%) and meats (-1.44%). As for increases, fruits (1.42%) rose.

Food away from home (0.22%) decelerated from the previous month (0.46%), as a result of the deceleration of snacks (from 1.02% in July to 0.14% in August). Meals (0.35%) accelerated against the result of July (0.17%).

Regional analysis shows that only Belo Horizonte recorded a negative change in August

As for the regional indexes, only one area recorded a negative change in August. The smallest change took place in Belo Horizonte (-0.18%), whose result was influenced by the drop in urban bus (-20.91%). The biggest change in Fortaleza (0.73%), due to the rise of gasoline (5.92%) and residential electricity (3.23%).

More about the survey

The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to estimateIPCA-15, the prices collected from July 13 to August 13 (reference) were compared with the ones in force from June 14 to July 12 (base). /p>

The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results at Sidra.

The next release of IPCA-15, relative to September, and of the IPCA-E (July, August and September) will be on September 26th.

Keywords: IPCA-15 fica em 0, 28% em agosto, influenciado pela alta da energia elétrica

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