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Inflation preview stands at 0.51% in May, driven by price rise of long life milk and medicines

Section: Economic Statistics | Vinícius Britto

May 25, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: May 25, 2023 11h48 PM

Price of long life milk rose by 6.03% and accounted for main positive influence in May - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

The inflation preview stood at 0.51% in May, 0.06 percentage points (p.p.) below the rate in April (0.57%). With a contribution of 0.20p.p. to the month's result, the main contributions came from Food and beverages, which accelerated from 0.04% to 0.94% from April to May, and Health and Personal Care (1.49%). In the year, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (25) by the IBGE, has a cumulative increase of 3.12% and, in 12 months, of 4.07%, below the 4.16% registered in the 12 previous months. In May 2022, the rate was 0.59%. 

Seven of the nine groups of products and services surveyed rose in May. The prices of Food and beverages accounted for 0.20 p.p. of the genral index and rose by 0.94%, driven by the rise in food at home (1.02%), with long life milk (6.03%) accounting for the main positive impact this month (0.05 p.p.), besides price rises of tomate (18.82%), potato (6.60%) and cheese (2.42%). From the perspective of decreases, the highlights were soybean (-4.13%) and fruit (-1.52%).

Food away from home changed from 0.55% in April to 0.73% in May. Snacks advanced from 0.82% in April to 1.08% in May, whereas meals (0.46%) registered a result below that a month ago (0.52%).

The group Health and personal care, with an increase of 1.49%, accounted for 0.20 p.p. Pharmaceuticals rose 2.68% after the authorized rise of up to 5.60% in the price of medicines, in effect since March 31st. The items of personal hygiene accelerated from 0.35% in April to 1.38% in May, mainly driven by perfumes (2.21%).

In the group Housing (0.43%), electricity stands out (0.51%.), due to price rises in three areas: Salvador (5.82%), with a rise of 8.28% starting on April 22; Fortaleza (2.20%), with price rise of 4.85% starting on April 22 and Recife (0.05%), with a rise of 8.33% starting on May 14th.

The rise of 1.24% in water and sewage rates results from price rises observed in three areas: 7.02% in Goiânia (7.02%), starting on April 1st, and that had not been added to the IPCA-15 of April; 11.20% in Recife (6.31%), starting on April 28; and 9.56% in São Paulo (1.79%), starting on May 10th.

The change in piped gas (0.83%) results from the residual appropriation of tax rise and from a change in the charging method in Curitiba (6.80%), since February 1st, and that had not been added to March’s IPCA. Also, there was reduction of the 0.59% in Rio de Janeiro (-0.27%), starting on May 1st.

Positive rates were also observed in Personal expenses (0.40%), Wearing apparel (0.35%), Education (0.07%) and Communication (0.02%).

Fall of airfare prices contributed to the result of Transportation

In Transportation (-0.04%), the negative change was driven by the decrease of 17.26% in prices of airfares, main negative contribution in May (0.12 p. p.), after an increase of 11.96% in April. In fuels (0.12%), diesel (-2.76%), vehicle gas (-0.44%) and gasoline (-0.21%) recorded fall in prices, whereas ethanol rose 3.62%.

Also regarding Transportation, subway fares (1.97%) rose by 6.15% in Rio de Janeiro (5.67%), starting on April 12. The rise of 2.71% in urban bus fares was due to price rises of 33.33% in Belo Horizonte (24.00%), starting on April 23, and of 15.75% in Fortaleza (1.38%), starting on March 19.

The group Household articles fell by 0.28% in May, after a drop of 0.07% in April. Prices of TV, sound and computer fell by 1.44%, due to television sets (-2.21%). Household appliances and equipment (-0.92%) were driven by refrigerator (-1.37%) and washing machine (-1.09%).

In terms of regional analysis, IPCA-15 recorded an increase in all the areas surveyed

Regarding regional indexes, all the areas surveyed recorded rises of prices in March. The highest decrease was registered in Belo Horizonte (0.90%). The main contribution to the overall result came from urban buses, with a rise of 24.00%. The lowest change was recorded by Recife (0.19%), due to decreases in 18.25% in airfares and of 3.46% in gasoline.

More about the survey

The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to estimate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from April 14 to May 15, 2023 (reference) and compared with those in effect from March 16 to April 13, 2023 (base).

The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results at Sidra.

The next edition of IPCA-15 and of IPCA-E (April, May, June) will be released on June 27th.

Keywords: Prévia da inflação fica em 0, 51% em maio, influenciada pela alta no leite longa vida e reajuste dos medicamentos

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