Agricultural production
June estimate expects record harvest of 247.4 million tonnes in 2020
July 08, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 08, 2020 01h30 PM
According to the June estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA, released today (8) by the IBGE, the national harvest of grains should hit a new record and reach 247.4 million tonnes in 2020. It corresponds to an increase of 0.6% in relation to the May forecast and of 2.5% compared with the 2019 harvest, a rise of 6 million tonnes.
Such growth in the annual comparison results mainly from the increase of 5.6% in the projection for soybeans (more 119.9 million tonnes) and of 0.4% for cotton (more 6.9 million tonnes), both of them a record in the time series. The production estimate for wheat is 33% higher (7 million tonnes) than last year.
Carlos Antônio Barradas, an IBGE analyst of Agriculture, also highlights the record projection for the production of coffea arabica, which should reach 2.6 million tonnes this year or 44.5 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 28.9% over the harvest last year, maintaining the Brazilian hegemony in the world production.
"The output of coffea arabica is due to the climate that benefited the crops in the center-south of Brazil. It rained quite a lot in Minas Gerais in the beginning of the year. Another factor is the biennial positive bearings, a physiologic characteristic of the plant in which it alternates years of high and low output," said the analyst, adding that the appreciated dollar and fair production should leverage the exports of the product, allowing the recovery of important international markets.
Barradas also mentions the production of corn, which should be 3.0% lower this year, with an output of 97.5 million tonnes. "Corn registered an outstanding performance last year, especially in the second crop. The harvest of soybeans was anticipated, which caused an increase in the planting window of corn. It did not happen this year, so the planting window of corn became more restricted", explained him.
In the monthly comparison, the change of 0.6% of the grain harvest is mainly due to the increase in the estimate of soybeans (547.3 thousand tonnes), corn -1st crop (160.8 thousand tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (647.7 thousand tonnes), sugarcane (11.9 million tonnes) and wheat (82.7 thousand tonnes).
"The Brazilian producer is always investing more in technology and in the expansion of the planting area. With all this economic turmoil, which rises the dollar, the producers plant because they know that their products, mainly soybeans and corn, are quoted in dollar, so their prices are always fair. It has been producing successive records in the harvest," commented Barradas.
Harvest should not rise in South only
In 2020, the IBGE forecasts a production growth in nearly all the Brazilian regions, highlighted by the Northeast (14.3%), Southeast (7.8%) and North (7.0%). In the Central-West, the largest producer in Brazil, the harvest should grow 3.8%, adding up to 115.8 million tonnes. On the other hand, the harvest should retreat 4.7% in the second largest producer, the South (73.6 million tonnes).
Among the states, Mato Grosso should remain leading the national production of grains, with a share of 28.4%, followed by Paraná (16.4%).
