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In 2015, GDP shrinks 3.8% and reaches R$ 5.9 trillion

March 03, 2016 12h18 PM | Last Updated: January 16, 2018 06h54 PM

 

INDICATORS

GDP

AGRICULT

INDUS

SERV

GFCF

FAM CONS

GOV CONS

Quarter on Previous Quarter(seasonally adjusted)

-1.4%

2.9%

-1.4%

-1.4%

-4.9%

-1.3%

-2.9%

Quarter on Same Quarter a Year Ago (unadjusted)

-5.9%

0.6%

-8.0%

-4.4%

-18.5%

-6.8%

-2.9%

Cum in 4 Qs / 4 Previous Qs (unadjusted)

-3.8%

1.8%

-6.2%

-2.7%

-14.1%

-4.0%

-1.0%

Cum in the year / Same Period a Year Ago (unadjusted)

1,531.6 billion

49.2 billion

295.2 billion

969.2 billion

256.8 billion

976.8 billion

342.8 billion

Current Values in the quarter (R$)

5,904.3 billion

263.6 billion

1,149.4 billion

3,642.3 billion

1,072.5 billion

3,741.9 billion

1,192.4 billion

PER CAPITA GDP = R$ 28,876 (-4.6% in volume in relation to 2014)
INVESTMENT RATE (GFCF/GDP) in 2015 = 18.2%
SAVINGS RATE (SAV/GDP) in 2015 = 14.4%

Compared to the third quarter, the GDP of the fourth quarter of 2015 fell 1.4%, in the seasonally adjusted series. It is the fourth consecutive fall in this comparison base. Industry (-1.4%) and services (-1.4%) went down, while agricultural was up (2.9%). In the comparison with the fourth quarter of 2014, the GDP fell 5.9% - the sharpest drop in the time series started in 1996. The value added at basic prices fell 5.0%, and taxes on products shrank 11.0%. Agriculture grew 0.6%, whereas industry (-8.0%) and services (-4.4%) recorded drops.

In 2015, the GDP decreased 3.8% in relation to 2014 - the greatest drop in the time series started in 1996. The drop in the GDP was caused by the decrease of 3.3% in the value added at basic prices and the drop of 7.3% in taxes on products. In this comparison, agriculture (1.8%) recorded expansion, and industry (-6.2%) and services (-2.7%) fell. In 2015, the GDP added up to R$ 5.9 trillion (current values). The GDP per capita stayed at R$ 28,876 in 2015, with decrease of 4,6%, in volume, in relation to the previous year.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

TABLE I.1 - Main GDP results from Q4 2014 to Q4 2015

Rates (%)

2014.IV

2015.I

2015.II

2015.III

2015.IV

Cumulative over the year/ same period a year ago
< Annex: Table 3 >

0.1

-2.0

-2.5

-3.2

-3.8

Last four quarters/ previous four quarters< Annex: Table 4 >

0.1

-1.2

-1.7

-2.5

-3.8

Quarter / same quarter a year ago 
< Annex: Table 2 >

-0.7

-2.0

-3.0

-4.5

-5.9

Quarter / previous quarter (seasonally adjusted)
< Annex: Table 7 >

0.1

-0.8

-2.1

-1.7

-1.4

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais

In relation to Q3 2015, GDP shrinks 1.4%

In the comparison with the 3rd quarter of the year (seasonally adjusted series), Industry (-1.4%) and Services (-1.4%) went down, while Agriculture was up (2.9%).

Among the subsectors under industry, the sharpest fall was in mining and quarrying industries (-6.6%). The manufacturing industry (-2.5%) recorded a negative result for the fifth quarter in a row. Conversely, the activity electricity, water supply, gas, sewerage and urban sanitation (1.7%) and construction (0.4%) registered positive changes.

In services, just real estate activities (0.5%) registered a positive result in the quarter. The other activities contracted: trade (-2.6%), public administration, health and education (-2.0%), transportation, storage and mailing (-1.7%), other services (-1.2%), information services (-0.9%) and financial intermediation and insurance (-0.2%).

From the expense perspective, the gross fixed capital formation recorded the 7th quarter of decrease in a row (-4.9%) and household consumption expenditure (-1.3%) fell for the fourth quarter in a row. Government expenditure shrank 2.9%. In the foreign sector, exports of goods and services had a negative change of 0.4%, whereas imports of goods and services went back 5.9% in relation to the third quarter of 2015.

GDP down 5.9% in relation to Q4 2014

In the comparison with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP fell 5.9% in the 4th quarter of 2015, the sharpest fall since the beginning of the time series started in 1996. Among the economic activities, agriculture grew 0.6% and industry recorded decrease of 8.0%. In this context, the manufacturing industry recorded a contraction of 12.0%.

Construction and mineral extraction also had decrease in the volume of the value added: -5.2% and -4.1%, respectively. Conversely, the activity electricity and water supply, gas, sewerage and urban sanitation registered expansion of 1.4%.

The value added of services fell 4.4% in the comparison with the same period of the previous year, with a highlight to the contraction of 12.4% in trade (wholesale and retail) and of 9.0% in transportation, storage and mailing. The other negative results were seen in the activities of other services (-4.4%), information services (-3.0%), public administration, health and education (-1.2%) and financial intermediation and insurance (-0.4%). Real estate activities presented no change.

All components of the domestic demand registered negative changes in the comparison with the fourth quarter of 2015 against the same period a year ago. The gross fixed capital formation decreased 18.5%, household consumption expenditure fell 6.8% and government consumption expenditure went down 2.9%. In the foreign sector, exports of goods and services grew 12.6%, whereas imports of goods and services fell 20.1%.

In 2015, GDP down 3.8% and GDP per capita shrinks 4.6%

In 2015, GDP decreased 3.8% in relation to the previous year, the greatest drop in the time series started in 1996. In 2014, the GDP had been practically stable (+0.1%). Due to the decrease, the GDP per capita reached R$ 28,876 (in current values) in 2015, dropping (in real terms) 4.6% in relation to the previous year. In 2014, the GDP shrank 0.8%.

The drop in the GDP was caused by the decrease of 3.3% of the value added at basic prices and by the drop of 7.3% in net taxes on products. The result of the value added in this kind of comparison influenced the performance of the three activities which comprise it: Agriculture (1.8%), Industry (-6.2%) and Services (-2.7%). The decrease of taxes demonstrates, mainly, the reduction, in volume, of 17.1% of the Import Tax and of 13.9% of the IPI - mostly due to the negative performance of the manufacturing industry and the imports of services and goods per year.

The volume change of the value added of Agriculture (1.8%) derives particularly from the performance of farming activities. Some crop products recorded output growth: the highlights were soybeans (11.9%) and corn (7.3%). On the other hand, some crops registered negative changes, such as wheat (-13.4%), coffee (-5.7%) and orange (-3.9%).

In industry, the positive highlight was the performance of mineral extraction, which accumulated a growth of 4.9% in the year, influenced both by the increase in petroleum and natural gas extraction and by the growth of ferrous mineral extraction. The other industrial activities recorded volume drops in value added. Construction contracted 7.6%, whereas the activity of electricity water supply, gas, sewerage and urban sanitation fell 1,4%.

The manufacturing industry had drops (-9.7%), influenced by the reduction, in volume, of the value added of the car industry (including parts and accessories) and the manufacturing of machinery and equipment, electric-electronic devices and computer equipment, food and beverages, textiles and wearing apparel and fabricated metal products.

Among the activities that comprise services, trade had a fall of 8.9%, followed by transportation, storage and mailing, which decreased 6.5%, other services (-2.8%) and information services (-0.3%). The activity of public administration, health and education was stable (0.0%), whereas financial intermediation and insurance and real estate activities presented positive changes of, respectively, 0.2% and 0.3%.

In the expenditure approach, the highlight was the contraction of 14.1% of gross fixed capital formation. This drop is the result of basically the drop of the domestic demand and the import of capital goods, also influenced by the negative behavior of construction in this period. In 2014, the gross fixed capital formation had already presented a 4.5% drop.

Household consumption expenditure fell 4.0% in relation to the previous year (when it had grown 1.3%), which could be explained by the deterioration of the indicators of inflation, credit, employment and income along the whole year of 2015. Government expenditure decreased 1.0% - also decelerating in relation to 2014, when it had grown 1.2%.

In the foreign sector, exports of goods and services grew 6.1%, whereas imports of goods and services fell 14.3%. Among the products and services for exportation, the highest increases were seen in petroleum, soybeans, steel products and iron ores. Conversely, among exports, the biggest drops were seen in machinery and equipment, cars, petroleum and petroleum products, as well as transportation services and trips.

The investment rate in 2015 was of 18.2% of the GDP, below the previous year result (20.2%). Savings rate was of 14.4% in 2015 (against 16.2% in the previous year).

The drop in the GDP was caused by the decrease of 3.3% of the value added at basic prices and by the drop of 7.3% in net taxes on products. The result of the value added in this kind of comparison influenced the performance of the three activities which comprise it: Agriculture (1.8%), Industry (-6.2%) and Services (-2.7%). The decrease of taxes demonstrates, mainly, the reduction, in volume, of 17.1% of the Import Tax and of 13.9% of the IPI - mostly due to the negative performance of the manufacturing industry and the imports of services and goods per year.

The volume change of the value added of Agriculture (1.8%) derives particularly from the performance of farming activities. Some crop products recorded output growth: the highlights were soybeans (11.9%) and corn (7.3%). On the other hand, some crops registered negative changes, such as wheat (-13.4%), coffee (-5.7%) and orange (-3.9%).

In industry, the positive highlight was the performance of mineral extraction, which accumulated a growth of 4.9% in the year, influenced both by the increase in petroleum and natural gas extraction and by the growth of ferrous mineral extraction. The other industrial activities recorded volume drops in value added. Construction contracted 7.6%, whereas the activity of electricity water supply, gas, sewerage and urban sanitation fell 1,4%.

The manufacturing industry had drops (-9.7%), influenced by the reduction, in volume, of the value added of the car industry (including parts and accessories) and the manufacturing of machinery and equipment, electric-electronic devices and computer equipment, food and beverages, textiles and wearing apparel and fabricated metal products.

Among the activities that comprise services, trade had a fall of 8.9%, followed by transportation, storage and mailing, which decreased 6.5%, other services (-2.8%) and information services (-0.3%). The activity of public administration, health and education was stable (0.0%), whereas financial intermediation and insurance and real estate activities presented positive changes of, respectively, 0.2% and 0.3%.

In the expenditure approach, the highlight was the contraction of 14.1% of gross fixed capital formation. This drop is the result of basically the drop of the domestic demand and the import of capital goods, also influenced by the negative behavior of construction in this period. In 2014, the gross fixed capital formation had already presented a 4.5% drop.

Household consumption expenditure fell 4.0% in relation to the previous year (when it had grown 1.3%), which could be explained by the deterioration of the indicators of inflation, credit, employment and income along the whole year of 2015. Government expenditure decreased 1.0% - also decelerating in relation to 2014, when it had grown 1.2%.

In the foreign sector, exports of goods and services grew 6.1%, whereas imports of goods and services fell 14.3%. Among the products and services for exportation, the highest increases were seen in petroleum, soybeans, steel products and iron ores. Conversely, among exports, the biggest drops were seen in machinery and equipment, cars, petroleum and petroleum products, as well as transportation services and trips.

The investment rate in 2015 was of 18.2% of the GDP, below the previous year result (20.2%). Savings rate was of 14.4% in 2015 (against 16.2% in the previous year).

 

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3 March 2016