The inflation preview in February rose 0.76%, after registering 0.55% in January. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (24) by the IBGE shows that the main change and impact on the index came from Education, with 6.41% and 0.36 p.p. respectively. In the last 12 months, the IPCA-15 changed 5.63%, below the rate of 5.87% recorded in the immediately previous 12 months. In February 2022, the IPCA-15 was 0.99%.

Except for Wearing apparel, whose prices fell 0.05%, after an increase of 0.42% in January, eight of the nine groups of products and services surveyed recorded increases in February. Education stood out, and accounted for the biggest change and main impact on the index. Housing (0.63% and 0.10 p.p.), with acceleration from the previous month (0.17%), and Food and beverages (0.39% and 0,08 p.p.) followed. The other groups ranged between 0.08% in Transportation and 0.078% in Communication.

The main contribution to Educação (6.41%) came from regular courses (7.64%), due to price adjustments usually effected in the start of the school year. The greatest changes came from primary education (8.03%), preschool education (7.55%), secondary education (7.46%), daycare (6.47%) and higher education (5.90%) Higher education (5.33%), technical courses (4.50%) and post-graduate courses (3.47%) also recorded increases.

Housing (0.63%) accelerated in relation to the previous month (0.17%), influenced by hikes in residential rent (0.89%) and condominium fees (0.62%). Water and sewage rate (1.32%) also recorded rise in February, as a conequence of price adjustments in Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Fortaleza and Salvador.

In addition to that, it is worth mentioning the result of the subitem piped gas (1.50%), as a result of the rise of 4.22% in Rio de Janeiro, where the rise of 9.00% was registered on January 1st, and afterwards, a decrease of 2.86% starting on February 1st, and 4.60% in Curitiba, which recorded an increase of 13.34% as a result of the price adjustment in fares and the change in the form of chanrge, from February 1st on. In São Paulo (-0.71%), the decrease of 0.71% from January 1st on had not been incorporated into IPCA-15 in January and was fully integrated into the IPCA-15 of February.

Also in Housing, electricity rose 0.35%, after a decrease of 0.16% in the previous months. The results by area ranged between -3.44% in Brasília and 5.99% in Salvador, where the ICMS tax went back to the level of 27% on January 1st.

The change in Food and beverages (0.39%) stood below that registered in January (0.55%). The prices of food at home rose 0.38%, influenced by rises in carrots (24.25%), green vegetables (8.71%), long life milk (3.63%), rice (2.75%) and fruit (2.33%). In terms of decreases, the fall of prices of onions (-19.11%), tomato (-4.56%), chicken pieces (-1.98%) and meat (-0.87%) stood out. Food away from home (0.40%) stood close to that result in the previous month (0.39%). Snacks rose 0.78% and meals, 0.16%.

Transportation decelerated from January (0.17%) to February (0.08%). The main reason was the decrease of 9.45% in prices of airfares. All fuels (-0.28%) recorded fall of prices in February: ethanol (-1.65%), vehicle gas (-1.59%), diesel (-0.59%) and gasoline (-0.04%). The rise in the sub-item car licensing (1.62%), which incorporated the monhtly share relative to the IPVA (vehicle tax) of 2023 also stood out.

Also in the case of Transportation, the rise of 0.99% in urban buses resulted from the increase of 6.17% in fares in Rio de Janeiro (4.88%), in effect since January 7th. The rise of 1.34% in the subitem train fares also reflects price adjustment observed in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (3.40%): the fares for the population in general were revised by 48% from February 9 on. It is worth mentioning the change of 2.11% in taxis, as a result of price adjustments of 16.74% in Salvador (8.28%), in effect since December 30, and of 8.88% in Rio de Janeiro (5.15%), since January 1st.

In the group of Communication (0.78%), the result was influenced by the rises in subscription TV (2.50%), telephone, Internet and subscription TV combo (1.35%), Internet access (0.66%).

Regarding regional indexes, all the areas surveyed recorded rises of prices in February. The highest change was reported in Salvador (1.19%), due to the rises in regular courses (7.84%), electricity (5.99%) and gasoline (5.16%). The lowest result was regiatered in Goiânia (0.41%), with contributions of gasoline (3.07%) and electricity (2.49%).

More about the survey

IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA, the official inflation in Brazil, only in the period of data collection and geographic coverage. In order to measure the IPCA-15, prices collected from December 14, 2022 to January 12, 2023 (reference) were compared with the ones in effect from November 15 to December 13, 2022 (base).

The target population of the IPCA-15 encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in the following metropolitan areas: Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results at  Sidra.