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IBGE previews crops of 278 million metric tons for 2022, with a 10.0% against 2021

December 09, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 17, 2021 12h03 PM

The second forecast of the national production of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2022 estimates a record harvest of 278 million metric tons, with an increase of 10.0% (or 25.2 million more metric tons) compared to 2021.

November estimate for 2021 252.8 million metric tons
2021 / 2020 crop change -0.5% (-1.4 million metric tons)
2021 crop / 10th estimate for 2021 change 0.6% (1.6 million metric tons)
November estimate for 2022 278 million metric tons
2022 2nd prognosis/ 2021 crop change 10.0% (25.2 million metric tons)
2022 2nd prognosis/ 2022 1st prognosis change 2.7% (7.3 million metric tons)

November's estimate for the 2021 crops reached 252.8 million metric tons, 0.5% lower than that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million metric tons). The area to be harvested was 68.4 million hectares, an increase of 3.0 million hectares (4.6%) compared to the harvested area in 2020. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together represent 92.6% of the estimated production and account for 87.5% of the area to be harvested.

Compared to 2020, there were increases of 5.7% in the area of corn (increases of 1.5% in corn 1st crop and 7.3% in corn 2nd crop); of 0.3% in the rice area, 15.5% in the area of wheat and 4.9% in the area of soybeans, and a drop of 16.0% in the cotton area.

As for production, there were increases of 10.5% for soybeans, 4.9% for paddy rice, 26.0% for wheat, and decreases of 17.6% for upland cotton (seed) and 14.6% for corn (-3.6% for corn 1st crop and -18.5% for corn 2nd crop).

In November 2021, the IBGE carried out the second forecast of area and production for the 2022 crop. The Brazilian grain, cereal and legume crop in 2022 should total 278 million metric tons, 10% growth compared to 2020, or 25 .2 million metric tons.

This increase is mainly due to expected increases in soybean production (3.4% or 4,512,381 metric tons), corn 1st crop (13.9% or 3 557 979 metric tons), corn 2nd crop (28.4% or 17 752 446 metric tons), upland cotton seed (4.3% or 253 505 metric tons), sorghum (12.2% or 291 089 metric tons), beans 1st crop (10.7% or 124 510 metric tons) and beans 2nd crop (4.0% or 40,773 metric tons). Declines are expected in the production of rice (-4.2% or 490 170 metric tons), beans 3rd crop (-0.9% or 5 210 metric tons) and wheat (-8.5% or 666 004 metric tons).

In relation to the forecasted area, soybeans in grain (2.7%), corn 1st crop in grain (3.3%), corn 2nd crop in grain (4.2%), upland cotton seed (3.1%), beans 1st crop (0.4%) and beans 3rd crop (1.3%), and negative changes for paddy rice (-0.4%), sorghum (- 0.4%) and wheat (-2.0%).

This 2nd estimate for the crop to be harvested in 2022 is subject to correction in the next survey (3rd Prognosis), as well as during the monitoring of the crop that will be carried out throughout 2022.

Crops in 2021 should reach 252.8 million metric tons, down 0.5%

The November estimate for the 2021 crop reached 252.8 million metric tons, 0.5% lower than the 2020 crop (254.1 million metric tons), a decline of 1.4 million metric tons. For soybeans, the production estimate was 134.3 million metric tons. For corn, the estimate was 88.1 million metric tons (25.6 million metric tons of corn 1st crop and 62.5 million metric tons of corn 2nd crop). The estimate for rice was 11.6 million metric tons; wheat, 7.8 million metric tons, and cotton (seed), 5.8 million metric tons.


Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Agropecuária, Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola-nov/2020.

Compared to the previous month, there were increases in production estimates for potatoes 2nd crop (4.0% or 48 024 mt), corn 2nd crop (2.6% or 1 588 272 mt), oats (2.4% or 23,987 mt), sorghum (1.3% or 31,821 mt), beans 3rd crop (0.3% or 1 523 mt), soybeans (0.1% or 167 861 mt), potato 1st crop (0.1% or 2 179 mt) and wheat (0.0% or 655 mt).

On the other hand, there were declines in barley (-2.2% or 9 760 mt), beans 2nd crop (-1.3% or 13 007 mt), potatoes 3rd crop (-1.0% or 8 888 mt), corn 1st crop (-0.8% or 215 755 mt) and beans 1st crop (-0.6% or 7,408 mt).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national producer of grains, with a participation of 28.3%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (14.9%), Paraná (13.1%), Goiás (10.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.5%) and Minas Gerais (6.0%), which together accounted for 79.8% of the national total. Regarding the participation of Brazilian Major Regions, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (46.1%), South (30.4%), Southeast (9.9%), Northeast (9.1%) and North (4.5%).

The positive changes in production estimates, compared to the previous month, were in Goiás (2 122 006 mt), Rondônia (64 688 mt), Bahia (35,000 mt), Pará (13 907 mt), Piauí (12 083 mt), Maranhão (578 mt), Espírito Santo (402 mt) and Rio Grande do Norte (333 mt). The falls occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul (-314 437 mt), Santa Catarina (-112 969 mt), Mato Grosso (-92 511 mt), Paraná (-51 500 mt), Minas Gerais (-49 780 mt), Paraíba (-17 833 mt), Sergipe (-4 198 mt), Ceará (-572 mt) and Rio de Janeiro (-150 mt).