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In March, industry shrinks in all the 15 areas surveyed

May 14, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: May 15, 2020 02h20 PM

With a decrease of 9.1% from February to March, national industry shrank in all the 15 areas surveyed by the IBGE, for the first time in the time series of the Monthly Survey of Industry initiated in 2012.
Part of the month of March was affected by the isolation measures against Covid-19 in the country. 
The most significant decreases were those of Ceará (-21.8%), in Rio Grande do Sul (-20.1%) and in Santa Catarina (-17.9%).

Short-Term IndIcators of Industry - results by areas
March 2020
Locais  Change (%)
March 2020/February 2020* March 2020/March 2019 Cumulative January-March Cumulative in the Last 12 Months
Amazonas -11.0 -5.7 -1.2 5.2
Pará -12.8 -2.4 -0.8 -1.3
Northeast Region -9,3 -1.0 4.3 -1.0
Ceará -21.8 -10.5 -1.4 1.3
Pernambuco -7.2 1.4 5.6 -0.2
Bahia -5.0 5.8 7.1 -0.4
Minas Gerais -1.2 -4.2 -8.4 -7.1
Espírito Santo -6.2 -14.2 -13.3 -17.2
Rio de Janeiro -1.3 9.4 9.8 4.8
São Paulo -5.4 -4.2 -2.3 0.2
Paraná -4.9 1.6 2.6 4.5
Santa Catarina -17.9 -15.6 -5.1 0.3
Rio Grande do Sul -20.1 -13.7 -4.7 0.0
Mato Grosso -4.1 -2.2 -1.8 -2.9
Goiás -2.8 -1.2 -1.2 2.2
Brazil -9.1 -3.8 -1.7 -1.0
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria * Série com Ajuste Sazonal

The decrease of industrial activity by 9.1% from February to March 2020, in the seasonally adjusted series, had a widespread profile, having reached all the 15 areas surveyed. The result reflects, mainly, the effects of the social isolation measures imposed by states and municipalities starting in the middle of March due to the Covid-19 pandemic; that affected the production process in many industrial plants in the country.

Since the beginning of the time series with 15 areas, that is the first decrease recorded in all of them. The latest widespread occurrence had taken place in May 2018, during the truck drivers' strike, with negative rates in 14 areas, except for Pará. The series adopted a total 15 areas in 2012, when the state of Mato Grosso was included in the survey. The series with 14 areas started in 2002, and the latest profile of general negative indexes was observed in November 2008. 

In March 2020, Ceará (-21.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (-20.1%) and Santa Catarina (-17.9%) recorded the most significant decreases, with all of them eliminating the increases recorded in the first two months of 2020: 2.4%, 6.9% and 1.9%, respectively. Pará (-12.8%), Amazonas (-11.0%) and Northeast Region (-9.3%) also recorded more significant decreases in relation to the national average (-9.1%). Pernambuco (-7.2%), Espírito Santo (-6.2%), São Paulo (-5.4%), Bahia (-5.0%), Paraná (-4.9%), Mato Grosso (-4.1%), Goiás (-2.8%), Rio de Janeiro (-1.3%) and Minas Gerais (-1.2%) had rates below the national average.

The quarterly moving average index of industry fell 2.4% in the quarter ended March 2020 against the level in the previous month. Negative rates were registered in nine of the 15 areas surveyed, the main results being those of Ceará (-6.5%), Santa Catarina (-5.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (-4.7%), Amazonas (-4.3%) and Pará (-4.1%).

On the other hand, Mato Grosso (1.7%), Pernambuco (1.0%), Bahia (0.9%) and Espírito Santo (0.8%) reached positive results in the quarter ended March.

In comparison with March 2019, national industry fell 3.8% in March 2020, with  negative results in 11 of the 15 areas surveyed, despite the positive calendar-effect, since March 2020 had three business days more (a total 22) than March 2019. Santa Catarina (-15.6%), Espírito Santo (-14.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-13.7%) and Ceará
(-10.5%) recorded the biggest decreases, mainly due to the results recorded by the sectors of wearing apparel and accessories, basic metals, machinery and equipment, among others.

Amazonas (-5.7%), Minas Gerais (-4.2%) and São Paulo (-4.2%) also registered more significant decreases compared with the average of industry (-3.8%). Pará (-2.4%), Mato Grosso (-2.2%), Goiás (-1.2%) and Northeast Region (-1.0%) complete the group of areas with negative indexes in the month.

On the other hand, Rio de Janeiro (9.4%) and Bahia (5.8%) accounted for the main advances in March 2020, greatly influenced by the performance of mining and quarrying activities, in the former; and coke, petroleum products and biofuels, in the latter. Paraná (1.6%) and Pernambuco (1.4%) also recorded positive rates.

In terms of the cumulative index in the year, against the same period a year ago, the decrease observed in the national output hit ten of the 15 areas surveyed, the main ones being Espírito Santo (-13.3%) and Minas Gerais (-8.4%), affected, to a great extent, by the decreases of mining and quarrying industry and basic metals. Santa Catarina (-5.1%), Rio Grande de Sul (-4.7%), São Paulo (-2.3%) and Mato Grosso
(-1.8%) also registered more negative rates versus the national average (-1.7%). Ceará (-1.4%), Goiás (-1.2%), Amazonas (-1.2%) and Pará (-0.8%) complete the group of areas with decrease of output.

The biggest advances in the cumulative index in the year were those of Rio de Janeiro (9.8%) and Bahia (7.1%), mainly due to the positive behavior of the activities mining and quarrying industry and coke, petroleum products and biofuels, in the former; and of coke, petroleum products and biofuels, besides pulp, paper and paper products, in the latter. Pernambuco (5.6%), Northeast Region (4.3%) and Paraná (2.6%) also recorded positive rates in the period.

On a quarterly basis, the industrial sector, having decreased 1.7% in Q1 2020, intensified the decrease observed in Q4 2019 (-0.5%) and has remained negative since the last quarter of 2018 (-1.3%), against the same period in the previous year. Eight of the fifteen areas surveyed recorded deceleration, mainly Amazonas (from 9.3% to -1.2%), Goiás (from 6.5% to -1.2%), Santa Catarina (from -1.2% to -5.1%), Ceará (from 1.8% to -1.4%) and São Paulo (from 0.6% to -2.3%), whereas Espírito Santo (from -23.8% to -13.3%), Bahia (from -2.4% to 7.1%), Pernambuco (from -0.2% to 5.6%) and Northeast Regions (from 0.7% to 4.3%) registered the main gains between the two periods.

Areas Percent change (%)
Q1/2019 Q2/2019 Q3/2019 Q4/2019 Jan-Mar/2020
Amazonas -5.0 3.8 9.2 9.3 -1.2
Pará -0.6 -8.0 4.5 -1.7 -0.8
Northeast Region -4.1 -1.0 -7.3 0.7 4.3
Ceará -0.4 4.8 0.3 1.8 -1.4
Pernambuco -2.8 3.8 -8.4 -0.2 5.6
Bahia -3.5 0.4 -5.6 -2.4 7.1
Minas Gerais -1.7 -6.8 -5.0 -8.6 -8.4
Espírito Santo -7.6 -16.1 -14.9 23.8 -13.3
Rio de Janeiro -1.0 -3.1 5.1 7.7 9.8
São Paulo -2.3 1.4 0.7 0.6 -2.3
Paraná 8.1 7.6 4.7 3.0 2.6
Santa Catarina 2.9 6.8 0.8 -1.2 -5.1
Rio Grande do Sul 6.4 9.2 -1.4 -3.0 -4.7
Mato Grosso -4,5 -3,7 -4,3 -1,3 -1,8
Goiás 2.4 2.3 1.0 6.5 -1.2
Brasil -2.1 -0.7 -1.2 -0.5 -1.7
Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria *Base: Igual período do ano anterior

The cumulative index in the last twelve months decreased 1.0% in March 2020, keeping its trend to decrease, but indicating slight deceleration of decrease against the result of last February (-1.2%).

In regional terms, seven of the 15 areas surveyed recorded negative rates, but nine of them had greater dynamism against the indexes of last February. Bahia (-1,4% to -0.4%), Rio de Janeiro (from 4.0% to 4.8%), Mato Grosso (from -3.6% to -2.9%), Pará (from -2.1% to -1.3%), Amazonas (from 4.6% to 5.2%), Pernambuco (from -0.7% to -0.2%) and the Northeast Region (from -1.5% to -1.0%) recorded the main increases between February and March 2020, whereas Santa Catarina (from 1.9% to 0.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from 1.5% to 0.0%) recorded the biggest decreases between the two periods.