IPCA-15 up 1.11% in June and IPCA-E reaches 1.46%
June 21, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 25, 2018 04h11 PM
The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) changed by 1.11% in June, showing strong acceleration (0.97 percentage points pp) in relation to May (0.14%). The rate of 1.11% in June is the same as that of June 1996 and was the largest change for a month of June since 1995 (2.25%). The IPCA-E, which is the cumulative IPCA-15 by quarters, stood at 1.46%, above the rate of 0.61% registered in the same period of 2017. As a result, the cumulative index for the year stands at 2.35%, above the 1.62% in 2017. The cumulative index in the last 12 months was 3.68%, above the 2.70% in the previous 12 months. In June 2017, the rate was 0.16%.
| Period | Rate |
|---|---|
| June 2018 | 1.11% |
| May 2018 | 0.14% |
| June 2017 | 0.16% |
| Cumulative in the year | 2.35% |
| Cumulative in 2 months | 3.68% |
Corresponding to about 60% of household expenditures, the group Food and beverages (1.57%), Housing (1.74%) and Transportation (1.95%) were the main responsible for the acceleration of the index in June. Together, the three groups contributed with 1.01 pp of impact to the IPCA-15, equivalent to 91% of the index for the month, according to the following table.
| Group | Monthly Change (%) | Impact (pp) | Cumulative Change (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | May | June | June | Quarter | 12 months | |
| General Index | 0.21 | 0.14 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.46 | 3.68 |
| Food and Beverages | 0.15 | -0.05 | 1.57 | 0.38 | 1.67 | -0.08 |
| Housing | 0.26 | 0.45 | 1.74 | 0.27 | 2.46 | 5.70 |
| Household Articles | 0.13 | -0.11 | 0.38 | 0.01 | 0.40 | -0.32 |
| Wearing Apparel | 0.43 | 0.52 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 1.69 |
| Transportation | 0.12 | -0.35 | 1.95 | 0.36 | 1.72 | 8.00 |
| Health and Personal Care | 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.55 | 0.07 | 2.01 | 5.74 |
| Personal Expenses | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 3.44 |
| Education | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 5.15 |
| Communication | -0.15 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.07 |
The group Food, which registered a fall of 0.05% in May, rose 1.57% in June, driven mainly by food at home, which, after a rise of 0.09% in May, accelerated in June, reaching 2.31%, with a highlight to: potatoes (45.12%), onions (19.95%), tomatoes (14.15%), long-life milk (5.59%), meat (2.35%) and fruits (2.03%). Food away from home (0.29%) also showed an acceleration in the price level compared to the 0.28% drop recorded in May.
In the group Housing (1.74%), the highlight was the item electricity, which increased 5.44%, representing the second largest individual impact in the June index. In addition to red flag tariff - level 2, in effect as of June 1st, adding R$0.05 to each kwh consumed, the following areas were subject to tariff increase:
- Belo Horizonte (11,14%) - increase of 18.53% as of May 28
- Recife (8,18%) - increase of 8.47% as of April 29
- Salvador (8,77%) - increase of 16.95% as of April 22
- Fortaleza (4,18%) - increase of 3.80% as of April 22
- Porto Alegre (3,70%) – increase of 9.85% as of April 19
The item piped gas (1.70%) reflected the 1.87% increase in Rio de Janeiro (0.99%), in force since May 1, and the 3.35% rise in São Paulo (3.07% %), as of May 31. The prices of the bottled gas also accelerated, becoming, on average, 2.60% more expensive.
Also in the Housing group, the increase in water and sewage service (0.77%) was a consequence of the 5.12% increase in the fares in Curitiba (4.90%), as of May 17, 2.78 % in Recife (2.44%), in effect since May 12, 3.50% in São Paulo (0.60%) since June 9th and 4.09% in Salvador (0.27%), as of June 12.
In Transportation (1.95%), the group of fuels, which had fallen 0.17% in May rose 5.94% in June. The highlight was gasoline (from 0.81% in May to 6.98% in June), which accounted for the highest individual impact on the index (0.31 pp), which represents 28% of the June IPCA-15. Ethanol accelerated in June (2.36%), after deflation (-5.17%) in May. Diesel fuel rose 3.06% after a high of 3.95% in May. The decrease in the item airfares (-2.12%) was less intense that of May (-14.94%).
In all the eleven localities surveyed in the IPCA-15 there was price acceleration in the month, with only the Metropolitan Areas of Belém (0.76%) and Recife (0.95%) registering indices below 1.00%, as shown the following table. The Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte had the highest result (1.37%), influenced by gasoline (6.77%) and electricity (11.14%), due to the 18.53% tariff increases in effect since May 28.
| Area | Regional Weight (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Cumulative Rate (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | May | June | Quarter | 12 Months | ||
| Belo Horizonte | 11.23 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 1.37 | 1.69 | 3.77 |
| Goiânia | 4.44 | -0.10 | -0.04 | 1.36 | 1.22 | 4.47 |
| Porto Alegre | 8.40 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 1.24 | 2.12 | 4.13 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 12.46 | 0.43 | -0.03 | 1.23 | 1.63 | 3.46 |
| Brasília | 3.46 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 1.15 | 1.57 | 3.76 |
| Salvador | 7.35 | 0.09 | 0.77 | 1.07 | 1.94 | 3.46 |
| Fortaleza | 3.49 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 1.06 | 1.48 | 2.73 |
| Curitiba | 7.79 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1.04 | 1.42 | 3.77 |
| São Paulo | 31.68 | 0.28 | -0.19 | 1.02 | 1.11 | 4.00 |
| Recife | 5.05 | -0.07 | 0.73 | 0.95 | 1.62 | 2.71 |
| Belém | 4.65 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 2.08 |
| Brazil | 100.00 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 1.11 | 1.46 | 3.68 |
For the IPCA-15 calculation, prices were collected between May 16 and June 13, 2018 and compared to those of April 14 to May 15, 2018. The indicator refers to households with income from 1 to 40 minimum wages and includes the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology used is the same as that of the IPCA, the difference lies in the price collection period and in the geographic coverage.
