The first estimate for the 2018 harvest presents an output estimate of 206.5 million metric tons for cereals, legumes and oilseeds, 8.9% below the total amount harvested in 2017. This decrease results from the reduced output estimates of all Major Regions: North (-3.2%),Northeast (-5.8%), Southeast (-4.8%), South (-12%) and Central-West (-8.0%). The tenth estimate for the 2018 harvest amounted to 241.6 million metric tons, with an increase of 30% against the 2016 figure (185.8 metric tons). The area o be harvested (61.2 million hectares) is 7.2% smaller than in the previous year. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 93.8% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increments of the rea planted with soybeans, 2.2%, corn, 19.3% and rice, 3.9%. Soybean, rice and corn crops recorded increases in output: 19.4%, 16.0% and 54.9%. 

By area, the tenth estimate for the 2017 harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to the following output distribution: Central West (75.1 million); South (73.4 million); Southeast (20.6 million); Northeast (9.7 million) and North (7.0 million).  Against the previous harvest, there were increases in all the Major Regions: Southeast (16.4%), North (23.3%), Northeast (86.6%), Central West (40.7%) and South (16.1%). In the 2017 survey, Mato Grosso led the ranking as the main national producer of grains, with a contribution of 26.2%, followed by Paraná (17.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.2%). These states, together, accounted for 58.6% of the national estimate.

First estimate for 2018 points to an output 8.9% smaller than in 2017 

In this first projection, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2018 was estimated at 220.2 million metric tons, 8.9% below the amount harvested in 2017. That decrease results from the reduced output expected for all the Major Regions: North (-3.2%), Northeast (-5.8%)_, Southeast (-4.8%), South (-12%) and Central West (-8.0%), mainly due to the lower output estimates of soybeans (6.3%) and corn (14.4%). 

Among the five most importan products to the following crop, four area expected to record negative changes in output: upland cotton seed (-1.5%), paddy rice (-6.8%), corn grain (-14.4%) and soybean (-6.3%). Bean seed is the only one with a positive prospect (1.3%). 

The estimated figures were added to the projections based on information of previous years, in the case of Federation Units whose initial estimates are not available. This first estimate was carried out by means of field surveys and calculated projections. Current data represent 87.9% of the national expected production, whereas projections represent the other 12.1%. 

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The first estimate for the cotton harvest points to an output of 3.8 million metric tons, with a decrease of 1.5% against the 2017 harvest. Planted area, 986.6 thousand hectares, is expected to increase 6.3%. The estimated average yield for 2018 is 3 827 kg/ha, with a decrease of 7.3% in relation to the previous harvest. Climatic conditions were beneficial in 2017, with more abundant and regular rainfall in the main areas of cotton production in Mato Grosso and Bahia, with benefit to crops. For 2018, uncertainties about the climate reduced the estimated average yield. According to the GCEA/MT, the estimated cotton output for 2018 is 2.7 million metric tons, with an increase of 3.2% against the 2017 harvest, with Mato Grosso accouting for 70.5 of the total to be produced net year. Although the planted area is expected to increase by 9.6%, and reach 675.8 hectares, average yield has an opposite prospect (-5.9%), being expected to reach 3 936 kg/ha.

PADDY RICE – The first estimate for the national output in 2018 is 11.5 million metric tons, with an average yield of 5 822 kg/ha, 6.8% and 4.6% smaller, respectively, than in 2017. The area to be planted in 2018 is expected to be 2.6% smaller. For rice, current data include 98.0% of the field prospect and 2.0% projection. The areas demarcated for rice crops, mainly for the irrigated type that represent more than half of the national rice output, can be more easily verified. The irrigated sections are usually known, and require previous preparation and systematization, being more stable and easy to be surveyed by field teams. Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer of rice in the country, is expected to to represent 70.8% of the total amount harvested in 2018. The estimated output for the state also presents a decrease of 1.5%. The state of Santa Catarina, the second main producer, the estimate is 1.1 million metric tons, with an average yield of 7 305 kg/ha, a decrease of 4.9% in relation to the 2017 harvest. 

BEAN SEED – The first estimate for the output of beans in 2018 is 3.4 million metric tons, with an increase of 1.3% in relation to the amount harvested in 2017. The 1st crop is expected to produce 1.6 million metric tons; the 2nd crop, 1.3 million metric tons, and the 3rd one, 520 thousand  metric tons. The area to be planted in the summer harvest (1st crop) is 1.8 million hectares, 2.6% less than in 2017. The area to be harvested is expected to be 0.4% smaller. The average yield is supposed to be 0.4% bigger, as long as climatic conditions favor the development of crops, as in 2017. The summer harvest of beans points to 1.6 milliom metric tons, being stable compared with ther amount obtained in the same period this year, with only 665 metric tons more. 

CORN GRAIN – The first estimate of corn grain ilho for 2018 points to an output of 85.1 million metric tons (-14.4%), which means decrease of 14.3 million metric tons against the 2017 harvest. In 2017, the record harvest in the country was 99.4 million metric tons. That increase occurred as a result of significant increments in planted area, and mainly of the average yield, because of the rainy weather that benefited crops in the main producing states, thus pushing the basis for comparison upwards. The trend towards a bigger volume of corn in the 2nd crop remains, and that crop must amount to 69.3% of the national output for 2018, versus 30.7% of participation in the 1st crop of corn. The prospect for the 1st crop is 26.1 million metric tons, 16.2% smaller in relation to the same period in 2017. Decreases of 6.4% in planted area and of 11.6% in average yield, versus results of 2017, contribute significantly to the decrease of corn output in the first crop for 2018. Due to the low pirces against those of last year, producers must reduce investments in corn crops, leaving soybeans as a priority. For corn 2nd crop, the estimated output is 59.0 million metric tons, decrease of 13.6% in relation to 2017. In 2018, the delay in the beginning of planting in the main producing states, as a result of the lack of rain, may lead to the decrease of planting areas of this cereal for the delay in the harvest of this cereal, and consequently, limit the "window of planting" of 2nd crop corn.  

SOYBEAN - The first output estimate for 2018 is 107.7 million metric tons, with a decrease of 6.3% in comparison with the result of 2017. The area to be planted with this legume is 34.4 million hectares, 1.4% bigger. The estimated average yield is 3 131 kg/ha, with a retraction of 7.7%, as a result of uncertainties regarding climate during the planting period. It is worth highlighting that, in the summer harvest 2017, there was abundance and regularity of rainfall in the main producing states, with a historical record of national output, being a relatively high basis for comparison. Because of the better prices of soybean versus corn, producers must expand the areas directed to that legume, expected to cover 48% of the overall output of grains. Among the main producers, Mato Grosso, which is expected to account for 28.2% of the overal, expects to harvest 30.4 million metric tons, 0.2% less than in 2017, in spite of the 1.0% increase in planted area. Paraná, the second main producer, accounting for 18.3% of the national total, expects to produce a total 19.7 million metric tons, with a decrease of 0.5%, in spite of the increase of 5.5% in planted area. Rio Grande do Sul, the third state in the ranking of soybean production, expects to produce 14.7 million metric tons, with a decrease of 21.7% in relation to 2017. Goiás, with 10.4 million metric tons and Mato Grosso do Sul, with 8.4 million metric tons estimated decreases of 8.7% and 7.7% in output, respectively. Minas Gerais, with 5.2 million metric tons and Maranhão, with 2.5 million metric tons, have estimated increases of 2.9% and 7.5%, respectively, in 2018. The planting of the new harvest, after a slow beginning due to the lack of rain in the main producing states, was more developed after the second half of October, with producers taking advantage of the increase of rainfall. That resulted in adequate moisture conditions in the soil; to save time, in many farms, work goes on thought the night, as proof of the technological efficiency of Brazilian producers. 

Highlights in the October estimate against the 2017 harvest 

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of October, the highlights were changes in the following output estimates, in comparison with the results of September: coffee bean - canephora (+11.4%), barley (-7.6%), bean seed - 2nd crop (-3.6%), coffee bean - arabica (-2.2%), oats (-1.4%) and wheat (-1.0%).

COFFEE BEAN – The output estimate for coffee recorded an increase of 0.8% against the previous month, due to the reduction of average yield, which increased 1.4%. The areas planted and harvested fell by 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The overall output of coffee is 2.8 million metric tons, or 46.3 million 60 kg bags. The increase was due to the good performance of coffea canephora (conillon), which increased 11.4% against ther previos year, making up for the reduction of estimate of coffee arabica, which fell by 2.2% this month. The production of conillon in the country is expected to reach 684.2 thousand metric tons, or 11.4 million sacks of 60 kg. In Bahia, the rainy climate caused bigger flowering, formation of pinheads and better conditions for the filling of grains. The average yield increased 63.6%, whereas the planted area and the area to be harvested increased 12.7% and 18.9%, respectively. Bahia expects to harvest a total 143.6 thousand metric tons, or 2.4 million sacks of 60 kg. Better prices of conillon coffee and cheaper land in the south of Bahia have incentived the planting of new crops in the state, which is the main producer in the country, with 21.0% of the naional overall. For coffea arabica, the output estimate was 2.1 million metric tons, or 34.9 million sacks of 60 kg. Late crops were also affected by the extremely dry ahd hot weather during the winter, with negative impacts on poutput. In Bahia, there was a decrease of 42.4% in the production estimate, resulting in decreases of 30.7% in the average yield and of 16.8% in the harvested area.

WINTER CROPS (grain) – The estimated output of wheat in October fell by 1.0% in comparison with that of the previous month, and amounted to 5.2 million metric tons. The average yield was reduced by 1.0%. The GCEA/PR informed a decrease of 2.1% in the output estimate of Paraná, minly due to the decrease of 2.0% in the average yield. The output estimate in the state reflects the unfavorable conditions to the development of crops in 2017, after frosts and a long dry period followed by excee of rain during the harvesting period. The output estimate for oats points to 877.2 thousand metric tons, with a decrese of 1.4% against the previous year, recorded by Paraná. According to the GCEA/PR, the expected output is 140.4 thousand metric tons, with a decrease of 3.2% against the figure in the previous year. The areas planted and to be harvested record a decrease of 0.3%, with decrease of average yield (2.9%). The problems caused by the harsh cimate conditions also affected oat crops. The output estimate for the production of barley also fell in October, compared with the figure of September (-7.6%), and also due to the unfavorable climate that also affected average yield. The country must harvest 367.5 thousand metric tons of barley in 2017. The monthly data were influenced by the results of Paraná, which reduced by 16.2% the output estimate in the state, with a change from 186.5 thousand to 156.3 thousand, a decrease of 30.2 thousand metric tons. According to the latest report received, crops had been affeted by harsh clmatic conditions in the South Region, an area responsible for the output of barley (98.4%); oats (94.2%) and wheat (87.8%) to be produced in the country in 2017. Rainfall caused delay in planting; then came a series of frosts and a period of low teperature; more recently, a dry period caused delay and damaged the development of crops. 

BEAN SEED – The national output estimate of beans, in October, recorded a decrease of 1.2% in relation to September, and is expected to reach 3.3 million metric tons. The reduced output of beans, against the September figure, reflects the unfavorable climate conditions which occurred throughout the 2nd crop, mainly. There was no change in the output estimate for beans 1st crop, and a slight positive change of 0.7% in the 3rd harvest estimate, which mean an increase of only 3.9 thousand metric tons in output. For the 2nd crop of beans estimates indicate a decrease of 3.6% against the September figure, reflecting the decrease of average yield (3.5%), since planted area remained unchanged.  The decrease of the output estimate in this 2nd crop of beans ocuurred mainly due to the results in the Northeast, with decreases in Pernambuco (-7.2%), Alagoas (-6.2%) and, mainly, Bahia (-24.4%), due to corrections in the average yield figures of those states. 

October estimate versus 2016 output

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives froThem IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to demands of users, the surveys for cereals (rice, corn, oats, rye, barley, osrghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cottonseed, castor beans, soybean and sunflower seeds) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Company (Conab), of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) in a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates, which started in March 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.