The fourth estimate for the national output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2015 amounted to 201.0 million metric tons, 4.2% above that of 2014 (192.9 million metric tons) and 1,250,329 metric tons (0.6%) above the March estimate. The estimated area to be harvested is 57.5 million hectares, with increase of 2.0% in comparison with the area harvested in 2014 (56.4 million hectares), and increase of 0.4% versus that of the previous month. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, represented 91.6% of the national output estimate and accounted for 85.4% of the area to be harvested. Compared with the previous year there were decreases of area by 4.7% for soybeans and 0.1% for corn. Rice registered decrease of 3.5%. With reference to output, there were increases of 0.7% for rice, 10.6% for soybeans and decrease of 3.1% for corn. The complete publication can be seen at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

By area, the production volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded the following distribution: Central West, 81.4 million metric tons; South, 76.3 million metric tons; Northeast, 18.9 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.3 million metric tons; and North, 6.0 milhlion metric tons. In comparison with last harvest, there was incremente of 2.3% in te Southeast and of 7.9% in the South Region. The Central West recorded decrease of 1.8% in relation to the output of 2014. Considering 2015, Mato Grosso was the leader as the main national producer, with participation of 23.4%, followed by Paraná (18.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.2%), which, together, represented 58.1% of the expected national total.

EApril estimates versus March 2015 figures

In comparison with March 2015, the highlights were the output estimates of corn - 2nd crop (+1.3%), wheat (+1.2%), sugarcane (+0.9%), soybeans (+0.9%), corn - 1st crop (-0.6%), beans - 3rd crop (-0.8%), potatoes 3rd crop (-1.4%) and coffee canéfora (-1.6%).

COFFEE BEAN - CANEPHORA – The production estimate reached 660.1 thousand metric tons (11.0 million 60 kg sacks), with decrease of 1.6% in relation to March. There was decrease of estimates of planted área (-0.8%), área to be harvested (-0.9%) and average yield (-0.7%). The crops have been facing the consequences of harsh climate in the main producing states. In Espírito Santo, the biggest producer and responsible for 68.5% of the national total, the lack of rain has caused reduction of the weight of grains and fall of the crop yield. The state expects to harvest 452.4 Thousand metric tons, with a decrease of 1.1% in relation to the previous month.

SUGARCANE – The output estimate is 678.9 milllion metric tons, with increase of 0.9% versus the March figure. The area to be harvested increased 0.1% and the average yield did by 0.8%. The increase of the output estimate in the Central West was 5.5% in relation to the previous month, making up for the losses expected for the Southeast (-0.4%), the biggest producer. Only in Mato Grosso do Sul has the estimate increased by 12.8% in relation to the previous month, as a result of yield, expected to rise 12.0%. The estimated output for 2015 is 50.2 million metric tons. In Goiás, the main regional producer of sugarcane, with 62.3 million metric tons, the estimate points to 2.0%.

BEAN SEED - 3rd crop – Following the decrease of 0.7% in the estimate of planted area, the output estimate ffell by 0.8% in comparison with the March result, and stayed at 413,362 metric tons. Such decrease was caused by the update of estimates in Minas Gerais, the main national producer in the 3rd crop, with 49.2% of the output. Surveys in the state point to decrease of 1.5% in planted área and of 1.6% in the output.

MILHO (em grão) – The estimated output of corn for this harvest is 76.3 million metric tons, with increase of 0.5% in relation to the previous month. Cron - 1st crop will amount to 30.8 million metric tons, with retraction of 0.6% in relation to the previous month. Such decrease was influenced by Minas Gerais, which reduced by 0.9% the planted área and by 1.4% the harvesteda area, with na estimated output of 5.4 milllion metric tons, 1.5% below the March result. The expected production for corn - 2nd crop is 45.5 milllion metric tons, 1.3% bigger than in March. The increase of harvested área by 0.9% and of the average yield by 0.4% account for the production rise. Mato Grosso do Sul expects to have na average yield 4.2% higher than in March. The output is estimated at 7.7 milllion metric tons, 4.8% bigger than in the previous month. Paraná, in spite of the decrease of 0.7% in average yiled, points to na increase in the harvested área of 1.3% versus March results. The production of 10.0 milllion metric tons is 0.7% bir above the March estimate.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The expected soybean output is 95.6 milllion metric tons, with increase of 0.9% versus the March figure. Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Paraná account for 72.3% of the estimate increase. Mato Grosso do Sul presentes estimated average yield 3.2% above that of March. This state also presentes planted área of 1.4%, causing the production estimate to be 7.1 million metric tons, 4.7% more than in March. Goiás expects na average yield of 2,605 kg/hectare (43.4 sacks/hectare), with increase of 1.0% in relation to the previous month. The rise of 0.6% in the harvested area, together with the increase of average yield, causes the production output to be 8.6 million metric tons, 1.5% above the March result. Paraná increaed its average yield by 0.8%, with a change to 3,293 kg/hectare (54.9 sacks/hectare). The hike in the estimate was 0.9%, amounting to a total 17.2 million metric tons.

WHEAT (grain) – The current output estimate is 7,807,770 metric tons, in na área to be planted of 2,809,127 hectares, with na average yield of 2,781 kg/ha, 1.2%, 0.5% and 0.7% bigger, respectively, when compared with data in the previous year. Also regardimg planting intention statues, the GCEA of Paraná estimated na área of 1,356,320 hectares, 0.5% bigger when compared to that in the previous year. Estimates for production and average yield are 4,070,420 metric tons and 3,001 kg/ha, 0.6% and 0.2% bigger, respectively. Up to the end of the period, planting had taken place in only 8% of the expected area. Planted crops had good appearance, and followed the steps of egermination (60%) and vegetative development (40%). Rio Grande do Sul, the second biggest national producer, kept the estimates of the previous month.

April 2015 estimate in relation to the 2014 output

Among the 26 main products, 11 recorded positive change versus figures in the previous year: peanuts in the shelll - 1st crop (0.4%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (3.5%), paddy rice (0.7%), oat grain (22.6%), barley grain (10.0%), bean seed - 1st crop (7.9%), castor beans (140.4%), cassava (5.1%), corn grain - 1st crop (0.6%), soybean grain (10.6%) and wheat grain (26.7%). With negative change, there are 15 products: upland cottonseed (10.9%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.8%), potatoes 2nd crop (2.0%), potatoes 3rd crop (20.5%), cacao nuts (10.9%), coffea bean – arabica (1.8%), coffee bean – canephora(16.6%), sugarcane (1.4%), onions (4.4%), bean seed 2nd crop (1.9%), bean seed 3rd crop (12.1%), oranges (7.0%), corn grain 2nd crop (5.5%), sorghum grain (12.2%) and triticale grain (13.5%). The most significant production increment, in absolute figures and surpassing 2.0 million metric tons, versus the 2014 figure, was that of soybeans (9,189,792 t). NIn this comparison, the bigges negative changes were those of sugarcane (-9,724,321 t ) and corn (-2,466,873 t).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.