Retail trade had the third increase over the previous month, in the seasonally-adjusted series.

In June 2017, the national retail trade recorded advance of 1.2% in the volume of sales and of 0.8% in the nominal revenue, both over May (seasonally-adjusted series). Such results register, respectively, a sequence of three consecutive positive rates in this comaprison. Thus, the quarterly moving average, virtually stable in the last two months, both for volume and for nominal sales, records changes of 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.

In the non-adjusted series, in the comparison with the same month a year ago, the retail total had expansion of 3.0% in June 2017, the third consecutive positive result in this comparison, although sharper than the May's (2.6%) and April's (1.7%). In the cumulative index for the first six months of 2017, retail registered a change of -0.1% for the volume of sales, getting close to stability over the same semester of 2016. The annualized rate, cumulative indicator in the last twelve months, with a drop of 3.0%, kept on reducing the pace of decline, started in October 2016 (-6.8%). On the ohter hand, the nominal revenue of sales of the retail trade, in June 2017, registered for the same comparisons, respectively: 2.4% over June 2016, 1.9% in the cumulative index of the year and 3.2% in the cumulative index over 12 months.

Considering the extended retail trade, which includes, besides the retail activities, Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material, in June 2017, the expansion was of 2.5% for the volume of sales and of 2.2% for the nominal revenue, both compared to May 2017, in the seasonally-adjusted series.

In relation to June 2016, the advance in the volume of sales of the extented retail trade was of 4.4% for volume and 3.5% for the revenue of sales.  In the cumulative index in the year, the volume of sales recorded positive change of 0.3%, whereas the indicator for the last twelve months (-4.1%) kept on reducing the pace of decline, initiated in July 2016 (-10.4%). The complete publication of the survey can be accessed  here.

Six activities record positive rates in retail

Between May and June 2017, the volume of the retail trade had expansion of 1.2%, with prevalence of positive rates in six of the eight activities surveyed. The main positive highlights were recorded by the sector of Furniture and domestic appliances (2.2%); Fabric, apparel and footwear (5.4%); Other articles of personal and domestic use (2.7%). Other sectors with a positive contribution are: Fuels and lubricants (1.2%); Pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles (1.5%); and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (4.5%).

On the other hand, negatively influencing the global retail average, the highlight is mainly Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with a drop of 0.4% after an advance of 1.1% recorded in May; followed by Office, computer and communication equipment and material (-2.6%). In the same comparison, the extended retail trade advanced 2.5% over May 2017, with vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces recording an advance of 3.8%, after growing 2.0% in the previous month, whereas  construction material had increase of 1.0% for that same comparison:

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the volume of the retail trade advanced 3.0% in June 2017, with widespread positive results in all the surveyed activities. By sectors, the major impacts, in terms of contribution to the formation of the global rate of June, were seen in furniture and household appliances (12.7%); fabric, apparel and footwear (4.6%); other articles of personal and domestic use (4.3%); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (0.8%); pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic goods and toiletries (3.0%); fuels and lubricants (0.5%); office, computer and communication equipment and material (5.1%); and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery, with an advance of 1.2%. It is worth highlighting that June 2017 (21 workdays) had a workday less than June 2016 (22 days).

In June 2017, the segment of furniture and household appliances, having expanded 12.7% in the volume of sales in relation to June last year, accounted for the greatest contribution in the formation of the positive global rate of retail (3.0%). With a sale dynamics associated to forward purchases, June's result was stimulated by the 12.9% reduction in the average cost of credit to families, by the low comparison basis and the lowest price change. As a result, the cumulative indicator in the year showed an advance of 5.9% while the cumulative indicator of the last twelve months, the change is still negative (-2.9%), but it remained giving signs of reduction in the pace of decline.

The segment of fabric, apparel and footwear recorded a rise of 4.6% in the volume of sales in June 2017, against the same month a year ago. The performance was influenced by the celebrations of the festive dates of the month of June, favored by the recomposition of the real wage bill[1] circulating in the economy. In terms of cumulative performances along the semester, the change rate was of 5.8%, and in the last 12 months, of 3.6%.

The activity of other articles of personal and household use, which encompasses department, optical, jewelry shops, sporting goods and toy stores, etc., exerted the second biggest positive impact in the retail trade rate (-2.7%), with a change of 4.3% in volume of sales in relation to June 2016. The performance was stimulated, to a great extent, by the expansion of online sales but also reflects an increase in the real income, resulting directly from the systematic reduction of price changes. In cumulative terms, the rate for the first semester of the year was -0.9% and, for the last 12 months, -4.3%.

By changing 0.8% in volume of sales over the same month last year, the segment of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco exerted the third biggest contribution to the general index in the month of June. This activity keeps a direct relation with the evolution of the real usual wage bill[2]. In cumulative terms, the rate for the first six months of the year was -0.6% and, for the last 12 months, -1.8%.

By expanding the volume of sales by 3.0% over June last year, the activity of pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles, and toiletries was the third highest contribution to the overall retail trade. The cumulative volume of sales in six months registered a change of -0.9% and, for the last 12 months, -2.6%.

The sector of fuels and lubricants, recording a change of 0.5% in the volume of sales in relation to June 2016, interrupted a sequence of 29 months of negative rates in this comparison. The reduction of prices, below the general interest rate, has been influencing the sector's behavior. In terms of cumulative performances along the semester, the change rate was of -3.5%, and in the last 12 months, of 6.2%.

The segment of office, computer and communication equipment and material, expanding 5.1% against June 2016, recorded the third positive result in a row in this kind of comparison. Among the factors that have been decisive for this performance, the highlight is the influence of the Dollar depreciation against the Real, affecting the prices of some imported electronic components, specially computers and electronic devices. Besides, there was the reduction of the price changes of the main product (computers), which is in this sector. In cumulative terms, the rate of the semester was -2.4% and in the last twelve months, of -5.5%.

With the increase of 1.2% in the volume of sales in June 2017, the activity of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery showed expansion, after a decrease of 0.8% in May. In the cumulative volume of sales for the first semester of the year, the change was of -3.6% and, for the last 12 months, -9.3%.

Still in the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the expanded retail trade recorded expansion of 4.4%, accumulating a positive change of 0.3% in the semester, interrupting 35 months of negative rates in a row.  In the cumulative index for the last twelve months, the decline was of 4.1%.  

Retail interrupts nine consecutive quarters of negative rates

On a quarterly basis, the volume of retail trade, registering expansion of 2.5% in the second quarter of 2017, interrupted nine consecutive quarters of negative rates in this type of comparison, both comparisons in relation to the same quarter of the previous year. The increase in the pace of retail sales between the first (-2.7%) and the second quarter of 2017 (2.5%) was observed in all activities, especially in office, computer and communication equipment and material (-11.2% to 7.5%); other articles of personal and household use (from -5.3% to 3.6%); and furniture and household appliances (from 3.0% to 8.9%).

The expanded retail trade showed a similar performance as the 2.9% advance in the second quarter of the year, interrupting twelve consecutive negative rates in the quarter. This movement was particularly influenced by the performance observed in vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which significantly reduced the pace of decline by registering a -1.0% change in the second quarter, after a decline of 7.7% in the first quarter of the year of 2017, while the construction material advanced from 4.3% to 5.1% in the second quarter.

 Retail has fifth semester in a row with negative rates

In the index by semester, the retail total, indicating variation of -0.1% in the first six months of 2017, registered the fifth semester in a row of negative rates, but with the lowest change in this type of comparison since the first half of 2015 (-2.1%). Among the activities that make up the retail sector, the results for the first six months of 2017 showed a greater dynamism in furniture and household appliances (5.9%) and fabrics, wearing apparel and footwear (5.8%), sectors that registered expansion of comparison. The reduction in the pace of decline in retail sales from the second half of 2016 (-5.6%) to the first half of 2017 (-0.1%), both comparisons against the same period a year ago, was observed in all activities, with a highlight to Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (from -14.9% to -3.6%). 

Considering the extended retail trade, the advance of 0.3% in the first half of the year showed a reduction in the pace of decline compared to the second half of 2016 (-8.1%). This result was influenced both by the movement observed in vehicle, motorcycle, parts and pieces, which, recording a -4.4% rate, reduced the pace of decline in sales compared to the previous semester (-14.2%), and by the movement in Construction material (-8.4% to 4.7%).

Volume of Sales increases in 24 Federation Units

Regionally, in June 2017, 24 of the 27 Federation Units showed an increase in the volume of sales compared to the previous month, in the seasonally-adjusted series. The positive highlights, in terms of magnitude, were: Roraima (4.9%); Tocantins (3.3%); and Alagoas (2.4%). On the other hand, Paraíba, with a change of -2.4%, recorded the largest drop in sales volume among the 27 states.

In comparison with June 2016, the increase in the volume of retail sales reached 18 of the 27 states. The highlights, in terms of magnitude, were Santa Catarina (12.7%) and Alagoas (11.3%), as shown in Graph 6. Regarding the contribution the composition of the retail trade rate, the highlights are the changes of São Paulo (3.4%), followed by Minas Gerais (6.7%).

With regard to the Extended Retail Trade, 23 of the 27 Federation Units registered positive results, in terms of volume of sales, compared to June 2016. Santa Catarina (15.7%) had the highest rate. As for the largest negative shares in the composition of the expanded retail trade rate, there are changes of 3.0% in São Paulo and 15.7% in Santa Catarina.

In summary, the volume of retail sales, registering 1.2% in June 2017, increased for the third consecutive month, accumulating in this period a gain of 2.5% in the seasonally-adjusted series. In an upward trend lately, the retail total offset the 1.1% loss recorded last March, but it is 8.4% below the record level reached in November 2014. Again in the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average (0.8%) increased the growth pace compared to the previous month (-0.1).

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the retail sector remained positive for the third consecutive month, registering a 3.0% increase, with a predominance of positive rates among the eight activities investigated in the retail market. In the cumulative index in the year, the signs of greater dynamism are also evidenced in the rate of -0.1%, which, despite being the fifth consecutive negative rate by semesters, was the less intense change among these results. The annualized indicator, accumulated in the last twelve months (-3.0%), keeps showing a reduction in the pace of decline.