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EIn July, IBGE expects grain crops to be 31.1% higher than 2016´s

August 10, 2017 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 04, 2017 09h29 AM

Over June, production increased 1.8 million metric tons (0.7%) and area expanded 74.5 thousand hectares (0.1%)

July's estimate for 2017

242.1 million metric tons

June 2017/July 2017 - change

0.7% (1.8 million metric tons)

2016 crop/2017 crop - change

31.1% (57.4 million metric tons)

 

The estimate of July 2017 for the national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounted for 242.1 million metric tons, 31.1% higher than that of 2016 (184.7 million metric tons), an increase of  57.4 million metric tons. The estimated area to be harvested (61.1 million hectares) increased 7.1% over the harvested area in 2016 (57.1 million hectares). Over June, production increased 1.8 million metric tons (0.7%) and the area grew 74.5 thousand hectares (0.1%). Record forecast for soybeans (115.0 million metric tons) and corn (99.4 million metric tons) have been estimated.

Rice, corn and soybeans, main products of this group, represent together 93.6% of the production estimate and 87.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2016, there were increases of 2.3% in the area to be harvested for soybeans, 18.4% for corn and of 4.0% for rice. As for production, there were increases of 19.7% for soybeans, 16.3% for rice and 56.1% for corn. The complete publication can be accessed here.

In this evaluation for the year 2017, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 25.7%, followed by Paraná (17.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.1%). These states together accounted for 58.3% of the national forecast. Other important states in the production of grains were Goiás (9.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.9%), Minas Gerais (5.9%), São Paulo (3.8%), Bahia (3.3%), Santa Catarina (2.9%) and Maranhão (1.9%), which also integrate the group of the ten biggest producers in the country.

July's estimate for 2017’s crop is 0.7% higher than June's

The changes in the following production estimates of July were the highlights in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production over June: orange (16.0%), beans - 3rd crop (5.3%), corn - 2nd crop (2.1%), upland  cottonseed (2.0%), coffea canephora (1.6%), beans - 1st crop (1.6%), coffea arabica (1.5%), rice (1.2%), sugarcane (1.2%), corn - 1st crop (1.0%), beans - 2nd crop (-0.9%) and wheat (-6.5%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate of cotton reached 3.7 million metric tons, a growth of 2.0% over the previous month, with the average yield growing 1.6%. The data were affected by Mato Grosso, with a production estimate of 2.5 million metric tons, an increase of 2.8% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and area to be harvested were revised up 0.4% and the average yield increased 2.4%, reflecting the rainy weather favoring the crops.

PADDY RICE -The production of rice reached 12.3 million metric tons, an increase of 1.2% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested were up 0.3% and the average yield increased 0.9%. Data were influenced mainly by Rio Grande do Sul, major national producer, with a participation of 70.8% in the current crop, which had its estimate revised up by 1.4% due to the fact that crops presented a higher average yield, with a possibility of reaching 8.7 million metric tons. The current crop was benefited by the weather in the Sate and it assured good quality of water in the reservoirs that are used in the irrigation of trays. In the Northeast, the rainy weather also benefited the production of upland rice. The production estimate reached 474.6 million metric tons, a growth of 3.4%  over the previous month, with the average yield growing 3.2%. Maranhão stood out in terms of production, 258.8 thousand metric tons, an increase of 0.4%, and Sergipe, 54.1 thousand metric tons, an increase of 30.7%

COFFEE BEANS – The production estimate of coffee achieved 2.8 million metric tons or 47.2 million sacks (60 kg sack), an advance of 1.5% in relation to the previous year. In July, there were rises in the production estimate in Espírito Santo and in São Paulo. For coffea arabica, the production estimate of reached 2.2 million metric tons or 37.2 million sacks (60 kg sack), an increase of 1.5% in relation to the previous year. São Paulo had its estimate revised up in July, 265.9 thousand metric tons, or a rise of 14.9%. The planted area and the area to be harvested were revised up to 20.0% and 20.3%, whereas the average yield should fall 4.5%. In regard to coffea canephora, the estimated production reached 599.4 thousand metric tons, an increase of 1.6% over the previous month. This advance is due to the average yield that grew by the same percentage. Data were affected by Espírito Santo, whose production was revised positively by 2.9% because of the increase in the average yield that advanced by the same value. The weather favored the crops in the main producing municipalities, with bigger and stronger grains.

SUGARCANE - The estimated overall production of sugarcane in July was 712.1 million metric tons, a growth of 1.2% over the previous month. This result reflects the review of the production in the states of São Paulo, Goiás, Espírito Santo and Tocantins, with production estimates revised up by 1.4%, 10.9%, 13.1% and 12.7%, respectively. The estimates tend to be reviewed as the harvesting process takes place. São Paulo, major national producer, accounting for 54.4% of the production, increased the planted are by 5.1% and reduced the average yield by 3.4%. In Goiás there was also increase in the planted area, by 10.2%. In Espírito Santo and in Tocantins, the increase of production is directly associated to the rise in productivity, since this year is more rainy, which favored the sugarcane culture. In Paraná, there were reductions of 2.8% in production, of 1.2% in area and of 1.7% in the average yield. Due to a below-average level of renewal, productivity of the sugarcane cultures is lower this year.

BEAN SEEDS - The production estimate of beans was 3.3 million metric tons. Compared to the month of June, the estimated planted area with beans increased 0.8%. In this survey, the biggest producers are Paraná with 21.4%, Minas Gerais with 16.3% and Goiás with 9.7% of contribution to the national production. The 1st crop of beans is estimated at 1.6 million metric tons, a rise of 1.6% in production, over June's estimate. This is mainly due to the revision of the estimates of the Northeast Region, where there was a 22.1 thousand metric tons increase that represented 5.2% more than June. This effect is related to favorable weather conditions.

The 2nd crop of beans presented a reduction of 0.9% over June's estimate, followed by decrease in the average yield, which was of 3.9%. Reduction in the production forecast of 2nd crop beans is mostly due to the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. On Paraná, the 4.6% reduction followed an average yield that diminished 8.2% in relation to June. In Rio Grande do Sul, the 34.3% reduction of the average yield estimate and of 6.6% in the harvested generated a drop of 38.7% in the production estimate in relation to the previous month. The excessive rainfall during the final phase of the crops cycle prevented the proper cultural cares, increased the incidence of diseases and made harvest difficult.

In relation to 3rd crop beans, the forecast is of increase of 5.3% in the production estimate in relation to last estimate. São Paulo is the state with the biggest influence in this result, because the estimate indicates rises of 30.9% in the planted area, of 21.7% in the average yield and of 59.3% in production. The biggest producers of this crop are Minas Gerais (37.0%), Goiás (30.0%) and Mato Grosso (13.6%).

ORANGE -The estimated production reached 17.0 million metric tons, an increase of 16.0% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested were up 4.6% and 5.1%, respectively, whereas the average yield increased 10.4%. Data were influenced by São Paulo, biggest national producer and responsible for 74.5% of the total, which reported a production estimate of 12.7 million metric tons, an increase of 23.1% over the previous month; an estimate of planted area of 491.6 thousand hectares, an increase of 7.5%; an estimate of area to be harvested of 431.5 thousand hectares, a rise of 8.3% and an estimate of average yield of 29,384 kg/ha, growth of 13.7%. The price rises of orange juice on the international market from the second half of 2016 on encouraged producers to renew plantations and invest in technology, which resulted in productivity gains.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate of corn kept growing in July. The total harvest must amounted to 99.4 million metric tons, a rise of 1.7% in relation the previous month. Production of corn - 1st crop reached 31.2 million metric tons, an increase of 1.0%. This increase reflects the positive revisions in production in several states: Mato Grosso (7.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (0.4%), Paraná (2.6%), São Paulo (2.5%), Pará (2.2%), Tocantins (1.7%), Ceará (12.9%), Rio Grande do Norte (4.8%) and Alagoas (4.4%), associated to the increases due to the certainty of a bigger productivity and a higher quality product.

For corn - 2nd crop - planted after the summer crop, the production estimate reached 68.2 million metric tons, an increase of 2.1% in relation to the previous year. Data were influenced mainly by the estimates of São Paulo and Mato Grosso. In São Paulo, the production estimate of 2.1 million metric tons grew 31.2% over the previous month, with the average yield growing 26.6%. Conversely, for Mato Grosso there was a rise of 3.9%, with increase of 1.8% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested, an advance of 2.0% in the average yield. The state must harvest a record crop of 28.2 million metric tons of corn. These expansions are associated to a better corn cob "graining", seen in the occasion of the beginning of the harvest in these states.

WHEAT GRAIN - In July, the production estimate of wheat fell 6.5% over the previous month. As a whole, Brazil must harvest 5.7 million metric tons of this cereal. Drops of 3.8% in the area to be planted and in the area to the harvested and reduction of 2.8% in the average yield are a reflex of the data revision of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. Paraná, major producer in the country, with a contribution of 49.7% to the national index, expects to harvest a crop of 2.8 million metric tons of wheat, a reduction of 8.1% over the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested dropped 2.2% and the average yield was revised down to 6.0%. Wheat crops have been suffering due to unfavorable weather conditions since the beginning of the planting: up to June, because of excessive rainfall, and after that because of scarcity, which persists, besides the strong frosts in the midst of June. Rio Grande do Sul, second biggest producer, with participation of 36.8% in the national total, expects a harvest of 2.1 million metric tons, a reduction of 4.8% over the previous month, with decrease of 4.4% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested, and drop of 0.5% in the average yield. Less compensating prices and trading difficulties influenced the producers' decision, who reduced the investment in their crops; some of them preferred to invest in alternative crops during the winter, as oat and barley.

July's estimate over 2016's output

In the following table are percentage and absolute changes of the main crops surveyed, in comparison with the previous crops. The highlights in 2017 are attributable to soybean production, which reaches 115.0 million metric tons, and to corn production, which reaches 99.4 million metric tons, both hitting records for the country.

Annual Production and Change By Product
    
Produto 2016 Production (t) 2017 Production (t) Change (%)
Upland cottonsed                  3 378 197                3 710 635 9.8
Peanuts (1ª safra)                  425 133                    531 450 25.0
Peanuts (2ª safra)                    19 653                      12 322 -37.3
Rice                10 608 861                12 339 668 16.3
Oat                  884 051                    891 085 0.8
Potatoes (1ª safra)                  1 852 816                1 947 156 5.1
Potatoes  (2ª safra)                  1 137 803                1 214 922 6.8
Potatoes  (3ª safra)                  943 669                    955 819 1.3
Cacao nut                  214 065                    235 631 10.1
Coffea Arabica                  2 580 601                2 233 623 -13.4
Coffea Canephora                  467 064                    599 373 28.3
Sugarcane              706 353 038                712 052 003 0.8
Onion                  1 578 554                1 683 599 6.7
Barley                  374 092                    443 239 18.5
Beans (1st crop)                  1 140 541                1 622 433 42.3
Beans (2nd crop)                  953 784                1 216 382 27.5
Beans (3rd crop)                  478 158                    486 679 1.8
Orange                15 917 673                17 018 290 6.9
Castor beans                    22 096                      11 926 -46.0
Cassava                23 004 940                20 145 375 -12.4
Corn (1st crop)                24 380 242                31 170 712 27.9
Corn (2nd crop)                39 263 181                68 183 051 73.7
Soybeans                96 084 324                114 996 100 19.7
Sorghum                  1 169 464                2 089 923 78.7
Wheat                  6 698 914                5 672 293 -15.3
Triticale                    50 590                      52 411 3.6