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Continuous PNAD: unemployment rate stays at 11.2% in quarter ending in April 2016

May 31, 2016 09h04 AM | Last Updated: February 02, 2018 01h04 PM

Indicator / Period Feb - Mar - Apr 2016 Nov - Dec - Jan 2016 Feb - Mar - Apr 2015

Unemployment rate

11.2%

9.5%

8.0%

Usual real earnings

R$1,962

R$1,977

R$2,030

Value of earnings on relation to:

-0.7% (stable)

-3.3%

 

The unemployment rate (11.2%) increased 1.7 p.p. (percentage points) in the moving quarter ended in April in relation to the moving quarter ended in January (9.5%) and increased 3.2 p.p. in relation to the same moving quarter in 2015 (8.0%). This was the highest unemployment rate since the beginning of the survey in January 2012. The unemployed population (11.4 million persons) rose in both comparisons: 18.6% (or more 1.8 million persons) in relation to the moving quarter ended in January 2016 and 42.1% (more 3.4 million unemployed persons) in relation to the same moving quarter in 2015. The employed population (90.6 million persons) declined (-1.1%) in relation to the quarter between November 2015 and January 2016 and also dropped (-1.7%, or less 1.5 persons working) compared with the same quarter in 2015. The number of persons employed in the private sector with a formal contract retreated in both comparisons: over the quarter ended in January 2016 (-1.8%) and over the same quarter last year (-4.3% or less about 1.5 million persons in this condition). The average usual real earnings from all jobs earned by employed persons (R$1,962) stood statistically stable against the moving quarter ended in January 2016 (R$1,977) and declined (-3.3%) in relation to the same quarter in 2015 (R$2,030). The usual real wage bill from all jobs earned by employed persons (R$173.3 billion) fell in the quarterly and annual comparisons (-1.5% and -4.3%, respectively).
The complete publication of the Continuous PNAD can be accessed
here.

 

The indicators of the Continuous PNAD were calculated for moving quarters, using the information of the last three consecutive months of the survey. The rate of the moving quarter ended in April 2016 was computed from the information collected in February 2016, March 2016 and April 2016. For example, the information used for the calculation of the indicators for the moving quarters ended in February and March had a percentage of data repetition of about 66%. This repetition only ceases to exist after an interval of two moving quarters. More information on the methodology of the survey can be found here.

The comparison of the estimates between the moving quarter of February to April 2016 with that of November 2015 to January 2016 pointed out that the unemployment rate increased (1.7 percentage points), changing from 9.5% to 11.2%. Compared with the same moving quarter in the previous year, February to April 2015, when the rate was estimated at 8.0%, an increase was also recorded (3.2 percentage points).

About 11.4 million unemployed persons lived in Brazil in the quarter between February and April 2016. This estimate in the quarter of November 2015 to January 2016 accounted for 9.6 million, representing an increase of 18.6% or more 1.8 million persons in this contingent. Compared with the same quarter last year, this estimate rose 42.1%, resulting in an increase of 3.4 million unemployed persons in the workforce.

 

 

Chart 1 - Unemployment Rate - Brazil - 2012/2016

Moving quarter 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1st

Nov-Dec-Jan

...

7.2

6.4

6.8

9.5

2nd

Dec-Jan-Feb

...

7.7

6.8

7.4

10.2

3rd

Jan-Feb-Mar

7.9

8.0

7.2

7.9

10.9

4th

Feb-Mar-Apr

7.8

7.8

7.1

8.0

11.2

5th

Mar-Apr-May

7.6

7.6

7.0

8.1

 

6th

Apr-May-Jun

7.5

7.4

6.8

8.3

 

7th

May-Jun-Jul

7.4

7.3

6.9

8.6

 

8th

Jun-Jul-Aug

7.3

7.1

6.9

8.7

 

9th

Jul-Aug-Sep

7.1

6.9

6.8

8.9

 

10th

Aug-Sep-Oct

6.9

6.7

6.6

9.0

 

11th

Sep-Oct-Nov

6.8

6.5

6.5

9.0

 

12th

Oct-Nov-Dec

6.9

6.2

6.5

9.0

 

Source: IBGE, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua.

 

The number of employed persons was estimated at 90.6 million. Compared with the quarter between November 2015 and January 2016, this population declined 1.1%. When compared with the same quarter in the previous year, a drop of 1.7% was registered, representing less 1.5 million persons.

The employment population ratio was estimated at 54.6% in the quarter of February to April 2016, representing a drop of 0.9 percentage points against the quarter of November 2015 to January 2016. Having changed from 56.3% to 54.6% (-1.6 p.p.), this indicator also retreated in relation to the same quarter a year ago.

The contingent of persons employed in the private sector with a formal contract dropped in both periods of comparison. The comparison with the quarter of November 2015 to January 2016 (-1.8%) and with the same quarter last year, of February to April 2015 (-4.3%), pointed out to less about 1.5 million persons in this condition.

The category of  persons employed in the private sector without a formal contract remained stable against November 2015 to January 2016 and against the same period in the previous year.

The category of self-employed persons remained stable in relation to the quarter of November 2015 to January 2016, despite the statistically-insignificant drop of 118 thousand persons in this contingent. The comparison with the quarter of February to April 2015 posted an increase of 4.9%, which represented an addition of 1.1 million persons.

The contingent of employers remained stable in relation to the quarter of November 2015 to January 2016 and decreased 7.7% in relation to the same period a year ago.

The employment analysis according to the groups of activity in relation to the quarter of November 2015 to January 2016 pointed to a retraction in Overall industry (-3.9% or less 473 thousand persons), Construction (-5.1% or less 400 thousand persons), and Trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (-1.7% or less 302 thousand persons). No statistically-significant change was registered in the other groups.

The following groups recorded increases against the quarter of February to April 2015: Transportation, Storage and Mailing, 5.3% (227 thousand persons); Domestic services, 5.1% (306 thousand persons) and Public administration, defense, social security, education, human health and social services, 2.5%(384 thousand persons). The groups of Overall industry and Information, Communication and Financial, Real Estate, Professional and Administrative activities dropped 11.8% (-1.6 million persons) and 7.8% (-820 thousand persons), respectively. The other groups remained stable.

The average usual real earnings from all jobs of employed persons were estimated at R$1,962, maintaining the stability against the quarter between November 2015 and January 2016 (R$1,977) and retreating 3.3% over the same quarter a year ago (R$2,030).

Only the group of Housing and Food (-7.1%) posted a statistically-significant change in the average earnings in relation to the quarter ended in January 2016. Compared with the same quarter in the previous year, the groups of Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing and Aquiculture (-6.4%) and Trade, Repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (-4.6%) dropped. The other groups registered no significant changes in both comparisons.

Self employment (-2.7%) was the only employment type that reported a statistically-significant change in earnings in relation to the quarter of November 2015 to January 2016.

Compared with the quarter of February to April 2015, the categories of Employer and Self employment dropped their earnings: -5.5% and -5.1%, respectively.

The contingent of persons out of the workforce in the quarter of February to April 2016 was estimated at 63.9 million. This population remained stable compared with the quarter between November 2015 and January 2016 and with the same quarter last year.