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GDP falls (-1,7%) in relation to the second quarter of 2015

December 01, 2015 10h12 AM | Last Updated: January 22, 2018 03h50 PM

COMPARISON PERIOD

INDICATORS Q3 2015

GDP

AGRICULTURE

INDUSTRY

SERVICES

GFCF

CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLDS

CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT

Quarter/ previous  quarter (with seasonal adjustment)

-1,7

-2,4

-1,3

-1,0

-4,0

-1,5

0,3

Quarter /  same quarter a year ago  (without seasonal adjustment)

-4,5

-2,0

-6,7

-2,9

-15,0

-4,5

-0,4

Cumulative in four Qs / four previous Qs (without seasonal adjustment) 

-2,5

2,1

-4,7

-1,6

-11,2

-1,8

-0,4

Cumulative in the year  / same quarter a year ago (without seasonal adjustment)

-3,2

2,1

-5,6

-2,1

-12,7

-3,0

-0,4

Current values in the quarter (R$)

1.481 trillion

64.3 billion

295.2 billion

907.7 billion

268.4 billion

937.2 billion

289.1 billion

INVESTMENT RATE (GFCF/GDP) Q3 2015 = 18.1%

SAVINGS RATE (SAVING/GDP) Q3 2015 = 15.0%

In the seasonally adjusted series, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 1.7% in the third quarter of 2015 in relation to the previous quarter. In relation to the same period of 2014, the drop was of 4.5%. In the cumulative GDP in the last four quarters, the GDP shrank 2.5%. From January to September, the cumulative GDP registered a cumulative drop of 3.2%.

At  current values, the GDP reached R$ 1.481 trillion :
R$ 1.267 trillion relative to Value Added and R$ 214.2 billion to Product Taxes less Subsidies

The investment rate of the third quarter of 2015 was 18.1% of the GDP, below the rate recorded in the same period a year before (20.2%). The savings rate was 15.0% in the third quarter of 2015 (against 17.2% in the same period of 2014). The complete publication of the Quarterly Accounts can be accessed here.

GDP falls 1.7% compared with previous quarter

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the GDP declined 1.7% in relation to the second quarter of the year. Agriculture (-2.4%), Industry (-1.3%) and Services (-1.0%) retreated.

In Industry, the Manufacturing Industry recorded the highest drop: retraction of 3.1%. Civil construction (-0.5%) and Mining and quarrying (-0.2%) also registered negative results in the third quarter of the year. The activity of Electricity and gas, water, sewage and urban sanitation rose 1.1%.

In Services, Public education, health and administration (0.8%) and Financial intermediation and insurance (0.3%) recorded positive figures. The other activities retracted in relation to the immediately previous quarter: Trade (-2.4%), Other services
(-1.8%), Transportation, storage and mailing (-1.5%), Information services (-0.5%) and Real estate activities (-0.1%).

On the expenditure side, Gross Fixed Capital Formation recorded the ninth consecutive quarter of drop in this comparison basis: -4.0%. Household consumption expenditure (-1.5%) dropped for the third quarter in a row. Government consumption expenditure rose 0.3% over the previous quarter. In the foreign sector, Exports of Goods and Services dropped 1.8%, whereas Imports of Goods and Services declined 6.9% in relation to the second quarter of 2015.

GDP declines 4.5% over the same quarter last year

Compared with the same period a year ago, the GDP fell 4.5% in the third quarter of 2015, posting the highest drop since the beginning of the time series in 1996. The Value Added at basic prices decreased 3.8% and the Product Taxes less Subsidies, 8.3%.

Agriculture declined 2.0% in this comparison. This result could be explained by the negative performance of a number of products with a relevant harvest in the third quarter - coffee, sugarcane, oranges, cotton and wheat -, partially offset by productivity gains in the sugarcane, cotton and wheat crops. Livestock and Forestry activities also performed badly in the third quarter.

Industry dropped 6.7%. Manufacturing Industry declined 11.3%, influenced by the reduced production of machinery and equipment, cars, computer and electric-electronic equipment and apparatus, rubber and plastic products, fabricated metal products, textiles and pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

Civil construction also shrank (-6.3%). Mining and quarrying grew 4.2% over the third quarter of 2014, leveraged both by the increased extraction of petroleum and natural gas, and by the extraction of ferrous ores. The activity of Electricity and gas, water, sewage and urban sanitation expanded 1.5%.

The Services sector dropped 2.9% in this comparison, highlighted by Trade (-9.9%) and Transportation, storage and mailing (-7.7%).  The activities of Other services (-3.5%) and Information services (-1.5%) also declined. Public education, health and administration (0.9%), Financial intermediation and insurance (0.4%) and Real estate activities (0.3%) registered positive figures.

Consumption of households (-4.5%) recorded the third consecutive drop in this comparison, influenced by the deterioration of the indicators of inflation, interest, credit, employment and income in this period. Gross Fixed Capital Formation fell 15.0% in the third quarter of 2015, the highest drop in the time series started in 1996. This decline resulted mainly from the fall of imports and of the domestic production of capital goods, as well as from the negative performance of civil construction. Consumption of the Government negatively changed 0.4%.

In the foreign sector, Exports of Goods and Services expanded 1.1%, whereas Imports of Goods and Services fell 20.0%, both of them influenced by the currency depreciation of 56% registered in this period.

GDP records cumulative drop of 3.2% between January and September

The cumulative GDP in the year retreated 3.2% in relation to the same period in 2014.  It posted the highest cumulative drop in the January-September period since the beginning of the time series in 1996. On this basis for comparison, the highlight was the performance of Agriculture, which grew 2.1%. Industry and Services dropped 5.6% and 2.1%, respectively.

The drop of 12.7% in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation stood out from the perspective of demand Consumption of the Households (-3.0%) and Consumption of Government (-0.4%) also reported cumulative drops in the year. In the foreign sector, Imports of Goods and Services fell 12.4%, while Exports of Goods and Services rose 4.0%.

GDP also drops (-2.5%) in the cumulative index in four quarters

The cumulative GDP in the last four quarters shrank 2.5%. While Agriculture increased 2.1%, Industry (-4.7%) and Services (-1.6%) dropped.

The figures were negative in the internal demand: Gross Fixed Capital Formation
(-11.2%), Consumption of Households (-1.8%) and Consumption of Government (-0.4%). In the foreign sector, Exports of Goods and Services remained virtually stable (0.1%), whereas Imports of Goods and Services retracted 10.4%.

GDP adds up to R$ 1.481 trillion at current values

The Gross Domestic Product added up to R$ 1.481 trillion in the third quarter of 2015.

In the third quarter of 2015, the investment rate was 18.1% of the GDP, below that reported in the same period in 2014 (20.2%). The savings rate was 15.0% in the third quarter of 2015 (against 17.2% in the same period in 2014).

Revision of the time series of the Quarterly Accounts

Having completed the new time series of the System of National Accounts – Reference 2010, the Quarterly National Accounts returned to the comprehensive revisions in the third quarter of each year.

The results with reference to 2014 and 2015 were reviewed as shown below:

The details of the main points reviewed can be found in the complete publication of the Quarterly Accounts.