The first estimate of 2015 of the national harvest of cereal grains, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seeds, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) totaled 201.3 million metric tons, 4.4% higher than the harvest obtained in 2014 (192.8 million metric tons). The estimate of the area to be harvested is of 57.2 million hectares, presenting an increase of 1.6% compared with the harvested area in 2014 (56.3 million hectares). Together, rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products in this group, represented 91.6% of the production estimate and accounted for 85.4% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 3.5% for soybeans and reduction of 1.3% in the rice area and of 0.3 in the corn area. Concerning production, the increases were of 3.3% for rice, 10.5% for soybeans and decrease of 2.9% for corn. The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions
Participation in production
2015

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Participation in production
2015

Among the Major Regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West Region, 81.7 million metric tons; South, 75.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 19,7 million tonnes; Northeast, 19,2 million tonnes; and North, 5.5 million metric tons. Compared with the previous harvest, increases were recorded for the North, 0.2%, Northeast, 23.0%, Southeast, 9.7% and South, 6.3%. The Central-West Region presented a decrease of 1.5% in relation to the prior year's production. According to this estimate for 2015, Mato Grosso led the national production of cereal grains with a contribution of 23.1%, followed by Paraná (18.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.9%). These states together represented 57.2% of the total estimated production.

Estimate of January 2015 in relation to production of 2014

Among the 26 major products, 12 registered positive percent changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (18.8%), paddy rice (3.3%), oat grain (23.6%), potatoes - 1st crop (1.2%), coffee beans - arabica (0.8%), barley grain (23.1%), bean seed - 1st crop (15.2%), castor beans (141.0%), cassava (3.9%), corn grain 1st crop (3.8%), soybean grain (10.5%) and wheat grain (20.4%). With a negative change, there were 14 products: upland cottonseed (7.3%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (11.2%), potatoes - 2nd crop (7.6%), potatoes - 3rd crop (19.4%), cacao nuts (16.7%), coffee beans - canephora (11.3%), sugarcane (1.4%), onions (8.2%), bean seeds - 2nd crop (0.9%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (3.6%), oranges (1.1%), corn grain 2nd crop (7.1%), sorghum grain (7.4%) and triticale grain (10.5%).

The most significant production increment, in absolute numbers, surpassing 1.0 million metric tons, in the comparison with 2014 crops, occurred with soybeans (9,073,984 t). In this annual comparison, the biggest negative changes, in absolute numbers, were seen in sugarcane (-9,542,697 t) and corn (-2,267,458).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – With a production estimate of 8.4% of planted area, Brazilian production falls to 4.0 million metric tons, 7.3% lower in relation to the crop of 2014. The expected average yield presents a slight increase of 1.1%, becoming 3.773 kg/hectares. The two main producing states are still Mato Grosso (58.0%) and Bahia (28.2%) which account for 86.2% of national output. Mato Grosso's cotton first crop is almost all planted, being responsible for 28% of the total area of the state's cotton. Cotton second harvest is in the initial planting phase. The reduction of the total area planted in the state is of 7.7% and the main substitute for this crop is still soybeans, which, even though presenting a reduced value in the market, remain more profitable. In absolute terms, this reduction of planted area represents 49,047 hectares less. The production estimate for the state is 6.4% lower, totaling 2.3 million metric tons.

PEANUT 1st crop (in the shell) – Despite the fact that the planted area has decreased 0,3% in relation to 2014, the production estimate of the summer peanut registers growth of 18,8%, probably reaching 352,0 thousand metric tons. This output gain is attributed to the average yield, which has growth of 18,9%. São Paulo is the main producer and might account for 89,8% of the total harvested in 2015. It participates in the 1st crop with 91,2% of production and in the 2nd, with 65,1%.

PADDY RICE – January's estimate for the national harvest 2015 forecasts a planted area of 2,318,984 ha, 1.6% below the previous crop's area. The expected production of 12,546,122 metric tons and the expected average yield of 5,411 Kg/ha are bigger 3.3% and 4.6%, respectively, when compared to the previous crop's data. The South Region, at the moment, is responsible for 78.7% of the national output. Rio Grande do Sul, major producer, with 68.5% of the national output of the cereal, expects a harvest of 8,598,757 t, in an area to be harvested of 1,124,565 ha and an expected average yield of 7,646 kg/ha, 4,3%, 1,0% and 3,3% higher, respectively, when compared to the previous year crop.

COFFEE BEANS – The production estimate of coffee for 2015 is of 2.6 million metric tons or 43.9 million sacks (60 kg sack), a reduction of 2.7% in relation to 2014. The production of Coffea arabica should reach 1.9 million metric tons, or 32.2 million sacks, a growth of 0.8% in relation a 2014, whereas the production of Coffea canephora must reach 702 thousand metric tons, or 11.7 million sacks (60 kg sack), a reduction of 11.3% in relation to 2014. Last year, there was a drastic drop in the production of Coffea arabica due to the excessively dry and hot weather, mainly in the south of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. This year, the rainfalls are back in some producing areas, even though bellow the previous rainfall averages and quite below the culture necessities. As to Coffea canephora, the production drop in 2015 comes from Espírito Santo, the main producer of this kind of coffee, with a contribution of 69.5% to the total. This state expects a production of 488.2 thousand metric tons, 18.1% lower than the one obtained in the previous year, when it registered a record crop of 596.2 thousand metric tons.

BEAN SEEDS 1st crop – The first production estimate of beans in 2015, coupled with the three crops of the product, is of 3.4 million metric tons. That represents a rise of 5.7% in relation to the previous year. The increase in the production forecast is due to the positive change in the estimate of the average yield (1,084 Kg/ha), which was 6.2% higher than that of 2014 (1,021 Kg/ha). The planted area and the area to be harvested had a reduction of 6.2% and of 0.4%, respectively. The first crop of the product, estimated at 1,622,983 metric tons, participates with 47.7% of the total production of bean seeds. This production estimate was 15.2% higher than the 2014 production, following the rise in the estimate of the average yield, which was of 8.4% and against the decrease of 2.1% in the planted area. Paraná is the biggest national producer, with 20.5% of the total, even after having reduced its production forecast by 21.3%, followed, in this first estimate, by Ceará (14,9%) and Minas Gerais (12,2%). Minas Gerais got the third position as producer of the 1st crop because it reduced its planted area by 11.9%, whereas Ceará increased it by 21.9%.

CASSAVA (roots) – In 2015, the country should harvest a crop of 24 million metric tons of cassava, a rise of 3.9% in relation to 2014. Production should grow in the North (+2.4%), South (+4.7%) and Northeast (+10.6%) and decrease in the Southeast (-5.5%) and Central-West Region (-0.1%). In the states in the Northeast, the production estimate is growing, in relation to the previous year, 10.0% in Maranhão, 149.3% in Piauí, 40.6% in Ceará, 10.6% in Paraíba and 5.4% in Bahia and decreasing 44.3% in Rio Grande do Norte, 23.9% in Pernambuco and 3.1% in Sergipe, whereas in the North Region, Pará forecasts a production of 5.3 million metric tons, with an expected participation of 21.9% of the total production of the country this year, a growth of 7.8% in relation to 2014.

CORN (in grain) – The low prices practiced both by the domestic and foreign markets in 2014 and the lack of recovery prospects at the moment of decision making on the planting made the estimate of the planted area fall 2.7% for total corn. The unfavorable weather conditions, mainly in the Center-South areas, made the estimate of the national average yield fall 2.6% as well. The estimate of the production decrease in relation to the previous crop was of 2.9%, totaling 76,5 million metric tons. For corn 1st crop, Minas Gerais led the ranking with a forecast of 19% of the national production. The state has also reduced its estimate of planted area by 7.0%; however, against the odds in the Brazilian scenario, it expects an increase in the average yield by 7.5%. A 6.0 million metric tons production is expected, which corresponds to a rise of 4.9% in relation to the previous year. The second crop is expected to account for 58.5% of the total production, reassuring the importance of corn 2nd crop has gained in the context of crop production. But, even in the second crop, the expectations of some of the producers are not so optimistic, which makes the estimates of planted area go down 3.4%. The prospects of water deficit for the Central-West and South Regions, coupled with the reduction of planted area, made the production estimate fall 7.1%, taking production down to 44.7 million metric tons. Mato Grosso, major producer of corn 2nd crop, has faced in 2014 an average producer price below the national average and sometimes below production costs. As a result, there was a reduction in the planted area estimates by 124,651 hectares (-3.8%) and of production by 1.6 million metric tons (-8.8%).

SOYBEANS – Again this year, soybeans are a highlight as the main Brazilian crop among cereal grains, legumes and oilseeds. This year, an expansion of 10,5% of the production is expected, and because of it, soybeans would account for 47.4% of the total production of Brazilian cereal grains. As to the area, soybeans are responsible for 54.7%, after the area increment of 3.4% in relation to the last crop. Mato Grosso, the main producer, with 28.7% of the crops, expects a production of 27.4 million metric tons, 3.6% higher than the previous one. Paraná, the second main producer, with 17.6% of the production, after estimating an increase of 13.8% in production, expects to harvest 16.9 million metric tons in an area of 5.2 million hectares, 3.2% higher than in 2014. Rio Grande do Sul also expanded its area in production. The production estimate is of 14.7 million metric tons, which means the third place in the national ranking. The area increase for the current crop is of 4.3%, moving then to 5.2 million hectares. The expected average yield is of 2,817 Kg/hectares or 47.0 sacks of 60 Kg per hectares. This year the surprise is on behalf of Minas Gerais, which, for the first time, expects the soybean area to be larger than corn's, with 1,317,867 hectares of soybeans over 1,254,665 hectares of corn. The expected soybean production for the state is of 3.8 million metric tons.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

To address the needs of users of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (Conab) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October of 2007.