The fifth estimate for 2016 of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds added up to 195.9 million tonnes, 6.5% lower than that in 2015 (209.4 million tonnes). In absolute terms, it represented 13.5 million tonnes less than those obtained in the previous harvest. It dropped 4.6% compared with the April´s estimate, representing a production estimate 9.5 million tonnes lower. The estimate of the area to be harvested was of 57.7 million hectares, representing an increase of 0.2% against the harvested area in 2015 (57.6 million hectares), an absolute positive change of 105,923 hectares. It negatively changed 1.4% compared with the April´s information, involving a reduction of the expected harvest by 817,746 hectares. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which, altogether, represented 92.5% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.4% of the area to be harvested. The area for soybeans increased 2.7%, the area for corn reduced 0.4% and the area for rice reduced 9.1% in relation to the previous year. The estimates for production were negative: 0.4% for soybeans, 11.6% for rice and 14.1% for corn, when compared with 2015.

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In regional terms, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered the following distribution: Central-West, 81.7 million tonnes; South, 75.2 million tonnes; Southeast, 19.7 million tonnes; Northeast, 12.6 million tonnes and North, 6.7 million tonnes. Compared with the previous harvest, increases of 1.9% in the Southeast Region and decreases of 13.4% in the North Region, 24.3% in the Northeast Region, 9.1% in the Central-West Region and 0.9% in the South Region were recorded. In the 2016 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.4%, followed by Paraná (19.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.2%). These states together accounted for 59.6% of the national forecast.

May estimate in relation to April 2016

Compared with April, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production in May highlighted the changes in the following production estimates: wheat (13.2%), upland cotton (2.3%), coffea arabica (1.2%), soybeans (-1.7%), rice (-4.3%), corn - 1st crop (-6.6%), coffea canephora (-7.4%), corn - 2nd crop (-11.1%) and sorghum (-15.1%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate for May was 3.7 million tonnes, representing a growth of 2.3% in relation to April. The increase in the production was due to the rise of 2.0% in the expected planted area and area to be harvested. 1.0 million hectares were expected to be harvested in the whole country. GCEA/MT estimated a decrease of 2.8% for the average yield in Mato Grosso, which should hit 3,805 kg/ha. However, the expected rise of 3.5% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested lifted the estimated production by 0.5%. GCEA/BA increased the average yield to 3,191 kg/ha in Bahia, 9.7% higher than that reported in the previous month. The estimated production was also lifted by 9.7%.

PADDY RICE – The May estimate for the 2016 national harvest reported an area to be harvested of 1.9 million hectares, with an expected production of 10.9 million tonnes and an average yield of 5,593 kg/ha, below 1.5%, 4.3% and 2.8%, respectively, when compared with those in the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer in Brazil, contributing with 71.9% to the overall production, expected a production of 7.8 million tonnes, in an area to be harvested of 1.1 million hectares and average yield of 7,297 kg/ha, below 4.8%, 0.1% and 4,7%, respectively, when compared with those in the previous month. The drop in the production was due to harsh weather conditions during the development of the crop. The state of Santa Catarina, the second biggest producer, repeated the information from the previous month.

COFFEE BEANS – In May, the estimated production of coffee in Brazil added up to 2,973,711 tonnes, representing a drop of 0.6% over the previous month. The average yield registered a decrease of 0,5%. The production of coffea arabica was estimated at 2,388,911 tonnes or 39.8 million 60 kg sacks, and that of coffea canephora, at 584,800 tonnes or 9.7 million 60 kg sacks.

Favorable weather conditions prevailed in the main producing areas in Minas Gerais, the main producer of coffea arabica and responsible for 68.7% of the total to be harvested in 2016.

The estimated production of coffea canephora was once again reduced in Espírito Santo, the state responsible for 64.4% of the national production. Rainfall in the main producer municipalities affected Espírito Santo for the second year in a row, reflecting in the reduction of the springs used for irrigation. A number of municipalities even reported shortage of water to supply urban areas.

CORN GRAIN – The weather conditions that affected the first crop of corn persisted during the second crop, bringing negative consequences to the overall production. 73.5 million tonnes of corn were estimated for May. This production was 9.6% below that estimated in April. The drop in the estimated average yield was the main factor responsible for such reduction, since 4,755 kg/ha were now expected against 5,088 kg/ha in the previous survey, representing a drop of 6.5%.

25.9 million tonnes were expected for the first crop of corn, representing a decrease of 6.6% over April. The harvested area was also reduced by 3.5% and estimated at 5.3 million hectares. The average yield changed from 5,048 kg/ha in April to 4,885 kg/ha in May. Responsible for 14.8% of the overall production in the first crop, the Northeast Region reflected the consequences of droughts. The estimated production for this region was 3.8 million tonnes of corn, 31.3% less than that estimated in April. As the main producer of corn in the first crop in the Northeast Region, CGEA estimated a drop of 27.5% in the production in Bahia. The estimated planted area and average yield also reduced by 12.4% and 17.2%, respectively. In Piauí, the decline in the production was of 58.4% over the previous month. An extremely dry weather was responsible for the reduction in the average yield by 50,7%.

The estimated production of corn - 2nd crop was reduced by 11.1%. Extensive droughts affecting all the Brazilian territory, especially the production areas of the Cerrado, were reflected in this information. The production of corn - 2nd crop was estimated at 47.6 million tonnes. The average yield was estimated at 4,686 kg/ha, 8.3% lower than the estimate of April. Mato Grosso, Paraná and Goiás were the states that mostly impacted the national data, all of them showing a decrease in their local estimates.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The estimated production was not a record for the first time this year, changing to a lower figure than in 2015. The national production was estimated at 96.8 million tonnes, representing a reduction of 1.7% when compared with the previous month. Due to extensive droughts faced by a number of Brazilian states, the reduction of 1.6% in the average yield was the main reason for this retreat. GCEA/MT reported an estimated production of 27.1 million tonnes, representing a decline of 1.7% over the April estimate. Having changed to 2,984 kg/ha, the average yield was reduced by 1,5%. GCEA/RS reported an estimated production of 16.3 million tonnes for Rio Grande do Sul, representing a rise of 2.0% when compared with the estimate in the previous month. The yield changed from 2,921 kg/ha to 2,985 kg/ha, a rise of 2,2%.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The estimated production of sorghum in May was of 1.6 million tonnes, representing a drop of 15.1% over the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested dropped 2.9% and 5.8%, respectively. The average yield also fell 9.8%. The estimated production dropped 14.7% in Goiás – main producer and responsible for 46.4% of the national harvest in 2016 –, mainly reflecting the reduction of 11.2% in the average yield. The estimated area to be harvested retreated 4.0%. The area to be harvested in Minas Gerais – second biggest producer in Brazil and responsible for 23.7% of the estimated national production – dropped 4.9% and the average yield, 11.2%. According to GCEA/MG, the production in Minas Gerais should fall 15.6% over the previous month. In Mato Grosso, GCEA/MT reported reductions of 30.1% in the estimated production, 18.2% in the area to be harvested and 14.5% in the average yield in relation to the previous month.

WINTER CEREALS – Due to the increase of 19.0% in the average yield, the estimated production of wheat in May rose 13.2% over the previous month. However, the planted area and the area to be harvested dropped 5.2% and 4.9%, respectively. The expected production for 2016 should reach 6.4 million tonnes.

The estimated production of oat in 2016 rose 32.3% against the previous month. The planted area should increase 6.8%, the area to be harvested, 7.1% and the average yield, 23.5%. The biggest changes were posted in Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer in Brazil. According to GCEA/RS, the producers tended to invest more in the oat crops as a result of the weather problems that wheat had been facing in this state.

May 2016 estimate in relation to the production obtained in 2015

Among the 26 major products, 11 registered a positive percentage change in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (20.3%), oat grain (34.6%), potatoes - 1st crop (5.2%), potatoes - 2nd crop (4.3%), cacao nuts (3.2%), coffee beans - arabica (19.8%), onions (0.1%), barley grain (43.7%), castor beans (12.6%), wheat grain (18.6%) and triticale grain (11.8%). Fifteen products recorded a negative change: upland cottonseed (9.4%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (0.6%), paddy rice (11.6%), potatoes - 3rd crop (25.1%), coffee beans - canephora (10.7%), sugarcane (2.6%), bean seed - 1st crop (2.2%), bean seed - 2nd crop (7.3%), bean seed - 3rd crop (12.1%), oranges (2.7%), cassava (1.6%), corn grain 1st crop (11.7%), corn grain 2nd crop (15.4%), soybean grain (0.4%) and sorghum grain (23.2%).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.