Monthly Survey of Trade
Retail sales level off in November after series of increases
January 15, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 15, 2021 02h10 PM
After six consecutive months of increase with cumulative gains of 32.2%,volume of sales remained stable from October and November 202, with a change of -0.1%. Against the same period a year ago, there was deceleration, with an increase of 3.4% in November 2020, below the 8.4% in October. Despite the deceleratiom, the sector is 7.3% above the pre-pandemic level.
Data comes from the Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC), released today (15), by the IBGE. Decrease in food consumption was responsible for interrupting a sequence of increases for this sector.
Considering the eight activities surveyed, four recorded increases against the previous month, whereas Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, which account for about 45% of the overall index, recorded decrease. According to the survey manager, Cristiano Santos, drops of 2.2% from October and of 1.7% from November 2019 in volume of sales are a result of inflation.
“For example, by considering revenue for companies in tis segment, hypermarkets, there was a 0.8% drop. And the difference between revenue and volume of sales shows an increase in costs. Also, consumers usually buy less when their purchasing power decreases, and choose to reduce the acquisition of non-essential products and to buy cheaper brands,” Mr. Santos says.
Activities in Other personal and domestic articles, mainly department stores, and Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries were the only ones ro record increse from the previous month and from November 2019.
“Department stores are among the commercial establishments facing biggest impacts from the social distancing measures adopted in the beginning of the pandemic, since consumption is influnced by the access to shelves at physical shops. So, as establishments were reopened, this activity recorded a significant increase in November, 1.4% from October and 16.2% from the same period in 2019. ”
The researcher also highlights the influence of Black Friday in the period.
“ Black Friday has an impact mainly on the activities of Other personal and domestic articles, Furniture and household appliances, and Office, computer and communication material and equipment. In November, these first two activities had a better performance than in the previous year, differently from office and computer equipment, which were 9.9% below the result in the same period a year ago. Figures also reflect the fact that people have spent more time at home.”
In terms of cumulative figures in 2020, the activities accouting for highest indexes in retail trade are Furniture and household appliances (11.6%) and Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries (7.7%). The overall index recorded a decrease of 1.2% in the period.
Extended retail trade, which includes, besides the eight activities of trade, Vehicles, motorcycle, parts and pieces and Construction material, remained on an upward trend and recorded its seventh increase in volume of sales, 0.6% in November, against the previous month. Against November 2019, the sector had its fifth poitive rate, with an increase of 4.1%, after a 6.1% rise in October. However, extended retail was, in November, 5.2% above the February level.
In the year, vehicle sales had a cumulative decrease of 15.1%, but construction material rose 10.1%.
“Construction material recovered quite fast after commercial establishments were closed due to the pandemic, mainly from June onwards. Car industry has been more detailed, though, since consumers postponed vehicle purchases as they had been mostly at home. We should also consider seasonal effects, as professional drivers usually change their cars by the end of the year. Another contribution comes from the incresed fleets of rental cars, which had an increase in demand. So, Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces increased by 3.5% in November, but still remains 1.9% below the February result,” Mr. Santos adds.
