The national harvest of grains in 2020 is expected to hit the record of 240,913,898 metric tons, 33,6 thousand metric tons above the expected result for 2019. With this prospect, the harvests of 2019 and 2020 are expected to be the highest in the time series initiated in 1975, being ahead of the current record of 2017, 238.4 million metric tons. These data come from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (10) by the IBGE.

The estimates point to an increase of 6.7% in the production of soybeans and a decrease of 7.5% in the production of milk. Beans - 1st crop is also expected to have a smaller production (-0.3%). The estimates indicate better perspectives for cotton (2.0%) and rice (1.0%).

The IBGE researcher, Carlos Barradas, estimates a production of 92.7 million metric tons for the coming year, with a decrease of 7.5% against the 2019 harvest, meaning a decrease by 7.5 million metric tons. “A trend to bigger output volume for corn - 2nd crop is maintained; the harvest must account for  72.3% of the national output for 2020, against 27.7% of participation of corn - 1st crop," Mr. Barradas says.

The output of soybeans is expected to increase by 6.7% and to reach 120.8 million metric tons in 2020. Considering the main producers, Mato Grosso estimates a harvest of 33 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.2% in relation to 2019. Paraná, the second main producer, is expected to have an output of 19.8 million metric tons, with an increase of 22.5%, recovering from a 2019 in which its harvest was affected by scarcity of rain and an excess of heat during the crop cycle. 

2019 harvest expected to increase by 6.4%

The national harvest is expected to reach 240,880,344 metric tons in 2019, being above the record figure of 2017, an increase by 2.4 million metric tons. The result represents an increase of 6.4% in relation to the output of 2018 (226.5 million metric tons), and an increase of 60.6 thousand metric tons against figures of October last year. 

The increase was pushed by corn, which is expected to have a record output of 100.2 million metric tons in 2019 (25.9 million metric tons of 1st corn crop and 74.3 million metric tons of second corn crop), which represents an increase of 23.2% against 2018. According to Barradas, the current scenario stimulated the production of corn 2nd harvest. “Climate conditions also contributed positively to that result,” he added.

Cotton must also hit a record in the IBGE time series. This year's harvest is expected to be 6.9 million metric tons, an increase of 39.8% against the previous year. The increase in planting of that grain results from the change in prices for better, as explained by Carlos Barradas. 

The output of soybeans and rice has decreased, nevertheless. The estimate points to a harvest of 113.2 million metric tons in 2019, which means a decrease by 4% against the result of last year. Rice faced output drop following the reduction of planted area (by 9.5%0 and of the area to be harvested (by 12). The soybean output is expected to be 10.3 million metric tons, having fallen by 12% against the figure of last year. 

In 2019, the area to be harvested must be 63.2 million hectares, with an increase of 3.7% against the area harvested in 2018, an increase by 2.2 million hectares. Against October this year, the estimated area to be harvested increased by 71.3 thousand hectares (0.1%). The previous output record had been registered in 2017, when a total 238.4 million metric tons were produced. 

Keywords: Agricultura, Safra, Estimativa, Produção, Arroz, Milho, Soja, Algodão, Feijão.