Agriculture
Grain harvest estimate for 2019 increases and hits 230.1 million metric tons
April 11, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: April 11, 2019 01h01 PM
The third estimate for the harvest of grains in 2019 points to an output of 230.1 million metric tons, 1.6% more than last year (3.6 million metric tons more) and 0.6% above the amount estimated in February (1.3 million metric tons more). Harvested area is expected to increase by 2.3% against 2018, and amount to 62.3 million hectares. These data come from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today by the IBGE.
Harvest in 2019 is expected to be the second biggest in the history of the survey, only after that of 2017 (238.3 million metric tons). That better estimate results from some optimism in relation to the second harvest of corn and cotton, which is expected to reach a record figure this year, of 6.2 million metric tons.
“Soybean has faced decrease due to the harsh climate conditions of last year, but the second crop of corn has grown 6.7% over that of 2018, once those have been more beneficial. Since the rain period started before expected, the agricultural year allowed soybeans to be planted sooner and opened a planting window for 2nd-crop corn”, says Carlos Antônio Barradas, manager of LSPA.
According to Barradas, the good performance of cotton is related to the price of the product, now high on the market. “Output increased 12.2% in relation to the previous month. The estimate is the record in the IBGE series for that product. Producers made money from the good price of cotton, and that fostered new investments this year”.
Despite its high level this year, harvest may face new increases if climate helps in coming months. “From now on, the outcome of harvest will depend on the weather, in the case of corn - 2nd crop and of winter crops, such as wheat. If there is more rain, we might have a bigger output”, Mr. Barradas adds.
Rice (10.5 million metric tons), corn (25.7 million metric tons in the first harvest and 65.4 million metric tons in the second) and soybeans (112.5 million metric tons) are the three main items in the Brazilian output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, with 93.1% of the expected harvest for 2019 and 87.2% of the area to be harvested.
Among the major regions, the Central West, with 44.4%, is expected to account for most of the contribution to the output of grain this year, followed by the South, 33.5%; Southeast, 9.5%; Northeast, 8.2%; and North, 3.9%. Mato Grosso leads the states, being expected to account for 27% of the output.
