IPCA-15
Food, electricity and fuel impact inflation forecast in June
June 21, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 21, 2018 04h28 PM
The inflation forecast (IPCA-15) in June, released today by the IBGE, reached 1.11%, the highest change for the month since 1995, when the index registered 2.35%. The groups Food and beverages (1.57%), Housing (1.74%) and Transportation (1.95%) were the main influences on the result. The cumulative index in the year reached 2.35% and the cumulative index in the 12 months was 3.68%.
The survey showed a strong increase in potatoes (45.12%), and also significant increases in onions (19.95%), tomatoes (14.15%), long-life milk (5.59%), meat (2.35%) and fruits (2.03%). Food away from home (0.29%) also showed an acceleration in the price level compared to the 0.28% drop in May.
In the Housing group, another item that defined the behavior of the inflation projection was electricity (5.44%), which resulted from the red flag tariff - level 2, in effect since June 1, which added the charge of R$0.05 to every kwh consumed. In addition, there was tariff increase in Belo Horizonte, Recife, Salvador, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre.
In turn, Fuels, in the Transportation group, rose 5.94% in June, driven by gasoline (6.98%). The item accounted for the highest individual impact on the index (0.31 pp), which represented 28% of the IPCA-15 of June. Among the nine IPCA-15 groups, all were up in June, except for Wearing apparel, which fell 0.08%.
Highs in prices were generalized among the areas
The acceleration of prices from May to June occurred in all the 11 areas surveyed, with the Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte showing the highest result (1.37%), influenced by gasoline (6.77%) and electricity (11.14%). The Metropolitan Areas of Belém (0.76%) and Recife (0.95%) registered below-average rates for the country.
For the calculation of the IPCA-15, prices were collected in the period from May 16 to June 13, 2018 (reference) and compared with those in force from April 14 to May 15, 2018 (base). The indicator refers to families with income from 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia.
