In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output positively changed 0.1% in February 2017 against the immediately previous month, after registering a drop of 0.2% in January. In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the overall industry dropped 0.8% in February 2017 compared with the same month a year ago, after advancing 1.4% last January, when it interrupted 34 consecutive months of negative figures in this type of comparison. As a result, the industrial sector recorded a cumulative change of 0.3% in the first two months of 2017. Having retreated 4.8% in February 2017, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – maintained the pace of decline started in June 2016 (-9.7%). The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM-PF) can be accessed here.

Indicators of Industrial Output by Major Economic Category
Brazil - February 2017

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

13 of 24 sectors grow between January and February

The slight expansion of 0.1% in the industrial activity between January and February 2017 showed positive figures in three out of the four major economic categories and in 13 out of the 24 sectors surveyed. Among thesectors, the major positive impacts were reported by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (6.1%) and machinery and equipment (9.8%), both of them reversing the losses reported in the previous month: -8.4% and -6.1%. Other positive highlights came from coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.0%), fabricated metal products (4.0%), electrical machinery and apparatus (4.8%) and manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (3.4%). Among the 11 sectors that reduced their production in February, the most important performance for the overall average was registered by food products (-2.7%), which interrupted two consecutive months of expansion, a period in which it recorded a cumulative gain of 1.8%. Other relevant negative contributions came from toiletries, soaps, cleaning  and personal hygiene products (-3.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-5.6%), basic metals (-1.9%) and mining and quarrying industries (-0.5%). It is worth highlighting that these activities posted positive rates in January 2017: 0.2%, 3.2%, 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively.

Among the major economic categories, still comparing with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods (7.1%) and capital goods (6.5%) registered the steepest positive figures in February 2017, the former offsetting the retreat of 4.8% reported last January and the latter recovering part of the loss of 7.0% registered in December 2016 and January 2017. The segment of intermediate goods (0.5%) also advanced in February and recorded the fourth positive rate in a row, period in which it posted a cumulative expansion of 3.6%. On the other hand, the sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.6%) registered the only negative rate in February 2017 and returned part of the cumulative gain of 7.2% in December 2016 and January 2017.

Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry increased 0.8% in the quarter ended in February 2017 over the previous month, after also advancing in January 2017 (0.9%) and December last year (0.6%), when it interrupted the downward trend started in July 2016. Among the major economic categories, still considering the marginal movement of this index, durable consumer goods (2.4%) recorded the highest advance in February and maintained the series of positive figures started in November 2016. The sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.8%) and intermediate goods (0.9%) also posted positive rates in February 2017, both of them maintaining the upward trend started in November last year. Conversely, the segment of capital goods (-0.4%) registered the only drop in February and maintained the negative behavior since September 2016.

Industry declines 0.8% in relation to February 2016

Compared with February 2016, the industrial sector reduced 0.8% in February 2017, recording negative figures in two out of the four major economic categories, 17 out of the 26 sectors, 46 out of the 79 groups and 53.2% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth highlighting that February 2017 (18 days) had one business day less than the same month a year ago (19).  Among the activities, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-10.7%) and food products (-6.0%) exerted the biggest negative influences on the industry average, pressed, at a large extent, by items diesel fuel, naphtha for the petrochemical industry and motor gasoline, in the former; and crystallized and refined sugar, concentrated orange juice, frozen, fresh and cooled beef and rations, in the latter. Other relevant negative contributions to the overall industry came from other chemicals (-3.6%), other transportation equipment (-11.4%), non-metallic mineral products (-4.3%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-16.3%), fabricated metal products (-4.1%), toiletries, soaps, cleaning and personal hygiene products (-8.0%), pulp, paper and paper products (-3.4%) and electrical machinery and apparatus  (-4.7%).

Among the nine activities that increased their output, still comparing with February 2016, the major influence on the overall industry was registered by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (18.7%), leveraged, at a great extent, by items cars, vehicles for transportation of goods and car pieces. It is also worth highlighting the positive figures coming from mining and quarrying industries (4.7%), machinery and equipment (11.0%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (13.1%) and manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (6.4%), mainly influenced by the bigger production of iron ores, crude petroleum oil and natural gas, in the first sector; ball bearings, needles, cylinders and rollers, harvesters and their parts and pieces, farm tractors, wheel loaders, wall and window air conditioners (including split-system types), motor graders, air conditioner for vehicles and water-jet cleaning and polishing machines, in the second; TV sets, smart cards, printed circuit boards for computers, mobile telephones and antennas, in the third; and knitted apparel for women, knitted dresses, breeches, bib and brace overalls, shorts and alike, knitted shirts and undershirts, bras and pants, in the last sector.

Still comparing with the same month in the previous year, intermediate goods (-2.5%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-2.5%) recorded the negative figures in February 2017 among the major economic categories and posted sharper drops than the national average (-0.8%). Having expanded 19.8%, the segment of durable consumer goods registered the steepest advance this month, whereas the sector producing capital goods (2.9%) recorded a more moderate growth.

The segment of intermediate goods retreated 2.5% in the monthly index of February 2017, after advancing 0.8% last January, when it interrupted 33 consecutive months of negative rates in this type of comparison. The February result was mainly explained by the retreats in the products associated with the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-11.8%), food products (-7.8%), other chemicals (-3.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-4.5%), pulp, paper and paper products (-5.2%), fabricated metal products (-4.5%) and basic metals (-1.9%), whereas the positive pressures were recorded by mining and quarrying industries (4.7%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (12.3%), machinery and equipment (2.4%), rubber and plastic products (0.8%) and textiles (1.6%). Still in this economic category, it is worth mentioning the negative figures posted by the groups of inputs for civil construction (-8.7%), which reported the 36th drop in a row, and of packaging (-1.7%), which declined once again after interrupting, in January 2017 (0.9%), four consecutive months of negative rates in the comparison with the same month last year.

Having retreated 2.5% in February 2017, the sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods registered once again a negative result, after interrupting, last January (1.5%), eight months of negative rates in a row. The performance in February was explained, at a large extent, by the drop in the group of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-3.9%), mainly pressed by the smaller production of concentrated orange juice, frozen, fresh and cooled beef, soft drinks, refined sugar from sugarcane, rice, ice creams, popsicles, cheese, tomato pulp and purée, and milk drinks. The sub-sectors of fuels (-7.1%) and non-durable (-1.8%) also registered negative figure this month, influenced, at a large extent, by items motor gasoline and ethyl alcohol, in the former; and medicines, softeners and soaps or powder and liquid detergents, in the latter. On the other hand, the group of semi-durables (3.5%) recorded the only positive figure in this category, leveraged, above all, by the bigger production of mounted synthetic sneakers, knitted apparel for women, compact disks (CDs), mobile telephones, plastic-molded footwear for women, shirts, undershirts, blouses and alike for professional use, knitted dresses, breeches, bib and brace overalls, shorts and alike for men and plastic swimming pools.

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, the segment of durable consumer goods rose 19.8% in February 2017, recording the fourth consecutive positive figure in this type of comparison and the most intense since February 2014 (23.3%). In February, this sector was particularly leveraged by the advances in car production (34.7%), brown goods (28.4%) and white goods (15.5%). Conversely, motorcycles (-4.4%) and the groups of furniture (-11.9%) and other household appliances (-1.8%) posted the most important negative impacts.

Having increased 2.9% in February 2017, the production of capital goods posted the fourth consecutive positive rate compared with the same month last year, though slighter than that reported last January (4.5%). In this month´s index, this segment was influenced, at a large extent, by the advances reported in the groups of capital goods for agriculture (47.7%) and for construction (44.2%). On the other hand, the major negative impact was registered by the group of capital goods for transportation equipment (-3.5%), pressed, at a large extent, by the drop in the production of trucks and airplanes. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for electricity (-14.2%), for industrial purposes (-1.7%) and for mixed use (-4.1%).

 Industry changes 0.3% in the year

Compared with the same period in the previous year, the cumulative index for the January-February 2017 period increased 0.3%, registering positive figures in two out of the four major economic categories, 14 out of the 26 sectors, 40 out of the 79 groups and 51.2% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, mining and quarrying industries (8.7%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (12.0%) exerted the biggest positive influences on the industry average, leveraged, at a great extent, by items iron ores, crude petroleum oil and natural gas, in the former; and cars, vehicles for transportation of goods, tractor trucks and car pieces, in the latter. Other relevant positive contributions to the national overall came from computer equipment, electronic and optical products (18.5%), wearing apparel and accessories (8.4%) and machinery and equipment (3.3%).

Among the major economic categories, the profile of the results of the first two months of 2017 was more dynamic for durable consumer goods (11.6%) and capital goods (3.7%), leveraged, at a great extent, by the increased manufacture of cars (19.8%) and household appliances (17.4%), in the former; and of capital goods for agriculture (26.1%) and for construction (39.5%), in the latter. It is worth highlighting the low comparison basis in the two groups, since these segments retreated 29.0% and 30.4% in the first two months of 2016, respectively. Conversely, the sectors producing intermediate goods (-0.8%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5%) recorded negative rates in the cumulative index in the first two months of 2017.