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In January, industry advances in seven of the 15 places surveyed

March 10, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: March 12, 2021 04h51 PM

With the 0.4% increase in the national industry, from December 2020 to January 2021, in the seasonally adjusted series, seven of the 15 places surveyed by the IBGE showed positive rates. The sharpest expansions were in Pará (4.4%), Pernambuco (3.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (2.9%), while the most intense decreases were in Espírito Santo (-13.4%) and Amazonas (-11.8%). In relation to the quarterly moving average, nine of the fifteen places surveyed showed positive rates in the quarter ended in January, with a highlight to Rio Grande do Sul (2.5%), Santa Catarina (2.0%), Paraná (1.8% ), Ceará (1.7%) and São Paulo (1.2%. In the cumulative result for the last 12 months, thirteen of the fifteen surveyed places reported negative rates in January 2021.

Short-Term Indicators of Industry - Regional Results - Jan 2021
Places  Change (%)
January 2021/December 2020* January 2021/January 2020 Cumulative January-January Cumulative in the last 12 months
Amazonas -11.8 -9.8 -9.8 -6.7
Pará 4.4 13.3 13.3 1.5
Northeast Region -2.1 -3.3 -3.3 -3.8
Ceará -1.1 9.6 9.6 -5.7
Pernambuco 3.6 7.0 7.0 3.9
Bahia -3.2 -13.9 -13.9 -7.1
Minas Gerais -0.5 9.8 9.8 -1.3
Espírito Santo -13.4 -11.5 -11.5 -13.2
Rio de Janeiro 2.9 -5.2 -5.2 -1.1
São Paulo 1.1 5.6 5.6 -5.8
Paraná 1.5 11.5 11.5 -2.0
Santa Catarina 1.0 10.1 10.1 -3.7
Rio Grande do Sul 1.9 9.8 9.8 -4.6
Mato Grosso -3.2 -13.9 -13.9 -5.8
Goiás -0.5 -9.3 -9.3 -0.4
Brazil 0.4 2.0 2.0 -4.3
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria* Série com Ajuste Sazonal

In the 0.4% growth of the national industrial production, in the seasonally-adjusted series, seven out of the fifteen places surveyed increased from December 2020 to January 2021. Pará (4.4%), Pernambuco (3.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (2.9%) recorded the sharpest advances. Pará registered the second month in a row with growth and accumulated a gain of 9.7% in the period. Pernambuco offset the losses recorded in December (-3.0%) and November 2020 (-0.6%). And Rio de Janeiro accrued an expansion of 3.2% in three consecutive months of positive results. Rio de Grande do Sul (1.9%), Paraná (1.5%), São Paulo (1.1%) and Santa Catarina (1.0%) close the set of places with production growth in January 2021.

On the other hand, Espírito Santo (-13.4%) and Amazonas (-11.8%) registered the sharpest decreases this month, with the former eliminating the 7.3% expansion recorded last December and the latter accumulating a 16.3% reduction in two consecutive months of negative rates. The other decreases were in Bahia (-3.2%), Mato Grosso (-3.2%), Northeast Region (-2.1%), Ceará (-1.1%), Minas Gerais (-0.5%) and Goiás (-0.5%).

The quarterly moving average for the industry rose 0.8% in the quarter ended in January 2021 over the previous month's level, after also advancing in December (1.0%), November (1.6%), October (2.4%), September (4.8%), August (7.0%) and July (9.0%) 2020, when it interrupted the predominantly downward trend started in November 2019.   There were positive rates in 15 places surveyed, with a highlight to the sharpest advances of Rio Grande do Sul (2.5%), Santa Catarina (2.0%), Paraná (1.8%), Ceará (1.7%) and São Paulo (1.2%).

On the other hand, Amazonas (-4.3%), Mato Grosso (-2.8%) and Espírito Santo (-2.5%) had the main decreases in January 2021.

In the comparison with January 2020, the national industry grew 2.0% in January 2021, with eight of the fifteen places indicating positive results. It is worth mentioning that January 2021 (20 days) had two less workdays than the same month a year ago (22).

Pará (13.3%), Paraná (11.5%) and Santa Catarina (10.1%) recorded two-digit expansions. Pará was mainly driven by the advances in the sectors of mining and quarrying industries; Paraná, by the performance of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, machinery and equipment, electrical machinery, apparatus and material and wood products and Santa Catarina, by the manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories, machinery and equipment, basic metals and electrical machinery and apparatus.

Minas Gerais (9.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.8%) Ceará (9.6%), Pernambuco (7.0%) and São Paulo (5.6%) close the set of places with production expansion in January 2021.

On the other hand, Bahia (-13.9%), Mato Grosso (-13.9%) and Espírito Santo (-11.5%) had the sharpest decreases in the month. Bahia was driven by the negative behavior of the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and coke, petroleum products and biofuels. Mato Grosso was affected by the negative performance of food products, wood products and coke, petroleum products and biofuels. And Espírito Santo due to the drop in the activities of basic metals, mining and quarrying and foods products.

Amazonas (-9.8%), Goiás (-9.3%), Rio de Janeiro (-5.2%) and Northeast Region (-3.3%) recorded the other negative results of the January 2021.

Comparing the last quarter of 2020 and January 2021, both against the same periods in the previous year, ten of the 15 places surveyed posted loss of dynamism, following the movement of the national index,which fell from 3.4% to 2.0%. Amazonas (8.3% to -9.8%), Bahia (-2.0% to -13.9%), Espírito Santo (-2.3% to -11.5%), Northeast Region (3.3% to -3.3%), Mato Grosso (-10.6% to -13.9%) and Goiás  (-6.2% to -9.3%) had the sharpest reductions, whereas Pará (1.0% to 13.3%) and Minas Gerais (7.6% to 9.8%) recorded the main gains against the two periods.

The cumulative index in the last 12 months decreased 4.3% in January 2021, but kept decelerating over the previous months. In 13 of the 15 surveyed places there were negative rates in January 2021, but in nine the drops were less intense, over December 2020, with a highlight to Minas Gerais (from -3.2% to -1.3%), Pará (from -0.1% to 1.5%), Santa Catarina (from -4.5% to -3.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -5.4% to -4.6%), Espírito Santo (from -13.9% to -13.2%) and Paraná (from -2.6% to -2.0%).

Bahia (from -5.3% to -7.1%), Amazonas (from -5.5% to -6.7%), Rio de Janeiro (from 0.2% to -1.1%) and Northeast Region (from -3.0% to -3.8%) recorded the most intense losses between the two periods.