The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) changed by 0.71% in January, being 0.34 percentage points (p.p.) below the December rate (1.05%). That is the highest result for a month of January since 2016, when the index was 0.92%. In 12 months, IPCA-15 had a cumulative increase of 4.34%, above the 3.91% registered in the previous 12 months. In January 2019, the rate was 0.30%.

Among the nine groups of products and services surveyed, seven recorded increase from December to January. Food and beverages recorded the biggest change (1.83%) and the main impact (0.45 p.p.),  although there was deceleration in relation to the result in the previous month (2.59%).  The second main contribution (0.17 p.p.)  came from Transportation (0.92%), with a change that was close to the December result. (0.90%). In terms of decreases, the highlight was Housing(-0.14%), with an impact of -0.02 p.p. on the January index. The other groups stood between the decrease of 0.01% in Household articles and the increase of 0.47% in Personal expenses.

The deceleration of the group Food and beverages (1.83%) is a result of the performance of food at home (2.30%), whose hike was below that of the IPCA-15 in December (3.62%).  Beef contributed to that increase, ranging from an increase of 17.71% in the previous month to 4.83% in January.  Also, the item was responsible for the main individual contribution to the January index, with 0.15 p.p. Items such as fruit (3.98%) and whole chicken (4.96%) accelerated in comparison with the December figures (1.67% and 2.43%, respectively).  In terms of decreases, the highlight was onion, with a change of -5.43% and an impact of -0.01% on the monthly result.

Food away from home increased by 0.99%, a result above that of December (0.79%), mainly due to the hikes registered in snacks (1.30%) and meals (1.10%).

In the group of Transportation (0.92%), gasoline, which had increased 1.49% in December recorded an increase of 2.64% and accounted for the second main individual impact on the monthly index, 0.11 p.p. All the areas surveyed recorded  hike in gasoline prices, which ranged from 0.58% in Belém to 4.% in Fortaleza.  Besides, the prices of ethanol and diesel also rose (hikes of 4.98% and 1.47%, respectively).

Also in terms of Transportation, the hike of urban buses (0.30%) was pushed by price adjustment of fares by 10.00% in Brasília (0.60%), in effect since January 13, and 2.32% in São Paulo, in effect since January 1st.  The same percentage of adjustment (2.32%) was registered, on the same date, in train fares (0.93%) and subway fares (0.93%) in São Paulo.  As a result, overall results for the two items were 0.61% and 0.69%, respectively. The change in the item cabs (0.28%), on the other hand, resulted from the average adjustment of fares in Rio de Janeiro (0.85%), in effect since January 2. The item interstate bus rose 14.00%, on average, due to the rises in Salvador (2.88%), starting on December 5th. 

The biggest change (-6.45%) and the main negative impact (-0.03 p.p.)  in the group of Transportation came from airfares, the prices of which had risen 15.63% in December's IPCA-15.

In Housing (-0.14%), the deflation observed in the month was influenced by the cost of electricity (-2.11%), which accounted for the main individual negative impact (-0.08%) on the IPCA-15.  All the areas surveyed recorded negative changes, ranging from -0.61% in São Paulo to -4.46% in Fortaleza, where there was reduction of the PIS/COFINS share.  In January, the yellow tariff flag was maintained, leading to an additional charge of R$ 1,343 per each kwh per hour consumed.

Also in Housing, the result of piped gas (0.49%) is a consequence of the adjustment of 2.45% in the fares in Rio de Janeiro (1.01%), in force since January 1st. The rise in the water and sewage fees (0.25%) was due to the adjustment of 18.00% of fares in Belém (16.98%), in force since December 14.  Bottled gas recorded a change of 0.21%, after a price adjustment announced by Petrobras for the 13-kg cylinder in refineries from December 27 onwards.

Rise is registered in all the areas surveyed

All the areas surveyed rose between November and December. The highest index was registered in the metropolitan area of Belém (1.13%), influenced by the rises in whole chicken (9.12%). The lowest index was recorded in Brasília (0.29%) due to the fall of airfare prices (-7.69%).

In order to measure IPCA-15, prices collected from December 12, 2019 to January 14, 2020 (reference) were compared with the ones in effect from November 12 to December 11, 2019 (base). The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.