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Industry drops in seven of the 15 areas surveyed

November 09, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 13, 2018 02h25 PM

National industry recorded a decrease of 1.8%, and seven of the 15 areas surveyed recorded negative rates from August to September 2018, in the seasonally adjusted series.  
The most significant decrease were recorded by Amazonas (-5.2%), São Paulo (-3.9%), Bahia (-3.3%) and Paraná (-3.1%). On the other hand, Ceará (3.7%) and Pará (3.5%) accounted for the biggest increases in the month. Pernambuco (1.7%), Goiás (1.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.3%), Rio de Janeiro (1.0%), Espírito Santo (0.9%) and Mato Grosso (0.9%) completed the group of areas with positive results. The support material to the Monthly Survey of Industry - Regional Output (PIM-PF Reg.) can be found on the right of the page. 

Short-Term Indicators of Industry - Results by Area - September 2018
Areas  Change (%)
September 2018/
August 2018*
September 2018/
September 2017
Cumulative in 
January-September
Cumulative index in 12 months
Amazonas -5.2 -14.8 7.8 8.1
Pará 3.5 14.1 9.8 10.2
Northeast Region -1.9 1.4 0.8 0.7
Ceará 3.7 3.7 0.3 1.4
Pernambuco 1.7 15.9 7.1 5.8
Bahia -3.3 -2.6 0.2 0.0
Minas Gerais -1.8 -2.2 -1.6 -1.0
Espírito Santo 0.9 3.6 -2.7 -2.5
Rio de Janeiro 1.0 -3.9 3.5 4.6
São Paulo -3.9 -6.6 2.4 3.8
Paraná -3.1 0.0 2.2 2.2
Santa Catarina -1.8 -0.3 4.1 4.9
Rio Grande do Sul 1.3 12.4 4.7 3.5
Mato Grosso 0.9 4.7 1.2 3.8
Goiás 1.4 -4.2 -3.6 -0.2
 Brazil -1.8 -2.0 1.9 2.7
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-adjusted series

Still concerning the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall declined 0.9% in the quarter ended in September 2018, against the level in the previous month, and and interrupted the upward trend that had been observed since May 2018. In regional terms, six areas recorded negative rates, with a highlight to the significant increases in Amazonas (-3.2%), São Paulo (-2.3%), Paraná (-1.3%) and Minas Gerais (-0.9%). On the other hand, Espírito Santo (2.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.0%), Ceará (1.8%), Pará (1.8%), Pernambuco (1.6%) and Mato Grosso (1.2%) accounted for the main increases in September 2018.

In comparison with September 2017, industry recorded a decrease of 2.0% in September 2018, with negative rates in seven of the 15 areas surveyed. It is worth mentioning that September 2018 had less business days (19) than the same month in the previous year (20).

In the month, Amazonas (-14.8%) recorded a two-digit (and biggest) decrease, mainly due to the performance of beverages (syrup preparations for the elaboration of beverages for industrial use), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (naphthas for petrochemical industry, diesel, fuel oils and motor gasoline), computer, electronic and optical products (televison sets) and printing and reproduction of recorded media (CDs and DVDs).  

São Paulo (-6.6%), Goiás (-4.2%), Rio de Janeiro (-3.9%), Bahia (-2.6%) and Minas Gerais (-2.2%) also recorded negative rates above the national average (-2.0%), whereas Santa Catarina (-0.3%) closed the group of areas with decrease of output in the month.

On the other hand, Pernambuco (15.9%), Pará (14.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (12.4) recorded the biggest increases in September 2018.  In Pernambuco, the hike resulted, mainly, from the advance in the activities of food products (granulated sugar, refined and VHP sugar and frozen poultry and giblets).  In Pará, the rise was mainly leveraged by the advances in mining and quarrying industries (raw or processed iron ores). Mato Grosso (4.7%), Ceará (3.7%), Espírito Santo (3.6%) and Northeast Region (1.4%) recorded positive results in the month, whereas Paraná (0.0%) remained unchanged.

Having advanced 1.2% in the third quarter of 2018, the industrial sector maintained the positive behavior observed since the first quarter of 2017 (1.5%), though it decelerated in comparison with results of the first (2.8%) and second quarters this year (1.7%), all comparisons against the same period a year ago. The deceleration of industrial output increase from the second to the third quarter of 2018 was also registered in four of the 15 areas surveyed: Amazonas (from 6.9% to -5.5%), São Paulo (from 4.0% to -1.0%), Rio de Janeiro (from 4.5% to 3.5%) and Minas Gerais (from -0.8% to -1.1%). On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (from 0.4% to 12.4%), Espírito Santo
 (from -5.0% to 3.0%), Pernambuco (from 6.2% to 13.7%), Pará (from 6.5% to 12.9%), Mato Grosso (from -1.3% to 3.5%), Ceará (from -2.8% to 1.0%) and Northeast Region (from -0.2% to 2.8%) recorded the main increases between the two periods.

 

The cumulative index in January-September 2018, against the same period in 2017, increased in 12 of the 15 areas surveyed. The highlights were: Pará (9.8%), Amazonas (7.8%) and Pernambuco (7.1%). Rio Grande do Sul (4.7%), Santa Catarina (4.1%), Rio de Janeiro (3.5%), São Paulo (2.4%) and Paraná (2.2%) also recorded increase above the average of industry (1,9%), whereas Mato Grosso (1.2%), Northeast Region (0.8%), Ceará (0.3%) and Bahia (0.2%) completed the groip of areas with positive results.

On the other hand, Goiás (-3.6%), Espírito Santo (-2.7%) and Minas Gerais (-1.6%) had the biggest cumulative increases in the year, mainly due to the negative behavior of  food products (granulated and VHP sugar) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (ethyl alcohol), in the first one; non-metallic mineral products (granite - including plates - and “Portland” cement) and pulp, paper and paper products (cellulose), i the second; and food products (granulated and VHp sugar) and mining and quarrying industry (crude or processed iron ore), in the last one.

In gterms of the cumulative index in twelve months, national industry, having changed from 3.1% in August to 2.7% in September 2018, faced decrease in dynamism once again, after interrupting, last May (3.0%) an the upward trend initiated in June 2016 (-9.7%). In regional terms, 11 of the 15 aeas surveyed recorded positive rates in September 2018, but seven ones recorded decrease against last August. Amazonas (from 10.2% to 8.1%), Rio de Janeiro (from 5.9% to 4.6%), São Paulo (from 4.9% to 3.8%), Goiás (from 1.0% to -0.2%), Bahia (from 0.8% to 0.0%) and Paraná (from 2.9% to 2.2%) recorded the main decreases between August and September 2018. In turn, Pernambuco (from 4.1% to 5.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 2.1% to 3.5%) and Espírito Santo (from -3.1% to -2.5%) recorded the main increases.