The prices of the overall industry changed 2.93% in September, a result above that registered in August (0.86%). In this same comparison, 22 out of the 24 activities recorded positive changes of prices, against 21 last month. The result had been 1.48% in September 2017. The cumulative index in the year reached 14.02% and, in 12 months, 18.20%. The support material of the release of the Producer Price Index is on the right side of this page.

In September, the prices of Mining and manufacturing industries (overall industry) changed 2.93% when compared with August, a result below that reported in August/July (0.86%).

Producer Price Indexes, according to Mining and Manufacturing Industries (Overall Industry) and Sections - Last three months

In September, the prices of Mining and manufacturing industries (overall industry) changed 2.93% when compared with August, a result below that reported in August/July (0.86%).

The four biggest changes took place among the products of the following industrial activities: mining and quarrying industries (12.82%), oil refining and ethanol products (7.44%), other chemicals (4.52%) and other transportation equipment (3.88%).

In terms of influence between September 2018 and August 2018 (2.93%), the highlights were: oil refining and ethanol products (0.89 p.p.), mining and quarrying industries (0.57 p.p.), other chemicals (0.49 p.p.) and basic metals (0.30 p.p.).

The cumulative indicator in the year (September 2018 against December 2017) reached 14.02%, versus 10.78% in August 2018.  Among the activities that posted the highest percentage changes in September 2018, the highlights were: mining and quarrying industries (41.64%), other chemicals (29.08%), oil refining and ethanol products (24.98%) and other transportation equipment (19.52%).

The sector that mostly influenced this indicator were: oil refining and ethanol products (2.86 p.p.), other chemicals (2.80 p.p.), food products (1.71 p.p.) and mining and quarrying industries (1.63 p.p.).

Concerning the cumulative indicator in 12 months, the comparison between September 2018 and September 2017 showed a price change of 18.20%, against 16.54% in August 2018. The four biggest changes were in mining and quarrying industries (56.90%), other chemicals (38.04%), oil refining and ethanol products (37.72%) and basic metals (26.55%).

The sectors that exerted the biggest influence were: oil refining and ethanol products (4.06 p.p.), other chemicals (3.55 p.p.), mining and quarrying industries (2.08 p.p.) and basic metals (2.07 p.p.).

The price change of 2.93% in September affected the major economic categories as follows: 1.82% in capital goods; 3.84% in intermediate goods; and 1.55% in consumer goods, of which 0.82% in durable consumer goods and 1.78% in semi and non-durable consumer goods.

Producer Price Indexes, according to the Mining and Manufacturing Industries (Overall Industry) and Major Economic Categories  - Last three months

The following sectors stood out in the results:

Mining and quarrying industries: The prices in this sector increased 12.82% in September, standing out as the highest change reported this month. Such change influenced the most the indicator of the overall industry (0.57 p.p. on 2.93%). Considering this figure, the cumulative rate in the year stayed at 41.64%. The change in the cumulative indicator in this sector influenced the overall indicator by 1.63 p.p. (14.02%). The comparison between the current month and the same month last year showed a change of 56.90%. As a result, this activity also stood out in the influence on the M/M-12 indicator of the overall industry (2.08 p.p. in 18.20%).

The changes reported in the indicators of this sector were mainly influenced by the prices of iron ores and crude petroleum oil.

Food products: after two months of negative changes in the prices, they changed 0.69%, on average, between September and August. As a result, the cumulative index in the year hit 8.96%, representing the third highest result in the time series for September (losing for September 2012, 15.21%, and September 2015, 10.14%). The change was of 10.10% when compared with the same month a year ago, which was the highest one after September 2016 (12.07%).

Besides being the sector with the highest weight in the calculation of the IPP, this activity was selected as it was the third biggest influence on the cumulative rate in the year (1.71 p.p. in 14.02%). The products that stood out were influenced by the behavior of the currency (as Brazil exports "residue of soybean oil extraction" and "concentrated orange juice" and imports "wheat flour") and, in the case of "sterilized milk/UHT/long life milk", by the smaller supply of the product along the first semester of the year.

Of the four products that stood out the most in the September 2018/August 2018 comparison, two – "frozen poultry and giblets" and "concentrated orange juice" – changed positively and two – "residue of soybean oil extraction" and "sterilized milk/UHT/long life milk" – changed negatively, being the joint influence 0.03 p.p. in 0.69%. This meant that the other 39 products that comprise the sample of this sector influenced 0.66 p.p.

The currency devaluation of about 4.8% in September directly impacted on the price of "concentrated orange juice" and should do the same on the price of "residue of soybean oil extraction". In this case, most companies showed a positive change in the prices of the products, though some important ones marketed them with a discount. The low supply of chicken explained the positive change in the prices, while the higher acquisition in the dairy belts in September was in line with the dropping price this month.

Oil refining and ethanol products: after two months of less intense price changes, the prices of this sector changed 7.44%, on average, the highest change in the time series and slightly above that of May (7.36%), the highest one since then. Considering the September´s figure, the cumulative index in the year stayed at 24.98%, the highest one for May. In the time series started in 2010, the average change of the other eight results was of 2.49%. Lastly, the change September 2018/September 2017 was of 37.72%, the third highest in the time series, which also registered the two highest figures in 2018 (42.41% in July and 40.10% in June).

This sector stood out in every indicator surveyed. In terms of change, it was the second one in the M/M-1 comparison and the third one in the other two. In terms of influence, it was the first one in every comparison (0.89 p.p., in 2.93%, in M/M-1; 2.86 p.p., in 14.02%, in the cumulative rate in the year; and 4.06 p.p. in 18.20%, in M/M-12)

Other chemicals: the chemical industry recorded an average price change of 4.52% in September over August, representing the third highest change among all the activities surveyed by the IPP and completing thirteen consecutive months of price rises. As a result, the cumulative index in the year positively changed 29.08% – the highest one for September since the beginning of the time series in 2010 – and the cumulative rate in the last 12 months, 38.04% – the highest change for this activity in the entire time series –, a situation quite different than that posted in September 2017, when the cumulative index in the year was 1.66% and the cumulative rate in 12 months, 1.92%.

The figures reported this month were due to the foreign prices, costs of the imported raw material, prices of petroleum products, especially naphtha, and to the valuation of the dollar in relation to the real, which reached 4.8% in the month, 25.0% in the year and 31.3% in 12 months. It is worth highlighting that, of the 32 products surveyed in this sector, 29 rose their prices in September, against 14 in August. It becomes evident when analyzing the four products that registered the highest price changes this month, all of them positive.

Concerning the four products that mostly influenced, all of them registered positive figures: "NPK-based manure or fertilizers", which uses to show prices with such behavior by this time of the year, "herbicides for agricultural use", "polypropylene (PP)" and "ammonium sulphate or urea". Regarding the cumulative rate in the year and over the last 12 months, all the products recorded positive figures and three of them matched each other: "NPK-based manure or fertilizers", "unsaturated ethylene (ethane)" and "polypropylene (PP)". "Herbicides for agricultural use" stood out in the cumulative index in the year and "unsaturated propane (propylene)", in the cumulative rate in 12 months.

Basic metals: the comparison between September 2018 and August 2018 showed a change of 3.66%, accruing 12 positive changes over the last 13 months (the change was of -0.06% in January 2018). As a result, this activity accrued a change of 18.94% in the year and of 26.55% in the last 12 months, representing the highest change in the two indexes since the beginning of the time series. An analysis of the index-numbers pointed out that the prices in this sector recorded a cumulative change of 55.17% between December 2013 (base) and September 2018.

 Among the four products with the highest price changes in month against previous month, cumulative in the year and cumulative over the last 12 months, all the figures were positive. Except for "carbon steel bars" and "stainless steel coil or sheet, including strips", the others were among the products that mostly influenced the results this month in at least one of the indicators.

The four products with the biggest influence this month accounted for 3.00 p.p. of the change, i.e., the other 18 products influenced 0.65 p.p. The four products were: "carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates", "unwrought aluminum alloy", "uncoated cold-rolled steel carbon coil", and "uncoated hot-rolled steel carbon coil". 

Except for "unwrought aluminum alloy" – which was replaced by the influence of "galvanized steel coils or plates", which, on its turn, was replaced by "unwrought non-alloy aluminum" in the influence in 12 months –, the same products stood out in terms of influence on the the cumulative rate in the year.

The behavior of this sector was influenced by the combination of the results of the steel (linked with steel products) and non-ferrous (copper and aluminum) groups, which had different behaviors in terms of prices. The first group, linked with the steel sector, was affected by the excess capacity of steel in the world – despite the production cuts in China, followed by a price increase –, valuation of the dollar against the real (25.0% in the year), fluctuation of the values of iron ore – whose prices have been recovered since the second semester of 2017 – and heating up of the car sector. Concerning the second group – non-ferrous materials –, their prices used to be linked with the quotations in the international stock markets. The average foreign price of aluminum reduced in September, though it did not affect the increasing prices of "unwrought aluminum alloy".

Motor vehicles: this sector changed 0.70% in September when compared with the immediately previous month. As a result, the cumulative change in the year reached 5.68%. Just for the sake of comparison, the cumulative index was 3.68% in August 2017. In the last 12 months, this sector accrued a change of 6.58%.

It is worth highlighting that the monthly change represented the 13th consecutive positive result and the 25th over the last 26 months, as the only negative change was recorded in August 2017 (-0.08%). The period between August 2016 and September 2018 posted a cumulative change of 13.58%.

Having the fourth highest weight among all the sectors surveyed, the activity of motor vehicles stood out with a contribution of 10.52%, only after the sectors of Food products (19.14%), Oil refining and ethanol products (13.18%) and Other chemicals (11.45%).

Among the four products that mostly influenced the M/M-1 indicator, all of them positively impacted on the index: "flex-fuel, gasoline or ethanol passenger car with any engine power output", "engine parts for motor vehicles", "tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers" and "bodies for buses", being the first three among those four products with the highest weight in this sector. The influence of these four products that mostly impacted on the monthly change was of 0.52 p.p., i.e., the other 21 products of this activity contributed with 0.18 p.p.

Concerning the long-term indicators – cumulative rate in the year and M/M-12 –, all the four most influential products on the indexes were repeated in both indicators: "flex-fuel, gasoline or ethanol passenger car with any engine power output", "diesel truck with load capacity above 5t", "engine parts for motor vehicles" and "tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers", being them those with the highest weight in this activity and that positively impacted on both indicators.

Other transportation equipment: the prices of this activity positively changed 3.88% in September over the previous month.

The cumulative indicator in the year stayed at 19.52%. Compared with September 2017, the M/M-12 indicator changed 24.28%.

In terms of influence, the M/M-1, cumulative in the year and M/M-12 indicators of this sector represented: 0.09 p.p. in 2.93%, 0.44 p.p. in 14.02%, and 0.55 p.p. in 18.20%, respectively, on the indicators of the overall industry.

The figures in this sector mainly reflected the changes reported in the prices of "planes weighting above 2,000 kg", impacted by the devaluation of real along the year.