In June, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2020 was estimated at 247.4 million tonnes, maintaining the record level 2.5% above the 2019 harvest (more 6 million tonnes) and 0.6% above that estimated in May (more 1.5 million tonnes).

The area to be harvested was of 64.6 million hectares, 2.2% above that in 2019 (1.4 million more hectares) and stable (0.0%) in relation to the previous estimate (29.6 more hectares).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 92.3% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2019, the area for corn increased 1.7% – a rise of 4.7% in corn - 1st crop and of 0.6% in corn - 2nd crop –, the area for soybeans, 2.9% and it dropped 2.0% for rice and 0.1% for upland cotton.

In relation to the previous year, the estimate was of increases of 5.6% for soybeans (119.9 million tonnes), of 5.3% for rice (10.8 million tonnes) and of 0.4% for upland cotton (6.9 million tonnes). A decrease of 3.0% was expected for corn (growth of 2.8% in corn first-crop and a decrease of 5.1% in corn second-crop), with a production of 97.5 million tonnes (26.7 million tonnes of corn in the first crop and 70.8 million tonnes of corn in the second crop).

The regional distribution of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was: Central-West (115.8 million tonnes), South (73.6 million tonnes), Southeast (25.6 million tonnes), Northeast (21.9 million tonnes) and North (10.5 million tonnes). That represented an increase in almost all regions: Northeast (14.3%), Southeast (7.8%), North (7.0%) and Central-West (3.8%). South retreated 4.7%.

In the distribution of the production by Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the largest national grain producer with a share of 28.4%, followed by Paraná (16.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.7%), Goiás (10.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.9%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%). These states together accounted for 79.6% of the national forecast. In relation to the participation of the Brazilian regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (46.8%), South (29.8%), Southeast (10.3%), Northeast (8.9%) and North (4.2%).

Highlights in June 2020 estimate in relation to May

In June, the changes in the following production estimates over May stood out: coffea arabica (4.8%), sugarcane (1.8%), cassava (1.4%), wheat (1.2%), sorghum (1.2%), oat (1.0%), corn - 2nd crop (0.9%), corn - 1st crop (0.6%) and soybeans (0.5%). Potatoes - 3rd crop (26.2%), beans - 1st crop (3.0%), barley (2.4%), coffea canephora (1.9%), potatoes - 2nd crop (1.6%), beans - 2nd crop (1.0%) and potatoes - 1st crop (0.5%) reduced.

In absolute numbers, the highlights were the changes in sugarcane (11.9 million tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (647.7 thousand tonnes), soybeans (547.3 thousand tonnes), cassava (266.6 thousand tonnes), corn - 1st crop (160.8 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (121.7 thousand tonnes), wheat (82.7 thousand tonnes), sorghum (31.7 thousand tonnes), oat (10.5 thousand tonnes), potatoes - 3rd crop (-239.3 thousand tonnes), beans - 1st crop (-42.3 thousand tonnes), barley (-10.5 tonnes), coffea canephora (-16.6 tonnes), potatoes - 2nd crop (-17.6 thousand tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (-11.0 thousand tonnes) and potatoes - 1st crop (-8.8 thousand tonnes).

POTATOES - The output should reach 3.4 million tonnes, a decline of 7.2% over May. Goiás, which reassessed the production estimate of potatoes with an increase of 11.9% in relation to the previous month, positively stood out. São Paulo was the negative highlight, since it reduced by 31.3% the production estimate. In relation to 2019, the total production estimate of potatoes also declined, by 11.2%. The states of São Paulo (-31.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-19.9%) and Goiás (-21.3%) contributed to this result.

Having produced 1.6 million tonnes, the first crop declined 0.5% over the previous month. The result was influenced by the reduction of 3.9% in the output in São Paulo, which recorded a reduction of 2.8% in the planted area. The reduction was of 3.6% in relation to the previous year, and the negative highlights for this harvest were the states of Santa Catarina (-11.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-19.8%). Minas Gerais (1.8%) and Paraná (4.0%) reported a growth in the output.

The estimated production for the second crop was of 1.1 million tonnes, representing a retreat of 1.6% over the previous month. The states of Paraná (-1.7%) and São Paulo (-4.8%) were the negative highlights that contributed to this result. This estimate was 7.0% lower when compared with the previous year, due to the reduction of 4.4% in the estimate of the average yield, being Minas Gerais (-11.3%), Paraná (-5.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-20.5%) the states that mostly influenced this result.

Concerning the third crop, the production estimate was of 674.7 thousand tonnes, a retreat of 26.2% in relation to the previous month and of 29.7% over 2019. São Paulo was the negative highlight in this survey, since its production estimate was reduced by 64.4% in relation to May and by 66.0% in relation to 2019. Goiás increased its estimates by 11.9% against the previous month, though it reduced 21.3% in the annual comparison.

COFFEE (grain) - The estimate of the Brazilian production of coffee was of 3.5 million tonnes or 59.0 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 3.1% over the previous month. The output estimate was 18.2% bigger in relation to the previous year.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2,671.8 thousand tonnes or 44.5 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 4.8% over the previous month and of 28.9% over the previous year (due to the biennial positive bearings of the harvest). Accounting for 72.3% of the production in 2020, the output estimate in Minas Gerais, the largest producer state, was of 1,931.2 thousand tonnes or 32.2 million 60-kg sacks, which represented a growth of 30.2% and the average yield should rise 21.2% over the previous year.

Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output of 869.0 thousand tonnes or 14.5 million 60-kg sacks decreased 1.9% over May and 5.8% in relation to the previous year. The production in Espírito Santo, which represented 65.8% of the national overall, was 4.2% smaller due to the decline of 4.3% in the average yield. It retreated 10.3% over the previous year. Bahia revised the output (increase of 7.9%) and Rondônia maintained the May estimate.

SUGARCANE – The Brazilian output should reach 685.4 million tonnes, representing a growth of 1.8% in relation to the previous month. Having produced 353.9 million tonnes, São Paulo was responsible for 51.6% of the national output. Positive revisions of 0.9% in the area to be harvested and of 2.6% in the productivity caused an increase of 3.5% in the output. In Paraná, the production estimate fell 0.9%, due to the reduction in the productivity. In terms of importance, sugar should continue as the second by-product of sugarcane in this harvest, though it continued to rise its share when compared with the 2019 harvest.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil were wheat, white oat and barley. The estimate of the production of wheat was of 7.0 million tonnes, an increase of 1.2% over the previous month. The output estimate was 33.0% bigger in relation to the previous year.

The South Region should account for 90.2% of the national triticale production in 2020. With a share of 52.8% of the national overall, Paraná, the biggest producer of this cereal, had its output estimated at 3,672.1 thousand tonnes, a growth of 3.8% over the previous month and of 72.2% over the production in 2019. The average yield and planted area increased by 56.0% and 10.4% in this comparison, respectively. With a share of 35.2% of the national overall, Rio Grande do Sul, the second biggest producer, should produce 2.5 million tonnes, a growth of 7.2% over the previous year and, Santa Catarina, 155.1 thousand tonnes, a growth of 5.5%.

The production estimate of oatwas of 1.0 million tonnes, a growth of 1.0% in relation to the previous month. The biggest producers of this cereal were Rio Grande do Sul, with 699.3 thousand tonnes, and Paraná, with 217.1 thousand tonnes. The Brazilian output of oat should grow 12.4% over the last year.

Concerning barley, the estimated production stayed at 423.1 thousand tonnes, a decline of 2.4% in relation to the previous month. The biggest producers of this cereal were Paraná, with 288.8 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 119.3 thousand tonnes. In relation to the previous year, the Brazilian production of barley should grow 5.7%.

BEAN (seeds) - The estimate of the Brazilian production was of 3.0 million tonnes, representing a retreat of 1.6% over the previous month. Considering the three crops, the largest producers in this survey were Paraná with 19.9%, Minas Gerais with 17.2% and Goiás with 11.1% of participation in the national production. Concerning the annual change, the estimate for the planted area was reduced by 3.9%, and the harvest estimate, by 2.9%. The average yield estimate rose 0.6%.

The first crop of beans represented 46.5% of the total output of that grain and it was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, a retreat of 3.0% against the May´s estimate. The positive highlight was Pernambuco, which had its production estimate increased by 4.1%, due to the growth of 4.5% in the harvested area (4.5%). The negative highlights were São Paulo, with a reduction of 21.1% in the output, Goiás (-6.7%) and Ceará (-4.1%). In relation to the previous year, it increased 6.9% in the output, 5.6% in the average yield and declined 1.7% in the planted area.

The 2nd crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.0% over May´s estimate, which reflected the average yield, which became 0.7% lower. Due to a severe drought, Paraná reported a decline of 2.8% in its production estimate, as well as Goiás (6.7%). Concerning the annual change, the production estimate decreased 7.9%. The second crop represented 36.4% of the total beans produced in Brazil. The largest production estimates for this crop come from Paraná (24.5%), Bahia (17.1%) and Minas Gerais (16.3%).

For the 3rd crop of beans, the production estimate was of 503.5 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.1% over March. The area to be planted also had its estimate increased by 1.2%. The highlight was São Paulo, which expected a rise of 10.2% in its production and of 15.7% in its area to be planted. In relation to the previous year, the estimated production had a reduction of 14.4%, with the area to be planted declining 14.5%.

CASSAVA (root)- The estimate of the production of cassava was of 19.0 million tonnes, representing a rise of 1.4% over the previous month. In June, the production estimates of São Paulo (15.6%), Acre (0.8%), Ceará (4.9%), Rio Grande do Norte (1.8%), Pernambuco (0.2%) and Paraná (0.5%) increased, and Goiás declined (-1.1%). In relation to the previous year, the estimated output was 0.1% smaller.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate rose 0.8%, adding up to 97.5 million tonnes and, in the annual comparison, retreated 3.0%, with a drop of 4.7% in the average yield, though the area to be planted increased 1.2% and the area to be harvested, 1.7%. The first crop should represent 27.4% of the Brazilian production in 2020, and the second one, 72.6%.

In the first crop of corn, the production reached 26.7 million tonnes, an increase of 0.6% over the previous month. The output of Acre (1.1%), Pernambuco (4.0%), Bahia (3.2%), Minas Gerais (0.3%), São Paulo (3.0%) and Goiás (2.6%) increased. The output was 2.8% higher than in 2019, the planted area increased 2.8% and the average yield declined 1.8%. The output of Rio Grande do Sul declined 26.8% due to a severe drought. As a result, Minas Gerais surpassed Rio Grande do Sul as the biggest producer of corn in this harvest.

For the 2nd crop the estimated production was of 70.8 million tonnes, representing a growth of 0.9% over the previous month. The most significant increases in the production estimates were reported by Sergipe (17.0% or 108.6 thousand tonnes), Minas Gerais (2.2% or 60.4 thousand tonnes), São Paulo (20.8% or 464.7 thousand tonnes) and Paraná (0.9% or 101.8 thousand tonnes). But in the comparison with the previous year, the production of corn 2nd crop declined 5.1% and the average yield, 5.7%. The Brazilian output of corn - 2nd crop had been a record in the IBGE´s time series in 2019, representing a high comparison basis. Paraná (15.3%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (9.5%) and Minas Gerais (7.7%) posted relevant declines, whereas Mato Grosso grew 0.8%.

SOYBEANS (grain) - The production of soybeans in 2020 was another record, a it added up to 119.9 million tonnes, which represented an increase of 5.6% over the previous harvest. The monthly figure registered a growth of 0.5% in the volume harvested, mainly impacted by the data raised in São Paulo, which rose 10.6% or 388.6 thousand tonnes, and in Bahia, which rose 3.8% or 220.5 thousand tonnes. The output in these states were of 4.0 and 6.0 million tonnes, respectively.

Estimated at 11.2 million tonnes, the production in Rio Grande do Sul retreated 39.3% or 7.3 million tonnes over 2019. This state suffered a severe drought between December 2019 and May this year, jeopardizing most of the areas that produce soybeans. The lack of rainfall directly influenced the average yield of the grain, which should be close to 1,883 kg/ha, a drop of 40.7% in the comparison with the state average in 2019.

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated production reached 2.8 million tonnes, an increase of 1.2% in relation to the previous month, as a result of the growth of 2.0% in the estimated productivity of the crops. The states of Bahia and São Paulo recorded significant increases of 21.1% and 57.6%, respectively, in their production estimates, while Goiás reduced it by 3.6%. The production grew 6.5% in relation to the previous year, with a highlight to the average yield, which should increase 5.6%.