In August 2019, industrial production grew 0.8% compared to July (seasonally adjusted series), offsetting a great part of the 0.9% loss accumulated in the May-July 2019 period. In the non-adjsuted series, in the comparison with August 2018, the total industry rate decreased by 2.3% in August 2019, after having also declining in June (-5.9%) and July (-2.5%).

The industrial sector accumulated a decrease of 1.7% in the first eight months of 2019. The cumulative index in the last 12 months, with a decrease of 1.7% in August 2019, showed a pace of decline compared to the previous month's result (-1.3%) and kept the predominantly downward trend begun in July 2018 (3.2%). See the full post and more information in the support material.

10 out of 26 surveyed sectors grew in August

Only one out of the four major economic categories and 10 of the 26 surveyed sectors recorded increases in production in the growth of 0.8% of industrial activities from July to August 2019. Among the activities, the major positive influence was recorded by the mining and quarrying industry, which advanced 6.6%, the fourth consecutive positive rate, accumulating, thus, a gain of 25.2% in this period. It is worth highlighting that these positive results interrupted three consecutive months of decreases in production, a period that  accumulated reductions of 24.2%.  Other relevant positive impacts were noticed in the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (3.6%) and food products (2.0%). The first one recorded advances of 7.7% in the period of May-August 2019; and the second one interrupted three consecutive months of decreases in production,  a period when it  accumulated losses of 3.0%.

On the other hand, among the 16 sectors that reduced the production this month, the performance of major importance for the global average was recorded by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, which rebounded 3.0%, reversing, thus, the increase of 1.4% verified in the previous month, when it had interrupted two consecutive months of losses. In this period, it accumulated reductions of 4.4%. It is also worth mentioning the negative results recorded in the sectors of manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-7.4%), machinery and equipment (-2.7%) and pharmaceutical products (-4.9%), after growth seen  last July: 0.9%, 6.4% and 6.4%, respectively.

Among the major economic categories, still considering the comparison with the previous month, intermediate goods grew 1.4% and recorded the only positive rate in August 2019, after having retreated in July (-0.6%) and then offsetting the rate in July (0.0%). On the other hand, the durable goods sector (-1.8%) recorded the sharpest rebound this month, after advances of 0.4% in July 2019, interrupting two consecutive months of falls in production, a period when it accumulated a retreat of 3.0%. The sector of semi-durable and non-durable goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.4%) also recorded negative results in August 2019, with the first one reversing part of the advance of 1.3% verified in July; and the second one recording the third consecutive month of falls in production, accumulating losses of 1.1% in this period.

Quarterly moving average records no changes (0.0%)

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry recorded no changes (0.0%) in the quarter closed in August 2019, against the level in the previous month, after having recording a major downward trend since September 2018.

Among the major economic categories, also in relation to the movement of this index on margin, durable goods (-0.7%) and capital goods (-0.4%) recorded the negative results this month, with both achieving the second consecutive month of falls and accumulating, in this period, losses of 1.6% and 0.5% respectively. The semi-durable and non-durable goods sector also recorded no changes (0.0%) in August 2019, after recording decreases of 0.4% in the previous month. Conversely, the intermediate goods sector (0.3%) recorded the sole advance this month and presented the second consecutive positive result in this comparison, after interrupting, in the previous month, the downward trend started in January 2019.

Industrial production falls 2.3% in relation to August 2018

In comparison to August 2018, the industrial sector recorded retreats of 2.3% in August 2019, with negative results in the four major economic categories, 23 of the 26 sectors, 55 of the 79 groups and 63.1% of the 805 surveyed products. It is worth mentioning that August 2019 (22 days) had 1 less business day than August in the previous year (23 days).

Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-5.8%), other chemical products (-6.1%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-8.4%) were the major negative influences in the formation of the industry average, under the pressure, mainly, of the lower output in the items: motor vehicles, in the first one; NPK fertilizers, non-saturated ethylene, superphosphate, Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ammonium, sodium hydroxide (caustic soda), paint and varnish for printing and building, urea and oxygen, in the second one; and chemical wood pulp, in the third one.

It is also worth highlighting the negative contributions recorded by the sectors of mining and quarrying industry (-6.4%), rubber and plastic products (-5.6%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-12.7%), pharmaceutical products (-6.4%), machinery and equipment (-3.1%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-6.5%), beverages (-3.7%), and other transportation equipment (-9.7%). In terms of products, the major negative impacts in this sector was, respectively, iron ore; plastic parts and accessories for motor vehicles, new tires for motor vehicles and motorcycles, plastic packaging for food and beverages, plate, sheets and other adhesive flat shapes of plastic, disposable plastic articles, plastic sacks and bags for packaging or transportation, plastic plates, sheets, foils and strips, plastic articles for household use, vulcanized rubber transmission belts and reservoirs, water tank, cistern, pools and similar artifacts of plastic; maintenance and repair service for machinery and industrial equipment, for floating structures, for non-electric driving machines and equipment for mineral prospecting and extraction; medicines; farm tractors, ball bearings, needles, cylinders and rollers for industrial equipment, harvesting machinery, loaders, filling, closing and packaging machinery, machining centers for metalworking and centrifugal pumps; cottom shirts, long pants, dresses, outfit, cottom panties, overalls and coats, sleepwear or bathing suits for women; syrup preparations for beverages for industrial purposes; and vessels for passenger or cargo transportation (including tankers and platforms), parts and pieces for railway vehicles, aircraft and passenger or cargo wagons.

On the other hand, also comparing to August 2018, among the activities that recorded increases in production, the major influences in overall industry were coke, petroleum products and biofuels (5.0%), food products (1.0%), stimulated, mainly, by the increase in the production of gasoline, ethyl alcohol and fuels, in the first one; and granulated and VHP sugar, concentrated orange juice and meat and frozen poultry and giblets, in the second one.

Against the same month in the previous year, durable goods (-5.6%) and capital goods (-3.7%), recorded, in August 2019, the sharpest retreats among the major economic categories. The sectors of intermediate goods (-2.1%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (-0.7%) also presented negative results this month, but both with less intense reductions than that of the national average (-2.3%).

The durable goods sector rebounded 5.6% in August 2019 against equal period in the previous year, after advances of 1.0% last July. This month, the sector was under the pressure of reductions in car production (-11.9%). It is also worth mentioning the decrease recorded by the furniture group (-6.2%). On the other hand, the major positive impacts were white goods (7.4%) and brown goods (3.8%), motorcycles (9.9%) and other household appliances (4.7%).

The capital goods sector rebounded 3.7% in the monthly index of August 2019, after advances of 6.6% last July. In the formation of this month’s index, the sector was influenced, to a great extent, by falls recorded in the groups capital goods for transportation equipment (-6.6%), under the pressure, mainly, of the lower production of vessels for transportation of people and cargo (including tankers and platforms), trucks, aircraft, wagons for passenger and for transportation of goods and trailers and semi-trailers (including those of agricultural purposes). The other negative rates were recorded in capital goods for agricultural purposes (-17.3%), for mixed use (-8.3%), for industrial use (-1.4%) and for construction (-4.8%). On the other hand, the only positive impact was recorded in the group of capital goods for electricity (5.2%).

Against the same month in the previous year, the sector of intermediate goods performed the third negative rate with retreats of 2.1% in the monthly index of August 2019, but with lower falls than the ones verified in latest June (-6.2%) and July (-5.2%). This month results were explained, mainly, by the rebounds in the products related to activities in other chemicals products (-5.9%), pulp, paper and other paper products (-9.7%), mining and quarrying industry (-1.8%), rubber products and plastic materials (-5.3%), basic metals (-1.5%), non-metallic mineral products (-2.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-1.7%), machinery and equipment (-2.8%), metal products (-1.1%) and textiles (-1.4%), while the positive pressures were recorded in food products (5.7%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (0.7%). It is worth mentioning yet in this economic category, the negative results of groups of typical input for construction (0.4%)and packing (0.5%, both reversing the results noticed in the previous month: 3.2% and 1.6%, respectively.

The sector of semi-durable goods rebounded 1.7 in August 2019 against the same month in the previous year, after an advance of 1.5% last July. The performance this month was explained, to a large extent, by the reduction noticed in the group of food and beverage for domestic consumption (-2.9%), under the pressure, mainly, of the lowest production of cookies and crackers, candies and chocolate bars, frozen, fresh or chilled beef, ice cream and popsicles, meat and frozen, fresh or chilled poultry meat and giblets, dried pasta, grape wine, beers and draft beers. It is also wort mentioning the negative results recorded in the group of semi-durable (-4.2%) and non-durable goods (-2.7%), mostly influenced by the retreats recorded in the items cottom shirts, long pants (cottom or not), men’s leather shoes, carpets and other textiles for floor covering, aluminum household artifacts, cottom dress, sneakers, outfit (cottom or not) and molded rubber shoe, in the first one; and medicines, paper printings for advertising and promotional purposes, beauty products or makeup, hair preparation products and insecticides, in the second one. On the other hand, the subsector of fuels (13.3%) presented the only positive rate in this category, stimulated by the biggest production of motor gasoline and ethyl alcohol.

In 2019, industry accumulates -1.7%

In the cumulative index for January-August 2019, against the same period of previous year, the industrial sector presented reductions of 1.7%, with negative results in one of the four major economic categories, 16 out of the 26 sectors, 47 of the 79 groups and 55.2% of the 805 surveyed products.

Among the activities, mining and quarrying industry (-10. 7%) was the major negative influence in the formation of the industry average, under the pressure, to a large extent, of the item iron ore. It is also worth highlighting the negative contributions recorded in the sectors of maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-9.9%), other transportation equipment (-11.1%), pulp, paper and paper products (-3.3%), computer, electronic and optical equipment (-4.2%), rubber and plastic products (-2.2%), wood products (-5.4%)and pharmaceutical products (-2.7%), influenced, mainly, by the item maintenance and repair of machinery and equipment for mineral prospecting and extraction; vessels for transportation of people and cargo (including tankers and platforms), aircraft, pieces and bodies for railway vehicles and wagons for passengers and for freight transportation; chemical wood pulp; cellphone transmitters and receivers, antennas, personal portable computers (laptops, notebooks, tablets and the like), personal desktop (PC) and televisions; plastic pieces and accessories for motor vehicles, new tires for motor vehicles, plastic articles for household purposes and disposable plastic articles; sawn, flattened and polished wood and wood fiber panels; and medicines.

On the other hand, among the nine activities which presented increases in production, the major influence in the overall industry was recorded by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.1%), stimulated, mostly, by the biggest production of the items car pieces, trucks, trailers and semi-trailers, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and bodies for buses. Other relevant positive contributions for the national overall were metal products (4.7%), beverage (2.95) and non-metallic mineral products (1.9%). In terms of products, the most important positive impacts in this sector were, respectively, prefabricated metal pieces for construction, iron and steel containers for gas transportation or storage, aluminum cans for packaging, steam boilers, iron and steel towers and gantries, revolvers and pistols, shavers, aluminum articles for household purposes, iron and steel sheet structures or in other shapes, iron and steel screw, hooks, pins and other artifacts, miscellaneous artifacts of stamped iron and steel; beer and draft beer, ceramic tiles for paving or coating, bottles, carboys and glass jars for packaging, concrete putty for construction, “Portland” cement and prefabricated elements for construction.

Moreover, among the major economic categories, the profile of results for the eight months of 2019 presented less dynamism for intermediate goods (-2.8%), driven, mainly, by the verified reduction in the mining and quarrying industry (-10.7%), justified by the effects of the Brumadinho (MG) dam disaster occurred in January 2019. On the other hand, the producing sector of capital goods (0.7%), durable goods (0.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (0.2%) recorded the positive rates in the cumulative index of the year.