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In March, industrial output fell in eight of the 15 areas surveyed

May 09, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: May 09, 2018 12h35 PM

Eight of the 15 areas surveyed recorded negative rates (seasonally adjusted series), considering the 0.1% decrease of industrial output from February to March. 

The highlights were the decreases recorded in Bahia (-4.5%), Rio de Janeiro (-3.7%) and Northeast Region (-3.6%). Santa Catarina (-1.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-0.9%), Paraná (-0.9%), Minas Gerais (-0.5%) and Ceará (-0.2%) complete the group of areas with negative results in March 2018.

Conversely, Pará (9.0%), Mato Grosso (4.7%), Espírito Santo (2.8%), Amazonas (2.6%) and São Paulo (2.0%) accounted for the biggest increases in the month, after negative results in the previous month: -11.0%, -4.5%, -0.9%, -6.5% and -0.5%, respectively. Other positive rates came from Goiás (1.2%) and Pernambuco (0.2%). Support material about the Monthly Survey of Industry - Regional Output cn be found on the right of the page.  

Short-Term Indicators of Industry
Regional Results
March 2018
Areas  Change (%)
March 2018/February 2018* March 2018/March 2017 Cumulative January-March Cumulative in the last 12 months
Amazonas 2.6 24.3 24.4 9.7
Pará 9.0 10.1 8.1 10.1
Região Nordeste -3.6 -3.6 -0.3 -0.2
Ceará -0.2 2.4 3.3 3.4
Pernambuco 0.2 0.9 1.0 -2.0
Bahia -4.5 -5.3 0.9 0.3
Minas Gerais -0.5 -4.6 -2.5 0.1
Espírito Santo 2.8 -2.4 -6.0 -0.8
Rio de Janeiro -3.7 -0.3 3.0 3.6
São Paulo 2.0 4.0 5.4 4.6
Paraná -0.9 -2.0 -1.2 2.6
Santa Catarina -1.2 2.0 5.9 4.7
Rio Grande do Sul -0.9 -4.9 0.3 -0.2
Mato Grosso 4.7 3.4 0.5 3.8
Goiás 1.2 -2.5 -1.0 2.3
Brazil -0.1 1.3 3.1 2.9
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

In the same seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average of industry recorded a decrease of 0.7% in the quarter ended March 2018, against the previous year, after a downward trend which had been observed since May 2017. Eight areas recorded negative results, the main ones being: Rio Grande do Sul (-1.6%), Rio de Janeiro (-1.5%), Ceará (-1.1%), Minas Gerais (-0.9%), Northeast Region (-0.9%) and São Paulo (-0.8%). Amazonas (1.3%), Pará (1.0%), Pernambuco (0.9%) and Espírito Santo (0.8%), on the other hand, accounted for the most significant results in 2018.

Against the same month a year before, industry recorded an increase of 1,3% in March 2018, with positive results in seven of the 18 subsectors surveyed. It is worth mentioning the calendar-effect, since March 2018 (2 days) had two business days less than the same month in 2017. Amazonas (24.3%) and Pará (10.1%) accounted for the most significant increases. São Paulo (4.0%), Mato Grosso (3.4%), Ceará (2.4%) and Santa Catarina (2.0%) also grew above average (1.3%). Pernambuco (0.9%) completes the group of areas with output increase in the month. 

On the contrary, Bahia (-5.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (-4.9%) and Minas Gerais (-4.6%) recorded their most significant increases in March. The other negative results were registered in the Northeast Region (-3.6%), Goiás (-2.5%), Espírito Santo (-2.4%), Paraná (-2.0%) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.3%).

Considering the cumulative index in the year against the same period in the previous year (3.1%), there was expansion in ten of the 15 areas surveyed, the main highlights being the two-digit growth in Amazonas (24.4%). Pará (8.1%), Santa Catarina (5.9%), São Paulo (5.4%) and Ceará (3,3%) also recorded increases above the average of industry (3.1%), wheres Rio de Janeiro (3.0%), Pernambuco (1.0%), Bahia (0.9%), Mato Grosso (0.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.3%) completed the group of areas with positive results in the end of Q1 2018. Espírito Santo (-6.0%) recorded the main cumulative increase in the year, followed by Minas Gerais (-2.5%), Paraná (-1.2%), Goiás (-1.0%) and Northeast Region (0.3%).

On a quarterly basis, industry advanced 3.1% in Q1 2018 and remained on an upward trend for the fifth semester in a row, but decelerated in comparison against the last quarter of 2017 (4.9%), being both comparisons with the same period a year before. In the same type of comparison, 11 of the 15 areas surveyed recorded loss of dynamism, mainly Goiás (from 10.6% to -1.0%), Mato Grosso (from 11.8% to 0.5%), Rio de Janeiro (from 7.8% to 3.0%), Minas Gerais (from 1.5% to -2.5%), Espírito Santo (from -2.2% to -6.0%), Paraná (from 2.4% to -1.2%), Pará (from 11.1% to 8.1%) and São Paulo (from 8.1% to 5.4%). Amazonas (from 9.2% to 24.4%) and Pernambuco (from -2.2% to 1.0%) accounted for the most significant increases between the two periods. 

Short-Term Indicators of Industry - Regional Results  
Quarterly Index - Percent change (%) 
(Base: the same month as in the previou year) 
Areas 2017 2018  
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 
Amazonas 1.0 2.3 3.8 9.2 24.4
Pará 7.8 9.2 12.0 11.1 8.1
Nordeste -1.5 -2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.3
Ceará -0.7 2.0 3.4 4.6 3.3
Pernambuco 6.0 -4.0 -2.8 -2.2 1.0
Bahia -7.5 -5.7 6.8 -0.6 0.9
Minas Gerais 3.5 1.0 0.4 1.5 -2.5
Espírito Santo 4.0 5.2 0.0 -2.2 -6.0
Rio de Janeiro 5.7 1.8 1.7 7.8 3.0
São Paulo 0.2 -0.2 5.3 8.1 5.4
Paraná 6.6 1.9 6.8 2.4 -1.2
Santa Catarina 5.5 1,3 4.2 7.5 5.9
Rio Grande do Sul 1.7 1.5 -1.7 -1.0 0.3
Mato Grosso 1.0 -3.5 6.9 11.8 0.5
Goiás 6.7 -2.1 2.2 10.6 -1.0
Brazil 1.3 0.4 3.1 4.9 3.1
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria               

The cumulative index in the last 12 months increased 2.9% in March and repreated the result of the previous month, having remained as the biggest increase since June 2011 (3.6%) and on an upward trend since June 2016 (-9.7%). In regional terms, 11 of the 15 areas surveyed recordd positive rates in March 2018, but only five had some dynamism against the indexes of last February. Among the areas, Amazonas (from 6.9% to 9.7%), Ceará (from 3.0% to 3.4%), Pará (from 9.8% to 10.1%), São Paulo (from 4.4% to 4.6%) and Mato Grosso (from 3.6% to 3.8%) accelerated between February and March 2018, whereas Rio Grande do Sul (from 0.9% to -0.2%), Goiás (from 3.0% to 2.3%), Paraná (from 3.3% to 2.6%) and Minas Gerais (from 0.7% to 0.1%) accounted for the main decreases between the two periods.