The first estimate for 2018 of the national cereal, legume and oilseed crops totaled 226.1 million metric tons, a 6.0% decrease compared to 2017 (240.6 million metric tons), representing a reduction of 14.5 million metric tons. In relation to the 3rd estimate of the 2018 crop, released in January (224.3 million metric tons), the production estimate increased by 0.8%. Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products of this group, together, accounted for 92.8% of the production estimate and for 86.8% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 2.0% for soybeans and reduction of 7.1% in the corn area and of 3.3% in the rice area. Concerning production, there were decreases of 2.2% for soybeans, 13.8% for corn and 5.7% for rice.

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Technical information: The estimate for the agricultural harvest in January 2018 brings an updated list of the products surveyed, from 36 to 27 items. The following products were excluded: pineapple, garlic, onions, coconut, guarana, apple, mallow, black pepper and sisal/agave. The changes were due to the loss of economic relevance of some of those products over time.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution:  Central-West (97.4 million metric tons), South (79.7 million metric tons), Southeast (22.0 million metric tons), Northeast (18.7 million metric tons) and North (8.4 million metric tons). The comparison with the last crops registered increases of 4.4% in the Northeast and decreases of 8.1% in the Central-West, of 5.1% in the South, of 7.9% in the Southeast and of 5.8% in the North. In relation to the production obtained in 2017, the highlights in the January's estimate that obtained positive change were: upland cotton seed, (12.9%), cacao nuts (27.2%), coffee beans - arabica (18.5%), coffee beans - canephora (3.9%), bean seeds 2nd crop (10.2%), wheat grains (44.5%). The highlight with a negative change were: paddy rice (5.7%), potatoes 1st crop (10.8%), potatoes 2nd crop (3.8%), potatoes 3rd crop (15.8%), sugarcane (2.4%), bean grains 3rd crop (5.5%), corn grains 1st crop (14.7%), corn grains 2nd crop (13.4%) and soybeans in grain (2.2%).  

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The first production estimate of cotton reached 4.3 million metric tons, a growth of 12.9% over 2017. The planted area and the area to be harvested increased 16.3%. The average yield was estimated at 4,011 kg/ha – 3.0% less than the result of 2017, a year in which the weather conditions were favorable to crops. In the state of Mato Grosso, the main national producer, with 68.1% of the total to be produced, the expected yield is 2.9 million metric tons, 14.3% above 2017's result. The planted area grew 17.3% and the estimate for the average yield is a reduction of 2.5%. In the state, after the soybean harvest, producers intend to expand the area for cotton - second crop, but irregular rainfalls are hindering the harvesting process and delaying the plantation of cotton - second crop.

PADDY RICE - The first field estimate for the 2018 crops reported a planted area of approximately 2.0 million hectares, 3.6% lower than last year's. The estimated yield, of 11.7 million metric tons, and the estimated average yield, of 5,990 kg/ha, were lower (respectively, by 5.7% and 2.5%) if compared to the previous year's crops.

Rio Grande do Sul, the greatest producer in the country and responsible for 70.8% of the total to be harvested in 2018, estimated a production of 8.3 million metric tons in an area to be planted of 1.1 million hectares and an average yield of 7,722 kg/ha (below, respectively, by 2.2%, 4.7% and 2.5%, when compared to the previous year's crop). The average price of the 50kg sack of paddy rice is being negotiated at nearly R$ 37.00, below the value negotiated in the same period of 2017.

POTATO - The production estimate must be 10.1% lower in relation to 2017, it might reach 3.9 million metric tons. The planted area and area to be harvested presented a retraction of 7.6% and the yield, of 29,684 kg/ha, was estimated with a reduction of 2.7%. The crop in 2017 received a strong pressure from prices, which were high, as well as from the weather conditions, which were very favorable, with more rainfalls in the main producing states.

For 2018, the price framework is not so favorable; moreover, the weather conditions still are uncertain. However, for summer crops, the rain has been always present, notably in the South and Southeast Regions, which should contribute with 96.1% to the national production for the time being. The first crop of potatoes should account for 45.6% of the production. Minas Gerais with 32.3% of the total, Paraná with 22.6%, São Paulo with 20.5%, Rio Grande do Sul with 9.6%, Goiás with 5.9% and Santa Catarina with 4.2% are the main Federation Units to produce potatoes. Those states should account together for 95.1% of the production of the country in 2018. 

BANANA - With a production estimated at 6.9 million metric tons, a reduction of 3.7% in relation to 2017, the fruit is cultivated in all Federation Units. São Paulo, with a contribution of 16.8% to the national production, Bahia (14.2%), Minas Gerais (11.8%) and Santa Catarina (10.4%) are the major producers. In São Paulo and in Paraná, the average yields (from 21 571 kg/ha and 24 402 kg/ha, respectively) are the greatest in the country.

CACAO NUT - The production estimate reached 272.7 thousand metric tons, a growth of 27.2% in relation to 2017. The data reflect the recovery of the production in Bahia which, in 2017, due to the unfavorable weather conditions, produced just 83,9 thousand metric tons of cacao, being surpassed for the first time by Pará, which produced 115.2 thousand metric tons. For 2018, 143.1 thousand metric tons are expected for Bahia, an increment of 70.6%. The cacao production in Brazil depends on the performance of the crops in those two states, which should account together for 94.7% of the production in the country in 2018.

COFFEE BEAN -  The estimate for 2018 reached 3.2 million metric tons, or 53.2 million 60 kg sacks, a high of 14.9% in relation to 2017. Despite the reduction of 11.2% in the planted area and of 1.5% in the area to be harvested, the average yield must grow 16.8%.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate reached 2.5 million metric tons, or 41.4 million 60 kg sacks, a growth of 18.5%. The planted area presents a retraction of 10.1%; the area to be harvested, a decrease of 2.3%, and the average yield, an increase of 21.2%, due to the positive biannual results of the crops in the current year. In Minas Gerais, the biggest Brazilian producer of arabica, the production was estimated at 1.8 million metric tons, a growth of 18.0% in relation to 2017, with the average yield advancing from 1,502 kg/ha to 1,896 kg/ha, an increase of 26.2%.

For coffea canephora or conillon, the estimated production reached 708 thousand metric tons, a rise of 3.9% over the previous year. Despite the reduction of 15.0% in the planted area, the area to be harvested and the average yield recorded growth of 1.1% and 2.7%, respectively. Production must grow significantly in Espírito Santo, the biggest Brazilian producer, probably contributing with 71.5% to the national total, due to crop recovery. The state estimated a production of 506.2 thousand metric tons of conillon, or 8.4 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 33.5%, with the average yield reaching 1,918 kg/ha, a growth of 29.9%.

CASHEW NUT - The production estimate was of 210.8 thousand metric tons, an increase of 56.7% in relation to 2017, driven by the recovery in Ceará's production, which estimated a production of 129.7 thousand metric tons (increase of 54.4%). The estimated average yield is of 373 kg/ha, due to the positive weather forecast for this year, since , in 2017, the municipalities located in Ceará faced severe rainfall scarcity. The state is the biggest producer, with an estimated participation of 61.5% to the national overall.

BEAN GRAIN - With a production estimate of 3.4 million metric tons, beans records a growth of 3.2% in relation to 2017. The first crop of the product was estimated at 1.6 million metric tons, contributing with 46.4% to the total production of bean grains. This production estimate is 0.8% bigger than the production of 2017. As to bean 2nd crop, the production estimate was of 1.3 million metric tons, indicating a rise of 10.2% in relation to 2017 and representing 38.5% of the total production of the country. For the average yield, there is an estimate of a 10.1% increase and for the planted area, a decrease of 4.8%. For beans 3rd crop the forecast is a reduction of 5.5% in the production in relation to 2017, being estimated at 513.9 thousand metric tons. The estimate of the planted are should decrease 5.2% and, the estimated average yield, 0.4%, in relation to the same planting period in 2017. The third crop represents 15.1% of the total beans produced in the Country.

CORN GRAIN - Production is estimated at 85.8 million metric tons, 13.8% lower than last year's. The fall in grain prices served as a disincentive to the planting and the purchase of inputs, which may compromise productivity in several regions. The estimated area planted and to be harvested in the country is close to 16.6 million hectares, a reduction of 7.9% and 7.1%, respectively, when compared to 2017. The first harvest should contribute with 26, 5 million tons, 30.9% of the total to be produced during the year. The planted area and the area to be harvested were estimated at 5.3 million hectares, in the same order, showing reductions of 6.8% and 5.2%. The production of second-crop corn was estimated at 59.3 million metric tons, 13.4% below the previous year’s result. Estimates indicate a planted area of ​​11.3 million hectares and an average yield of 5,246 kg/ha – reductions, respectively, of 8.4% and 6.0%. The delay of the rains in the second half of 2017 caused the extension of soybean planting and reduced the period for the production of second corn crop.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The first production estimate for 2018 was 112.4 million metric tons, a 2.2% decrease compared to the 2017 harvest. Despite the expectation of a good harvest in 2018, the result should be below the volumes reached in 2017, when the extremely favorable climate and high investments in crops provided a record crop for the country. The area planted with the legume is expected to reach 34.6 million hectares, an increase of 1.8% over 2017. With corn in the low season during 2017, soybean production was once again more appealing to producers in the first crop season, with the resumption of part of the area destined for the 1st crop in 2017.

The crop should represent a participation of approximately 49.7% in the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2018. The average yield estimate presented a reduction of 4.1%, reaching 3,253 kg/ha. Despite the delay in planting, as a consequence of the late rains, the constant rainfalls in December and January in the main producing states have favored the crop growth. At the moment, attention is drawn to the harvest period, when losses can occur due to the excessive rain in these same regions.

Mato Grosso should again lead the national production, with a 27.3% share, totaling 30.7 million metric tons. There was a 1.1% increase in the planted area, totaling 9.4 million hectares, while the volume to be harvested in 2018 increased by 0.8% in relation to the previous year.  

TOMATO – A product of high price change, in terms of seasonality, the estimate of tomato production was 4.5 million metric tons, an increase of 3.1% in relation to 2017. The planted area, of 64.6 thousand hectares, presents decline of 0.2%, while the average yield increased by 3.2%. São Paulo, with 20.8% of the country's production and Goiás, with 32.0%, are the major producers of the fruit.

WHEAT GRAIN - The first estimate of the national production of wheat for 2018 was of 6.1 million metric tons, in an area to be planted of 2.3 million hectares and an average yield of 2,668 kg/ha, increasing, respectively, by 20.0%, 44.5% and 20.3%, when compared to the data from the previous crops. The South Region must account for 89.9% of the production. Paraná, responsible for 63.2% of the national production, estimated a production of 3.9 million metric tons in an area to be harvest of 1.4 million hectares, expecting an average yield of 2,852 kg/ha, increasing respectively by 74.9%, 41.2% and 23.9%, when compared to the data of the previous crops. In Rio Grande do Sul, the current estimate of the planted area is of 691.6 thousand hectares and for the production, it is of 1.5 million metric tons. The estimate for the average yield, of 2,177 kg/ha is 22.7% bigger.  

GRAPE -The Brazilian production must achieve 1.4 million metric tons, a decrease of 16.1% in relation to 2017. Both the planted area and the average yield recorded reduction of 3.1% and 13.8%, respectively. In Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer and responsible for 59.2% of the total to be harvested by the country, the production estimate was of 834.2 thousand metric tons, a retraction of 12.8% in relation to 2017, a year in which the production of Rio Grande do Sul recovered from the unfavorable weather of 2016, which led to production fall. In Bahia, another important state in the production of grapes, the estimate reached 57.2 thousand metric tons, an increase of 12.0%. 

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.