The prices of the mining and manufacturing industries rose 1.50% in September 2017, above the level reported in August (0.29%). Nineteen out of the 24 activities registered a positive price change, against 12 last month. The cumulative index in the year hit 0.48%, against -1.00% in August.

The Producer Price Index - IPP of the Mining and Manufacturing Industries measures the evolution of the prices of products "at the factory gate", free from taxes and freight, and encompasses information by major economic category, i.e., capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods (durable and semi and non-durable). The complete publication of the IPP can be accessed here. 

Nineteen out of the 24 activities registered positive price changes, against 12 last month.

The four biggest changes were reported among the products of the following industrial activities: mining and quarrying industries (14.05%), oil refining and ethanol products (4.47%), toiletries , soaps and cleaning products (2.64%) and other chemicals (2.35%).

In terms of influence between September and August 2017, the highlights were: petroleum refining and ethanol products (0.47 p.p.), mining and quarrying industries (0.46 p.p.), other chemicals (0.22 p.p.) and basic metals (0.15 p.p.).

The cumulative index in the year – September 2017 against December 2016 – hit 0.48%, against -1.00% in August 2017. The activities that registered the biggest percentage changes in this indicator were: food products (-8.27%), oil refining and ethanol products (7.72%), basic metals (6.54%) and pulp and paper (6.06%).

Considering this indicator, the most influential sectors were: food products (-1.77 p.p.), oil refining and ethanol products (0.77 p.p.), basic metals (0.48 p.p.) and motor vehicles (0.40 p.p.).

The price change was 2.68% compared with September 2016, against 1.64% in August 2017. The four biggest price changes were reported in the mining and quarrying industries (20.68%), oil refining and ethanol products (11.39%), basic metals (10.96%) and food products (-7.60%). Considering this indicator, the most influential sectors were: food products (--1.65 p.p.), oil refining and ethanol products (1.13 p.p.), basic metals (0.79 percentage points) and mining and quarrying industries (0.64 p.p.).

The 1.50% price change in September 2017 against August influenced the Major Economic Categories in the following way (Table 4): -0.29% in capital goods; 2.24% in intermediate goods; and 0.78% in consumer goods, of which 0.48% in durable consumer goods and 0.88% in semi and non-durable consumer goods.

The influence of the result of the overall industry (1.50%) on the Major Economic Categories was: -0.03 p.p. of capital goods, 1.25 p.p. of intermediate goods and 0.28 p.p. of consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, 0.24 p.p. was due to price changes observed in semi-and non-durable consumer goods and 0.04 p.p., in durable consumer goods.

As to the cumulative index in the year – current month against December last year –, price changes in industry reached a change of -0.48% up to September, of which the change of 0.89% was relative to capital goods (with an influence of 0.08 p.p.), 1.03% to intermediate goods (0.57 p.p.) and -0.47% to consumer goods (-0.17 p.p.). In this last case, the result was influenced by durable consumer goods (0.31 p.p.) and by semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.48 p.p.).

The cumulative index in the last 12 months in industry reached 2.68% in September, with the following changes: capital goods, 2.61% (0.22 p.p.); intermediate goods, 3.11% (1.73 p.p.); and consumer goods, 2.03% (0.72 p.p.), being the influence of durable consumer goods of 0.41 p.p. and of semi and non-durable consumer goods, 0.32 p.p.

Six sectors stand out in September

Mining and quarrying industries: rise of 14.05%, representing an acceleration over August, when prices had already risen 6.21%. As a result, the cumulative rate in the year returned to the positive side (0.69%), which was not reported since April 2017. The prices rose 20.68% in relation to September 2016.

Food products: the prices recorded the eighth negative change in the year in September
(-0.19%). Considering these figures, the cumulative rates in the year and in the last 12 months reached the most negative changes in the time series: -8.27% and -7.60%, respectively. In the cumulative index, 2017 posted the three most intense negative changes in the time series. The fourth one was in March 2013
(-5.23%). Initiated in December 2010, the cumulative index in 12 month registered only five negative figures, being four of them in the last four months.

Soybean derivatives positively impacted the result, which was offset by the price changes in "crystallized sugar" and "sterilized milk/UHT/long life milk". These four products influenced 0.00 p.p.

The increase in the prices of soybean derivatives are in line with the off-season period, coupled with an accelerated foreign demand. On the other hand, the prices of "crystallized sugar" and "sterilized milk/UHT/long life milk" dropped as a result of the sugarcane season and bigger dairy production.

Oil refining and ethanol products: along 2017, the prices of this sector changed positively in four months and negatively in five others. Even changing 4.47% in September over August, the time series reached the highest result in terms of the cumulative index in the year (7.72%) and also the cumulative index in 12 months (11.39%).

The four products that mostly influenced the September figure over August accounted for 4.04 p.p. in 4.47%. All these products belong to oil refining.

In terms of influence, this sector stood out in the three indicators: in M/M-1, it ranked in the first position (0.47 p.p. in 1.50%); in the cumulative, it was second placed (0.77 p.p. in 0.48%); and in the cumulative in 12 months, it was second placed again (1.13 p.p. in 2.68%).

Other chemicals: the prices in this sector changed, on average, 2.35%, reversing the drop in August (-2.12%) and causing the cumulative prices in the year to return to the positive side (1.68%). The cumulative index in the last 12 months stayed at 1.94%, the highest value since March 2016 (5.34%). These figures were due to a rise pressure on the prices of chemicals, as the operation in a number of plants were interrupted as a result of recent climate issues.

In terms of positive price change, "styrene", "unsaturated propene (propylene)" and "ammonium sulphate or urea" stood out and, in the opposite direction, "oxygen". In terms of influence, all the four highlighted products influenced positively: "NPK-based manure and fertilizers", "herbicides for agricultural use", "polypropylene (PP)" and "unsaturated propene (propylene)" influenced 1.36 p.p. in 2.35%.

Basic metals: a rise of 1.87%, the sixth positive result in the year, breaking a series of three consecutive negative changes. As a result, this sector posted a cumulative change of 6.54% in the year and, in the last 12 months, of 10.96%, the third highest change noticed in the survey in both cases. In a simple comparison, in September 2016 the basic metals sector recorded a positive change of 0.05% in the cumulative index over 12 months.

The products that mostly influenced the month-over-month figures were those with the highest weight in this activity, three of them with positive results ("unwrought non-alloy aluminum", "uncoated steel carbon cold-rolled coil") and only one with a negative change ("carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates"). Among the 22 products selected for the survey, the four with a highlight in the analysis of month-over-month influences, previously mentioned, represented 1.28 p.p. of the monthly change, i. e., the other 18 products had an influence of 0.59 p.p.

Motor vehicles: The change in this sector was of 0.68% in September when compared with August, reversing the signal reported last month and registering the third biggest increase in the year, only behind that of January (0.74%) and May (1.35%). As a result, the cumulative change in the year reached 3.69% (it had been 2.39% in September 2016). This sector recorded a cumulative change of 5.21% over the last 12 months, the second highest change for September along the time series, only lower than that of September 2015 (8.00%).

Among the four products that mostly influenced this month, all of them positively impacted on the index: "flex-fuel, gasoline or ethanol passenger car with any engine power output" – partly explained by the fact that some car manufacturers began to sell next-year models this month –, "tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers", "bus bodies" and "chassis with engine for buses or for trucks", considering that only the two first ones are among the four products with the biggest weight in this activity. The four products that mostly impacted the monthly change influenced 0.60 p.p. As a result, the other 21 products of this activity completed the 0.68% change this month over the previous month.