In September, grain harvest expected to surpass 2016 figure by 30.3%
October 10, 2017 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 10, 2017 01h36 PM
Against the August figure (240.9 miillion metric tons), there was increase of 1.1 million metric tons (0.5%) and the aera increased by 143.6 thousand hectares (0.2%).
| September estimate for 2017 | 242.0 million metric tons |
| Change - August/September 2017 | 0.5% (1.1 million metric tons) |
| Change - 2017 harvest/2016 harvest | 30.3% (56.2 million metric tons) |
The September estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2017 was 242.0 millin metric tons, an increase of 30.3% (or 56.2 million metric tons) in relation to the 2016 figure (185.8 miillion metric tons). The estimated area to be harvested (61.2 million ha) increased 7.3% against the 2016 figure (57.1 milllion ha), as informed by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA).
Rice, corn and soybeans Oare the three main crops in this group and account, together, for 93.7% of the output estimatr and for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. Against 2026, there was increase of 2.2% in the area for soybeans, of 19.4% in the area for corn and of 3.9% in the area for rice. In terms of output, soybeans recorded an increase of 19.5%; rice, of 16.2%; and corn, of 55.2%.
A comparison of data from the Survey of Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) relative to 2016 with data from the December 2016 edition of the LSPA presents a difference of only 0.6% for output, which corresponds to 1.1 million. Click here to see the entire LSPA publication.
In the evaluation for 2017, Mato Grosso is the main nationan grain producer, with 26.2% of the output, followed by Paraná (17.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.1%), which, together, account for 58.5% of the total mount expected. The group of ten major producer also has the states of Goiás (9.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.9%), Minas Gerais (5.9%), São Paulo (4.0%), Bahia (3.4%), Santa Catarina (2.9%) and Maranhão (1.8%).
| September estimate against 2016 output Output and annual change by product |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | Output in 2016 (t) | Output in 2017 (t) | Change (%) |
| Upland cotton | 3,462,647 | 3,825,902 | 10.5 |
| Peanuts (1st crop) | 509,309 | 532,082 | 4.5 |
| Peanuts (2nd crop) | 55,374 | 9,833 | -82.2 |
| Rice | 10.622,189 | 12,340,979 | 16.2 |
| Oats | 878,713 | 889,760 | 1.3 |
| Potato (1st crop) | 1,843,955 | 1,967,239 | 6.7 |
| Potato (2nd crop) | 1,133,033 | 1,218,889 | 7.6 |
| Potato (3rd crop) | 874,410 | 1,006,396 | 15.1 |
| Cacao | 213,843 | 213,532 | -0.1 |
| Coffea arabica | 2,548,304 | 2,143,222 | -15.9 |
| Coffea canephora | 470,747 | 614,349 | 30.5 |
| Sugarcane | 768,678,382 | 719,364,603 | -6.4 |
| Onion | 1,656,916 | 1,703,937 | 2.8 |
| Barley | 379,375 | 397,704 | 4.8 |
| Beans (1st crop) | 1,130,479 | 1,580,595 | 39.8 |
| Beans (2nd crop) | 944,178 | 1,256,998 | 33.1 |
| Beans (3rd crop) | 541,169 | 530,625 | -1.9 |
| Orange | 17,251,291 | 17,304,035 | 0.3 |
| Castor beans | 24,620 | 11,909 | -51.6 |
| Cassava | 21,082,867 | 20,766,949 | -1.5 |
| Corn (1nd crop) | 24,462,981 | 31,176,489 | 27.4 |
| Corn (2nd crop) | 39,680,433 | 68,370,974 | 72.3 |
| Soybeans | 96,296,714 | 115,062,174 | 19.5 |
| Sorghum | 1,175,759 | 2,145,532 | 82.5 |
| Wheat | 6,834,421 | 5,203,916 | -23.9 |
| Triticale | 46,253 | 46,716 | 1.0 |
September estimate for the 2017 harvest surpasses August figure by 0.5%
The following estimates stand out in terms of output, against figures of August: beans-2nd crop (3.8%), beans-3rd crop (3.5%), cassava (3.3%), upland cotton (2.5%), sorghum (2.3%), orange (1.7%), corn-2nd crop (1.5%), corn-1st crop (0.3%), beans -1st crop (-1.0%), coffea canephora (-1.3%), coffea arabica (-4.4%), wheat (4.4%), cacao (-4.8%) and barley (-6.8%).
UPLAND COTTON (seed) – Cotton has been entirely harvested. The expected national output estimated in September was 2.5% above the August figure, with an average yield 3.0% bigger. Output remained stable in Bahia, whereas in Mato Grosso it increased 3.7%. The overall amount of cotton expected at national level is 3.8 million metric tons.
CACAO (nuts) – The September estimate points to a total 213.5 thousand metric tons of cacao, 4.8% less than in August. Planted area and the area to be harvested decreased by 2.8% and 3.2%, respectively, whereas the average yield, of 356 kg/ha, was 1.7% lower. Those data have been affected by the September estimates from Bahia, which recorded decreases of 4.4% in the area to be harvested and of 7.1% in average yield and of 11.3% in the expected output last month.
COFFEE (bean) – The estimated output of coffee reached 2.8 million metric tons, and recorded a decrease of 3.8% versus the August figure. In September, the estimated output of coffea arabica fell by 4.4% and that of coffea canephora, by 1.3% (conillon). The former is expected to reach a total 2.1 million metric tons. Minas Gerais, the main producer of coffea arabica, had its output estimate reduced by 5.2%, to 1.5 million metric tons. In São Paulo, the estimate fell by 1.3%, to 262.4 thousand metric tons. Paraná also reduced its oputput estimate by 1.5%. Coffea canephora (conillon) is expected to amount to 614.4 thousand metric tons, with a decrease of 1.3% in relation to August. Bahia, the third main producer, had its output estimate reduced by 10.9%, and is expected to produce 105.9 thousand metric tons. The state is responsible for 12.0% of overall amount to be harvested in 2017.
WINTER CROPS (grain) – The September estimate for wheat reached 5.2 million metric tons, with a decrease of 4.4% in relation to the previous month. In Paraná, the expected output of 2.3 million metric tons, the area to be harvested, of 962.0 thousand ha and the average yield of 2,385 kg/ha, fell, respectively, by 11.%, 0.% and 0.5%, against August figures. Harvest may be concluded in about 65% of the area in this state. Regarding barley, the expected output for 2017 is 397.7 thousand metric tons, 6.8% less than in the previous year.
BEAN (seed) – The estimated output of beans was 3.4 million metric tons. Planted area increased 2.3% versus the figure in August, and the average yield fell 0.2%. The main producers in terms of participation in the national output are Paraná (21.2%), Minas Gerais (16.6%) and Goiás (10.9%). The 1st crop of beans is estimated at 1.6 million metric tons, which means reduction of 1.0% in relation to the August result. That decrease may have resulted from the reevaluation of estimates for the state of São Paulo, where there was decrease by 18,250 t, that is, of 9.9% since August.
For the 2nd crop of beans, the estimated increase against the August figure is of 3.8%, considering increases in average yield (0.5%) and in harvested area (3. 4%). There has also been a reduction in the estimated output of Pernambuco (27.5%) and of Alagoas (43.3%), because of climate problems. The increase in the output estimate for the 2nd crop of beans resulted, mainly, from the figures in Minas Gerais (4.2%), São Paulo (11.5%), Mato Grosso (9.9%), Bahia (18.7%) and Goiás (47.9%), which recorded increment in planted area and in average yield.
Considering the 3rd crop of beans, the estimated increase of output hits 3.5% against the previous estimate. In Minas Gerais that figure is 4.3% higher, whereas São Paulo recorded a decrease of 19.7%. Goiás is the second main state in terms of output, with an expected increase of 4.4%. In Mato Grosso a highlight is the expansion of plated area, which may lead to an output 27% bigger than in the previous month.
ORANGE – The estimated output of orange reached 17.3 million, with an increase of 1.7% in relation to the August figure. Although the harvested area has been reduced by 6.0%, average yield was 8.2% up. São Paulo is the biggest producer of orange in the country, and is expected to account for 75.0% of the national production in 2017. The overall state production is expected to hit 13.0 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.4% against the previous month. Harvested area fell by 8.7%, whereas the average yield increased 12.2%.
CASSAVA – the estimated output of cassava was 20.8 million, with an increase of 3.3% in relation to the previous year. Those data have been affected by output increases in Bahia and in Paraná. Cassava figures had been recalculated in Bahia, with an increase of 21.6% of the area to be harvested and of 19.5% of output, now expected to hit 2.1 million metric tons. The output estimate of Paraná increased from 2.8 million metric tons, in August, to 3.1 million metric tons in September. That means a total 11.9%, and reflects the increase of 16.3% in planted area and in the afrea to be harvested.
CORN (grain) – With the new positive adjustment in the area to be harvested and in the average yield in the 2nd crop, the national output of corn in 2017 is expected to total 99.5 million metric tons, an increase of 1.1% against the August figure. Corn-3rd crop also recorded an increase of 0.3%, with an expected output of 31.2 million metric tons, mainly affected by increases in the estimated production of Paraná (0.9%) and São Paulo (2.3%).
In Goiás and in Paraná, the average yield of conr-2nd crop fell by 3.3% and 1.6%. The impact in the estimates of both states, together, totaled 479.2 thousand metric tons less than in the August estimate. However, that decrease was compensated by increase in Mato Grosso, 1.2 million, mainly due to the revision of 3.2% in the state average yield. Also important was the increment of 352.3 thousand in São Paulo, after a revision of 12.4% in average yield and of 3.7% in the area harvested in the state.
SORGHUM (grain) – The harvest of sorghum has been concluded. Between August and September, there were increases of 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively, in output and in the average yield of this crop, whereas planted area and harvested area recorded decreases of 0.4%. The country expects to harvest a total 2.1 million metric tons. The average yield of Goiás increased 1.6%, whereas planted and harvested areas fell by 1.5%. The state is the main sorghum producer in the country, with an output of 778.1 million. Output in Minas Gerais increased 7.3% and average yield, 6.6%, whereas the areas for planting and harvesting got 0.6% bigger. A total 720.5 thousand metric tons is the expected output from Minas Gerais.
