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Retail sales changed -0.3% in July

September 13, 2016 02h08 PM | Last Updated: January 22, 2018 03h33 PM

 

Period Retail Extended Retail
Volume of sales Nominal revenue Volume of sales Nominal revenue 
July/June*
-0.3
0.7
-0.5
0.7
Quarterly moving average*
-0.3
0.7
-0.4
0.5
July 2016 / July 2015
-5.3
6.7
-10.2
-1.3
Cumulative in 2016
-6.7
4.9
-9.4
-0.8
Cumulative in 12 month
-6.8
3.7
-10.3
-2.1
* seasonally-adjusted

In July 2016, the national retail trade recorded a change of -0.3% in the volume of sales, after an advance of 0.3% in June, whereas the for nominal revenue, the change of 0.7% was the fourth positive rate in a row - both the comparisons in relation to the previous month, in the non-adjusted series. As a result, in the quarterly moving average, the volume of sales changed -0.3%, whereas the nominal revenue remained with a positive figure (0.7%).

In the comparison with July 2015, in the non-seasonally adjusted series, the total national retail sales recorded, for the volume of sales, a 5.3% drop, with a cumulative decrease of 6.7% in the first seven months of 2016. The annualized rate (cumulative indicator in the last twelve months), having fallen by 6.8% in July 2016, presented the sharpest loss in the time series (started in 2001) for this comparison. For these indicators, the nominal revenue of sales keeps registering positive changes: 6.7% over July 2015, 4.9% for the cumulative index in the year, and 3.7% in the cumulative last 12 months.

The extended retail trade (retail plus the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material) recorded a change of -0.5% in relation to the previous month (adjusted series) for the volume of sales, whereas the nominal revenue, with a rate of 0.7%, remained positive for three months in a row. In relation to July 2015, the volume of sales recorded a decrease of 10.2%. For the cumulative rates, the results were -9.4% in the year and of -10.3% in the last 12 months.

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Six of the eight activities presented negative results

The change of -0.3% in the volume of sales, from June to July 2016, in the seasonally adjusted series, had predominance of negative results, reaching six of the eight segments surveyed in the retail trade. The activities of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.3%) and Fuels and lubricants (-0.3%), which together account for about 60% of the overall rate, recorded the same change of the retail overall (-0.3%). The other activities, with a decline in the volume of sales, recorded negative rates above the national average: Textiles, wearing apparel and footwear (-5.8%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-1.2%); Furniture and household appliances (-1.0%); and Other personal and household articles (-0.9%). On the other hand, Office, computer and communication equipment and material (5.9%) and Pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles (0.7%) showed improvement in the volume of sales compared to June 2016.

Considering the extended retail trade, the change was -0.5%, the fifth consecutive negative rate for this type of comparison. This result was influenced by the 2.5% reduction in Construction material and -0.3% in Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories, both comparisons with June 2016.


TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF THE VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE ACCORDING TO GROUPS ODF ACTIVITIES: PMC - July 2016
ACTIVITIES MONTH/PREVIOUS MONTH (1) MONTH/SAME MONTH AYEAR AGO CUMULATIVE
Change Rate (%) Change Rate (%) Change Rate (%)
MAY
JUN
JUL
MAI
JUN
JUL
YEAR
12 MONTHS
RETAIL TRADE (2)
-0.8
0.3
-0.3
-9.0
-4.8
-5.3
-6.7
-6.8
1 - Fuel and lubricants
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-10.8
-9.0
-9.9
-9.8
-9.8
2 - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverage and tobacco
0.2
0.3
-0.3
-5.5
-1.7
-0.1
-2.9
-3.1
2.1 - Super and hypermarkets
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-5.3
-2.6
-0.9
-3.1
-3.3
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear
1.6
0.6
-5.8
-13.6
-3.9
-14.2
-11.6
-11.8
4 - Furniture and household appliances
-1.5
-0.4
-1.0
-15.2
-10.7
-12.4
-14.4
-15.8
4.1 - Furniture
-
-
-
-12.1
-12.4
-12.8
-12.5
-16.4
4.2 - Household applinaces
-
-
-
-16.5
-9.9
-12.2
-15.2
-15.5
5 - Pharmaceutical, med. and orthop. articles and toiletries
-0.8
-0.1
0.7
-2.5
-2.1
-3.2
-0.3
0.2
6 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationary
-2.4
0.5
-1.2
-24.4
-18.3
-18.6
-17.2
-16.2
7 - Office and communication material and equipment
-2.1
-3.4
5.9
-14.4
-18.3
-12.9
-15.8
-14.6
8 - Other personal and household articles
-2.3
0.8
-0.9
-15.4
-8.4
-11.6
-12.2
-9.6
EXTENETED RETAIL TRADE (3)
-0.4
-0.2
-0.5
-10.2
-8.1
-10.2
-9.4
-10.3
9 - Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories
0.6
-1.3
-0.3
-13.2
-15.2
-20.0
-14.7
-17.7
10- Construction material
-0.1
1.2
-2.5
-10.6
-9.6
-12.6
-12.9
-12.9
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series. (2) The retail trade indicator comprises the results of activities 1 to 8.
(3) The extended retail trade indicator comprises the results of activities 1 to 10.


In the comparison with July 2015, total retail trade fell 5.3% with a spread of negative results reaching all eight activities surveyed. The results, in order of importance to the overall rate were: Furniture and household appliances (-12.4%) and other personal and household articles (-11.6%) share the main negative impact on the result of July, followed by Fuels and lubricants (- 9.9%) and Textiles, wearing apparel and footwear (-14.2%) and, with a lower negative influence on the overall result of retail are Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-18.6%); Office, computer and communication equipment and material (- 12.9%); and Pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles (-3.2%). The volume of sales of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.1%) remained practically stable compared to July 2015 and did not push, this month, the overall indicator of retail sales.

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL RADE BY ACTIVITIES: PMC - July 2016
(Indicators of the volume of sales)
Activities RETAIL TRADE EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
Change rate (%) Absolute composition of the rate(p.p.) Change rate (%) Absolute composition of the rate (p.p.)
      Overall Rate
-5.3
-5.3
-10.2
-10.2
1 - Fuel and lubricants
-9.9
-1.0
-9.9
-0.7
2 - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverage and tobacco
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear
-14.2
-1.1
-14.2
-0.7
4 - Furniture and household applinaces
-12.4
-1.3
-12.4
-0.8
5 - Pharmaceutical, med. and orthop. articles and toiletries
-3.2
-0.3
-3.2
-0.2
6 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationary
-18.6
-0.1
-18.6
-0.1
7 - Office and communication material and equipment
-12.9
-0.2
-12.9
-0.1
8 - Other personal and household articles
-11.6
-1.3
-11.6
-0.8
9 - Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories
-
 
-20.0
-5.7
10- Construction material
-
 
-12.6
-1.2
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the participation of the sector's results in the formation of the overall rate.

With a decline of 12.4% in the volume of sales compared to July 2015, Furniture and household appliances exerted the greatest negative impact on the overall rate of the retail, accumulating in the first seven months of the year -14.4 % and in the last 12 months, -15.8%.  Because it is an activity whose sales are related to credit conditions, the behavior of this sector has been affected by the rise in the financing costs.

The segment of other personal and household articles, down 11.6% compared to July 2015, also had the largest negative contribution to the overall result of retail trade.  In the cumulative rate over the seven months of the year and over the last 12 months, the rates were respectively -12.2% and -9.6%.  This segment includes a diverse mix of items, many of them of household replacement, such as bed and bath, i. e., items whose consumption can be postponed.

Fuels and lubricants, with a change of -9.9% in the volume of sales, compared to July 2015, were responsible for the second largest impact on the overall result of the retail trade. In terms of cumulative performance, change rates were -9.8%, both the first seven months of the year and for the last 12. The economic downturn and fuel prices rising above the general inflation are some of the factors that have influenced the behavior of this segment.

Textiles, wearing apparel and footwear, which decreased in terms of the volume of sales by -14.2% compared to the same month last year, represented the third major negative contribution to the overall retail rate, even with industry prices of apparel growing below the overall inflation.  In cumulative terms, the results were -11.6% for the first seven months of the year and -11.8% for the last 12 months.

The segment of Pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles, down 3.2%, was the fourth most significant contribution to the overall result. In terms of cumulative change, rates were -0.3% in the year, but the comparison in the last 12 months remains in the positive range (0.2%). The increase of prices of pharmaceutical products above the general price index is the main factor explaining the recent negative performance of the sector

The segment Office, computer and communication equipment and material, responsible for the fifth negative contribution to the overall rate of retail sales, registered a change of -12.9% in the volume of sales in relation July 2016 against July 2015. Sales' results in cumulative terms were: -15.8% in the cumulative rate over the year and -14.6% over the last 12 months - well below the retail average.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery, with a rate of -18.6% in the volume of sales over July 2015, had the sixth highest contribution to the overall result.  In the cumulative rate over the seven months of the year and over the last 12 months, the rates were respectively -17.2% and -16.2%. The prices of stationery products, with a cumulative growth over 12 months above the general price index partly explain the downward trend of this activity. The other possible reason is the budget constraint of households. In addition, concerning newspapers and magazines, the drops are attributable to the replacement of printed products for electronic media.

Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with a change of -0.1% in July over the same month of the previous year, did not push the overall index. This activity had its performance influenced by the reduction in the usual real wage bill of the employed persons, and by the price behavior of food at home that grew well above the overall index accumulated in 12 months.  In terms of cumulative results, the change rates were: -2.9% for the cumulative index in the first seven months of the year and -3.1% for the last 12 months.

Considering the extended retail trade, which includes in addition to the retail, the activities Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories and Construction material, registered in July 2016 a fall of 10.2% in the volume of sales, compared to the same month of the previous year. This performance reflected, above all, the behavior of sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories, which showed a 20.0% decrease over July 2015. The cumulative rates of this activity were -14.7% in seven months and 17.7% in the last 12 months. As for the Construction material segment, changes for the volume of sales were -12.6% over July 2015, and rates of -12.9% for both the cumulative index in seven months and in the last 12 months. In both segments, the results were influenced by the slower pace of the economic activity, lower supply of credit and restricted family budget.

 

Volume of sales fell in 16 of the 27 Federation Units

In July 2016, sixteen of the 27 Federation Units recorded decline in the volume of sales of the retail trade, compared to the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series The negative rates ranged from -3.5% in Mato Grosso to -0.1% in Minas Gerais. In Sergipe, the volume of sales remained stable in this comparison. On the other hand, increasing in the retail from June to July 2016, the highlights are: Roraima (4.0%) and Amazonas (3.4%).

Compared to July 2015, the reduction in the volume of sales also had a spread, reaching almost all 27 Federation Units, with the exception of Roraima (3.2%). The highlights, in terms of two-digit negative rates were: Amapá (-18.9%) and Pará (-15.5%).  As to the contribution to the rate of retail trade, the highlights in an increasing order are: São Paulo (-3,0%), Rio de January (-5,0%) and Bahia (-13,4%).

Considering the extended retail trade, the reduction of 10.2% compared to July 2015 reached all 27 states of the federation, especially, in terms of magnitude, for Amapá, with a drop of 17.1%. The negative performance of São Paulo (-7.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (-13.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (-10.0%) and Minas Gerais (-7.9%) were the major impacts on the overall rate of extended retail.