With the national output growing 0.5% from August to September 2016, in the seasonally adjusted series, there was expansion in 9 of the 14 places surveyed. The sharpest advance was recorded in Espírito Santo (9.0%), which offset the 7.0% loss seen in the previous month. Minas Gerais (2.0%), São Paulo (1.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (0.7%), the Northeast (0.6%), Amazonas (0.5%), Pará (0.5%), Rio de Janeiro (0.5%) and Pernambuco (0.2%) close the set of places with positive indexes in September 2016. On the other hand, Goiás (-3.3%) had the sharpest negative result this month and recorded the second month in a row of output decrease, accumulating a 7.7%. loss. The other negative rates were seen in Ceará (-1.9%) and in Bahia (-1.6%), whereas Paraná (0.0%) and Santa Catarina (0.0%) repeated the figure recorded in August. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Short-term Indicators of Industry

Regional Results 
September 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally Adjusted Series

Considering the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry declined 1.1% in the quarter ended in September 2016 against the previous month’s result, stressing the downward pace seen in August (-0.7%), when it halted three consecutive months of consecutive positive rates: May (0.7%), June (0.7%) and July (0.6%). In regional terms, also considering the marginal movement of this index, eleven places recorded negative rates, with a highlight to the declines reported by Goiás (-2.6%), Amazonas (-1.9%), Ceará (-1.7%), Santa Catarina (-1.4%), Bahia (-1.3%), Rio de Janeiro (-1.3%) and Paraná (-1.2%). On the other hand, Espírito Santo (1.2%) recorded the main expansion in September 2016.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector reduced 4.8%, in September 2016, showing negative figures in 13 out of the 15 places surveyed. This month, the most intense retreat was reported by Espírito Santo (-19.7%), pushed, to a great extent, by the reduced manufacturing in the mining and quarrying sector (pelletized iron ore). Goiás (-11.5%), Amazonas (-10.9%), Mato Grosso (-10.3%), Paraná (-9.1%), Bahia (-8.0%) and Ceará (-6.1%) also registered sharper negative results than the national  average (-4.8%), whereas Pernambuco (-3.4%), the Northeast (-2.8%), Minas Gerais (-1.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.0%), São Paulo (-0.3%) and Rio de Janeiro
(-0.1%) close the set of places with negative rates this month. On the other hand, Pará, with an expansion of 3.6%, recorded the steepest advance in September 2016, leveraged, to a large extent, by the positive behavior coming from the mining and quarrying sector (raw iron ores). Santa Catarina, with a slight positive change of 0.2%, also registered growth this month.

In a quarterly basis, the industrial sector, falling 5.5% in the third quarter of 2016, registered the tenth negative consecutive rate in this kind of comparison, but the least sharp since the October-December period of 2014 (-3.9%), both the comparisons against he same period of the previous year. The reduction of the magnitude in the total national industry, between the April-June period of 2016 (-6.6%) and the following quarter (-5.5%), was seen in eight of the fifteen places surveyed, with a highlight to the gains reported by Amazonas (from -11.6% to -7.7%), Pernambuco (from -6.5% to -2.7%), Paraná (from -7.8% to -4.1%), Rio de Janeiro (from -6.4% to -3.3%), Santa Catarina (from -3.2% to -1.1%) and São Paulo (from -3.7% to -1.7%). On the other hand, Mato Grosso (from 11.5% to -4.9%) and Bahia (from -3.5% to -13.0%) had the biggest pace of decline between the two periods.

In the cumulative indicator of the year, over the same period a year ago, the reduction in the national production reached three of the fifteen places surveyed, with three of them shrinking above the national average (-7.8%): Espírito Santo (-22.3%), Amazonas (-13.7%) and Pernambuco (-12.7%). Goiás (-7.5%), Minas Gerais (-6.9%), Paraná (-6.8%), Rio de Janeiro (-6.6%), São Paulo (-6.2%), Bahia (-4.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (-4.6%), Ceará (-4.6%), Santa Catarina (-4.2%), and the Northeast (-3.7%) close the set of places with negative result at the end of the nine months of the year. In these places, the lower dynamism was particularly influenced by factors related to the reduced manufacturing of capital goods (especially those oriented to transportation equipment – trucks and vehicles for transportation of goods); intermediate goods (car pieces, non-metallic mineral products, textiles, steel products, fabricated metal products, oil derivatives and mining and quarrying); durable consumer goods (cars, white and brown goods, motorcycles and furniture); and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (footwear, textiles, wearing apparel and beverages). On the other hand, Pará (10.2%) and Mato Grosso (5.0%) recorded increases in the cumulative index in the year, leveraged, to a great extent, by the positive behavior coming from mining and quarrying (raw iron ores), in the first place; and food products (frozen, cooled or fresh beef and animal feed), in the second one.

The cumulative index in the last twelve months, with the 8.8% drop in September 2016 for the total national industry, reduced the pace of decline over the one registered in June (-9.8%), July (-9.6%) and August (-9.3%). In regional terms, 13 out of the 15 places surveyed posted negative rates in September 2016, but ten registered greater dynamism against the index of last August. The main gains of pace between August and September were recorded by Rio Grande do Sul (-8.8% to -7.1%), São Paulo (-9.2% to -8.0%), Santa Catarina (-6.7% to -5.6%), Rio de Janeiro (-8.7% to -7.8%) and Minas Gerais (-8.2% to -7.5%), whereas Mato Grosso (7.5% to 5.1%), Espírito Santo (-18.6% to -20.2%) and Goiás (-5.7% to -6.8%) showed the greatest losses between the two periods.